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College Football Pick Of The Day (September 18th): NCAA Week 3 Moneyline Dog
North Carolina (+140) @ Clemson
Saturday, September 19th, 9 AM Pacific, 12 PM Eastern
The College Football pick of the day I’m circling today is the North Carolina at Clemson game. This opened around six and is already down to three in an ACC opener. That kind of movement isn’t an accident. Both teams have tape now. North Carolina is 2-0, and Clemson is 1-1. Clemson is also 0-2 against the spread and got embarrased by LSU 51-10. They did beat Georgia Southern 22-7, but that’s Georgia Southern.
The separator in this game for me is the defense. The Tar Heels are allowing just 6.5 points per game and 268 yards. They have seven sacks in two contests and have given up just one touchdown. Clemson is starting true freshman Tait Reynolds in his first real test against a Bill Belichick front that just held TCU to 10 points in Dublin. Clemson is averaging 16 points and 246 yards so far this year. That’s not a home favorite we can trust.
Sure, History favors Clemson. They’ve won seven straight in the series and the last five in Death Valley by an average of 20. Last year they won 38-10 in Chapel Hill. However, this North Carolina team looks different than last year. The 2026 game tape is why I’m taking North Carolina on the Moneyline.
I expect big games out of Billy Edwards Jr. and Jelani Thurman. If they can keep this within a score going into the fourth quarter, they can take this game. This is a classic sell-high on a home favorite. Clemson is getting the venue and the series history bump. However, the line movement and the two-game sample tell me this comes down to the wire, and I’m riding with the dogs.
