It’s time to jump back into some FCS action! Two weeks in a row, my top bets have gone 4-1. We were 4-1 in Week 0, and then against last week. I was hoping for a sweep last week. However, we’ll take an 8-2 overall record. Does it make me slightly nervous about natural regression? Of course! I’m feeling confident headed into this week, but I struggled to decide which five games were my favorite. Let’s take a look at the top FCS Week 2 plays and which picks I’m putting in my best bets.
FCS Week 2 Preview And Best Bets
Lafayette (-10.5) @ Marist
Saturday, September 12th, 9:30 AM Pacific / 12:30 PM Eastern
This is another game where the favorite should win. The Lafayette Leopards have the better roster, the home crowd, and the correct infrastructure. However, 10.5 points still asks them to look better than they have so far this year.
Lafayette is 0-1 after an ugly trip to UConn. Marist is 1-1 and will try to shorten this game. That will be their whole script. Pioneer League teams cover numbers like this when the favorite can’t finish in the red zone. Lafayette has to prove it can score in bunches against a team that will run the ball often, tackle well, and try to keep a clock advantage.
This feels like a 24-17 or 27-20 type of game. Until the Leopards show they can separate from a team, taking the points feels like the value. I’m even sprinkling a little on Marist Moneyline.
FCS Week 2 Best Bet: Marist +10.5
Bucknell (-12.5) @ VMI
Saturday, September 12th, 10:30 AM Pacific / 1:30 PM Eastern
There’s no doubt that Bucknell should win this game. However, winning and covering a 12.5-point spread on the road are two different things. Can they travel and win by double-digits? This is the game I’m most unsure of, but I couldn’t help but take it.
The Bison are 0-2 after a loss at Richmond and a one-point home loss to Villanova. VMI is also 0=2 and already got run out of Lane Stadium at Virginia Tech. However, facing Virginia Tech and facing Bucknell are two different things. I think Bucknell has a slight roster gap, though. The Bison have more Patriot League depth and a cleaner path to 20+ points. What they have not shown is the ability to put a game away.
That’s the problem I have with this number. 12.5 points asks Bucknell to look like a finished product against another struggling FCS team. It also asks them to do that on the road in a game that could get sloppy. VMI is at home at Foster Stadium, and the Keydets don’t have to win this one. They just have to stay within two scores and force Bucknell to finish drives.
Games like this normally turn into a grind. If VMI gets one short field and keeps the Bison in second-and-long positions, the margin will shrink. I’m taking the points here, but not the Moneyline.
FCS Week 2 Best Bet: VMI (+12.5)
Lehigh (-10.5) @ William & Mary
Saturday, September 12th, 11:00 AM Pacific / 2:00 PM Eastern
Luke Yoder has seven touchdowns in two weeks. He ran for 130 yards and three scores at Holy Cross. Then he added 120 yards and four total touchdowns against Georgetown. Hayden Johnson just completed 16 of 19 for 271 yards. This offense is humming. Lehigh is averaging 40 points and 291.5 rushing yards per game so far. In fact, they fumbled three times against Georgetown and still won 45-14. That’s a team that can survive a couple of mistakes.
William & Mary is 2-0, though, and they’ve earned every bit of it. They scored 13 points in the final 53 seconds to beat Villanova. The game showed nerve. Last week showed another side, though. They were outgained by Delaware State by almost 200 yards. However, the Tribe won 22-15 because they forced six turnovers.
You can’t build a double-digit road cover on takeaways against a Lehigh offense that has already moved the ball all over Holy Cross and Georgetown. William & Mary may steal a possession through the air, but they haven’t shown they can keep on the field long enough to keep Yoder off of it. Lehigh will win this one in a convincing fashion.
FCS Week 2 Best Bet: Lehigh (-10.5)
Eastern Washington @ South Dakota (-16.5)
Saturday, September 12th, 11:00 AM Pacific / 2:00 PM Eastern
The next game on my FCS Week 2 picks is Eastern Washington against South Dakota in the DakotaDome. The Coyotes are the more complete team here. Eastern Washington can throw the ball down the field, though, which is why this spread isn’t bigger. They’ll still get their chunk plays. However, they will also face a front that can wreck second-and-long and make a road offense work from behind.
South Dakota’s path is the same one that works in this building every September. Run the ball, finish in the red zone, and make Eastern Washington beat them through the air for four quarters. They’ll control the clock, and if they stay on schedule, this game may not stay tight. 31-14 feels like a decent score prediction.
FCS Week 2 Best Bet: South Dakota (-16.5)
Furman @ Mercer (-16.5)
Saturday, September 12th, 3:00 PM Pacific / 6:00 PM Eastern
This is the tightest game I’m taking a look at. Furman is a decent enough team, and they could keep a Southern Conference game within one score. That’s what worries me about the 16.5-points. However, Mercer should still win the line of scrimmage, and that is usually enough in this league in Week 2. The Bears are ranked, at home, and they have a slightly better roster.
Furman could cover if it wins the turnover battle and gets a couple of explosive plays. However, on the road, that’s a best-case-scenario type of deal. Expect a one-score game that Mercer closes out with a big fourth quarter. Don’t be surprised if Mercer is only ahead by a touchdown going into the fourth before pulling away by 20+ points. Mercer is the better team, though, and you have to ride a better team at home. Last year they beat Furman 52-28.
FCS Week 2 Best Bet: Mercer (-16.5)
BONUS GAME: South Dakota State (-42.5) vs. New Haven
Saturday, September 12th, 4:00 PM Pacific / 7:00 PM Eastern
I know the number is big. It’s a scary 42.5. However, New Haven isn’t built to live with the Champion-pedigree Jackrabbits for 60 minutes. The only cover risk is the early hook. If SDU empties the bench in the third quarter, a late New Haven touchdown could shrink a 49-point lead to a 42-point final. That’s a tax we must pay on every giant FCS number.
However, the Jackrabbits have depth on this roster. South Dakota State should be up by 20+ points at half and still have enough left to keep the margin in the high 30’s. This is the most lopsided game of the week, and SDSU is just too good to fade. They hung 70 points on Stetson while New Haven is a second-year program.
FCS Week 2 Best Bet: South Dakota State (-42.5)
