We’re gearing up for a great Saturday of College Football. SMU and Louisville face off against each other in Louisville. It’s an ACC game that matters, not because Miami is involved, but because it isn’t. 16th-ranked SMU walks into Louisville at 2-0 after a road win at Florida State and a 56-10 demo of UC Davis. 23rd-ranked Louisville is 1-1 after a 41-38 heartbreaker against Ole Miss and a 59-13 beatdown on Villanova. Last year in Dallas, SMU beat these same Cardinals 38-6. Now the rematch is in Louisville, the line is less than a field goal, and both coaches know the loser is already staring at a steep climb in the conference race. Let’s take a look at the SMU vs. Louisville preview, picks, and best bets.
SMU vs. Louisville Preview, Picks, And Best Bets
Location: L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium in Louisville, KY
Saturday: September 19th, 2026, on ESPN2 at 12:30 PM PT, 3:30 PM ET
Spread: SMU (+1.5) | Louisville (-1.5)
Total: Over 59.5 (-110) | Under 59.5 (-110)
Moneyline: SMU +100 | Louisville -120
Why SMU Could Cover (+1.5)
SMU could cover by doing what it already did last November and what it just did in Tallahassee. That’s letting Kevin Jennings cook and forcing Louisville to live in long-yardage situations. Jennings is 40-of-52 for 767 yards and eight touchdowns through two games. He threw for 430 yards at Florida State and had five first-half scores against UC Davis. The Mustands do not need a perfect rushing attack to stay on schedule. They have explosive plays and utilize those well.
The other side of the cover is the FSU tape. SMU turned it over four times and still won on the road, outgaining the Seminoles by more than 250 yards and stuffing them on third and fourth downs. Louisville wants to run the ball, and SMU has generated more real pressure than the Cardinals have. If the Mustangs get Kienholz into obvious passing downs, the 1.5-point cushion becomes a one-possession game that SMU has already shown it can win away from home.
Staying out of a turnover battle is the only real requirement. If they clean that up, this is a live moneyline, not just a cover.
Why Louisville Could Cover (-1.5)
For the Cardinals to cover, this has to feel like a Jeff Brohm game instead of a rerun of last November. Louisville already has the signature-loss scar from Ole Miss. The response at home against a ranked ACC opponent is the exact spot Brohm has used in th epast to keep this program relevant.
Lincoln Kienholz is the reason the number is why Louisville is favored. He has 639 passing yards, four passing touchdowns, zero interceptions, 111 rushing yards, and three rushing scores in two starts. Against Ole Miss, he went for 307 and a rushing touchdown in his debut, and then 332 and two more rushing touchdowns against Villanova. He is the leading rusher on the roster. If Louisville can get him on the edge and keep SMU’s front from teeing off, the Cardinals can win the possession battle and make this a dogfight on their home turf.
They need to protect the ball, lean on Kienholz’s legs when the pocket collapses, and hope SMU’s early-season sloppiness shows up on the road. One short field or one Jennings mistake and this 1.5 could become an easy cover.
Game Total: Over 59.5
As far as the SMU vs. Louisville picks go, this may be my favorite. Both of these offenses are built to create chunk plays, and neither defense has looked like a unit that can hold a team for four full quarters. Louisville has gone over in both games, including a 79-point night against Ole Miss. SMU just hung 56 on UC Davis and still put up 27 on the road at Florida State despite the turnovers.
Rhett Lashlee and Jeff Brohm are both former quarterbacks who would rather throw the next one than milk the clock. Jennings is averaging 14.8 yards per attempt, and Kienholz is at 12.8. That combination doesn’t scream a 24-21 type grind. Even if one side stalls for a quarter, the other is capable of a 14-point swing. I like the over all the way up to 61.5.
Kevin Jennings Over 274.5 Passing Yards
This number is another one I like in the SMU vs. Louisville picks. Jennings doesn’t need a perfect script to clear this number. He had 430 at FSU in a one-score game and 337 in a half against UC Davis. Louisville has allowed explosives through the air already this season, and SMU’s passing game is the one part of this matchup that does not need a running game to stay on schedule.
Jennings will get the looks he wants and can clear this total passing yards easily. He thrives on big chunk plays, and this is one of the cleaner numbers on the board.
Final Pick: SMU +1.5 | +100 Moneyline
SMU is the higher-ranked team, the unbeaten team, and the team that already handled Louisville by 32 points last year. The market is asking you to fade them because Louisville is at home and Kienholz looks like the real deal. It’s a fair argument, but not a convincing one.
Louisville’s offensive line has not been a finished product, and the Cardinals have one sack as a defense through two games. Jennings will have time to hunt and move the ball down the field. SMU already survived one sloppy road environment at Florida State. They can do it again. I like the +1.5, but the moneyline is live here.
