Did you know that video poker progressives can actually be more profitable than standard machines? There’s an old saying that standard machines are for grinders and progressives are for hunters. While standard machines have a 99.54% return with perfect play, progressive machines can see that return go into +100% territory if the jackpot gets high enough. Let’s walk through the ins and outs of progressive video poker. This way, the next time you see a seat at a progressive machine open, you may be tempted to head for it and skip the standard grinders.
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Are Video Poker Progressives Worth Playing? The Math Behind Progressive Jackpots
How Does Progressive Video Poker Work?
With standard video poker, the payout for a Royal Flush is fixed. However, progressive video poker puts a small amount of each bet, typically 1% or 2%, into a pot. The jackpot grows as you and other players play, and only pays out if a specific hand, usually a royal flush, is hit.
Progressive video poker can pay out at a much higher return if the jackpot grows larger than the payout for a standard game. You may have to suffer through extended losing streaks. but it’s also possible to have a monster return if you’re able to catch a jackpot.
How Much Does a Progressive Jackpot Add to RTP?
A progressive jackpot can increase a video poker game’s theoretical return. However, the increase depends on how much larger the progressive payout is than the game’s normal payout for a royal flush.
The basic calculation is as follows:
Additional RTP = Royal Flush Probability × Additional Royal Payout
Let’s use the following scenario as an example:
- A normal royal-flush payout of 4,000 credits
- A progressive royal-flush payout of 8,000 credits
- A royal-flush probability of approximately 1 in 40,000 hands
This means that the progressive game has added 4,000 credits to the royal-flush payout. 4,000 divided by 40,000 means an additional 0.10 credit per wager or, roughly, a 0.10% increase, in percentage terms to the game’s theoretical RTP.
Keep The Pay Table In Mind
While progressive video poker has the larger jackpot, the overall pay tables are a bit worse than standard video poker. Hands like a full house or three-of-a-kind often get a bit of a haircut when it comes to the pay table. This means that your theoretical return, excluding the jackpot, is worse with progressive machines. However, a large enough jackpot can help overcome a short pay table.
The best strategy is to look for progressive games that have a better pay table or only play progressive games that have a growing progressive that has a high enough return to make it worth your while. Stay away from games that have a poor pay table and a mediocre jackpot.
What Is the Break-Even Jackpot?
Break-even in video poker means an RTP of 100%. Standard video poker with perfect play will never get to a 100% RTP. Progressive video poker games can theoretically reach a 100% RTP or higher depending on the jackpot.
Given the 1-in-40,000-hand odds of a Royal Flush and the 97.3% base RTP for a progressive video poker game, the jackpot needs to increase by enough to cover the 2.7% gap. This means that if a standard game pays 4,000 credits for a Royal Flush, a progressive jackpot would need to be high enough to offset the gap. In this scenario, 0.027 times 40,000 equals roughly 1,080. The jackpot would need to be 5,080 to achieve a 100% RTP in this scenario.
When Should You Play a Video Poker Progressive?
Playing a progressive video poker makes sense under the following scenarios:
Here are the biggest factors to consider.
1. The Progressive Has Reached Its Break-Even Point
The most important number to you should be the game’s break-even jackpot. The progressive amount at which the jackpot reaches approximately 100% theoretical return with an optimal play strategy.
If the progressive is below that number, the game still has a negative expected return. Once it reaches the break-even point, the mathematical disadvantage disappears. If it climbs above that point, the game can theoretically become positive expectation. This is what you need to look for when deciding on playing a progressive video poker game.
2. The Underlying Pay Table Is Strong
A progressive video poker game attached to a strong pay table is much more attractive than the same jackpot attached to a poor pay table. Look for progressive games that pay close to standard video poker pay tables are the games you should seek out.
3. The Progressive Is Well Above Break-Even
If a progressive is only slightly above its break-even point, the theoretical advantage may be small. A higher jackpot creates a larger mathematical edge if the game and strategy remain unchanged.
This is where progressive hunting can become particularly interesting for advantage players. Instead of playing a machine because it has a progressive, you can pick the game you want to play as it inches toward the level you need to be at to have a greater advantage. You may have to be patient and wait for the right game to come around, but it’s part of a successful strategy.
Remember, playing online video poker games is meant to be a fun diversion. If you find yourself stressing over poker, take a break, put on headphones, and listen to the latest episode of the Sports Gambling Podcast. Sean and Ryan have got you covered, even if the video poker machines seem to have turned on you.
