The more time spent watching football, the more you realize that ‘NFL’ really does stand for ‘Not For Long’. It feels like we were chopping up training camp reports just last week, but here we are, already in Week 3. However, there are still 15 more glorious weeks to enjoy before we even get to the playoffs. Our sample size just increased by 50%, and we have a whole new slate of games to break down. Analytics have an additional data point, and we may have a few trends that are worth following. Time to go through the NFL betting trends that really matter for the Week 3 slate.
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How should I bet on the NFL this weekend? Week 3 Analytics & Trends
NFL Betting Analysis: Teams to Follow
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs have put up over 30 points in each of their first two games played this year. They have to head on the road to Miami for Week 3, but the Dolphins may have the worst roster in the league.
Teams have completed almost 80% of passes thrown against the Dolphins’ defense. The Dolphins have held up slightly against the run, but they don’t generate much of a pass rush and haven’t been able to stop anyone through the air. The Chiefs average +0.13 expected points per play. That mark is fourth in the league, and they’ve haven’t played against weak teams in the first two weeks.
What’s especially concerning is that the Dolphins have allowed opponents to generate points on 88.9% of drives that reach the red zone. Kansas City is converting at about a 60% rate in the red zone. If Patrick Mahomes and Kenneth Walker get close, they’re going to get points.
It’s hard to find an angle for the Miami defense in this matchup. The Dolphins are in a rebuilding year, and they’re expected to take a few lumps this year. This game is shaping up as a ‘learning experience.
Best Bets: Kansas City -11, Kansas City Over 28.5 points
Jacksonville Jaguars
The New England Patriots head to Jacksonville for a matchup with the Jaguars. Drake Maye has struggled against a Cover 6 defense in his career, and the Jaguars rely on Cover 6 as one of their key concepts. The goal of a Cover 6 is to limit plays over the top, and the Jaguars have a pass rush that’s capable of complementing a defense that works to get after the passer.
The concern here is that the Cover 6 relies on the defensive front to stop the run. New England can run the ball a little. The battle between the Jaguars’ defensive line and the Patriots’ offensive line is the key to this game. New England has to rely on a backup at right guard and looks a little soft in the middle.
The Jaguars should win up front, and they have more than enough on offense to do enough against the Patriots to win and cover. Jacksonville will need to use its ground game and motion to keep their offense in second-and-short and third-and-short against the New England pass rush and secondary. Avoiding the teeth of the New England defense is key, and Jacksonville runs an outside zone run scheme that should play to the edges and prevent the big New England interior from having an outsized impact.
Best Bet: Jacksonville -3
NFL Betting Analysis: Teams to Fade
Los Angeles Chargers
The Los Angeles Chargers have been lit up by Jacoby Brissett and Kirk Cousins in back-to-back weeks. This week? The Chargers have to travel cross-country to face the Buffalo Bills in the early window on Sunday.
The Buffalo Bills have the most efficient passing offense in the league. They average 9.43 yards per pass attempt. That’s the best mark in the league. The Bills can also stay on the field. They convert 57.1% of their third-down attempts. That’s third best in the league.
Bills quarterback Josh Allen is third in the league in EPA per dropback at +0.286. EPA per dropback stands for Expected Points Added per dropback. It’s an advanced football statistic that measures a quarterback’s efficiency by calculating the average net value of points they add or lose for their team every time they drop back to pass. Justin Herbert? He’s only at 0.021 EPA, one of the lowest marks among starting quarterbacks. We have one of the most efficient offenses in the league matching up with one of the least.
Also, the Chargers’ defensive strength is in the run game. The Bills’ passing game is so sharp that there may not be much of an effort to run the ball early. The game script for the Bills is to gash the Chargers early through the air, build up a lead, and then lean into the run to close the game out. However, a few turnovers from a sloppy Chargers offense may help in speeding the Bills towards victory. This game could get out of hand early and stay that way.
Best Bet: Bills -7, Bills Over 28.5 Points
Detroit Lions
The Detroit Lions have allowed 30 or more points in each of their first two games this year. Saints quarterback Tyler Shough threw for over 400 yards against the Lions’ pass defense, and Josh Allen did terrible, terrible things to the Lions in Week 2. Geno Smith and the New York Jets head to Detroit this weekend, and there is an angle to play on the Jets.
The Lions have the eighth-highest opponent success rate on passing attempts in the league through the first two games, and are 11th in EPA per dropback allowed. However, the Lions are capable of generating a pass rush, but they also get toasted when they blitz. They have blitzed their opponent on 39.0% of dropbacks this year. Geno Smith is 14-for-19 for 170 yards and a touchdown on plays when the opponent has blitzed him. Geno can get the ball out quickly, and this Lions pass defense can be shredded by just about anyone.
The Jets defense may not slow down the Lions offense, but they should be able to score enough to hang in this one. There are two angles worth having on your card for the Jets this weekend.
Best Bets: New York Jets Over 20.5 points, Geno Smith Over 224.5 passing yards
The Sports Gambling Podcast
For more analysis of every NFL game in the 2026-27 season, tune in to the Sports Gambling Podcast. Sean “Stackin’ The Money” Green and Ryan “Real Money” Kramer talk about each game on the entire slate. Listen for input on ATS and moneyline NFL picks every week!
