The TOUR Championship is here, and Round 1 at East Lake gives us a chance to attack the course profile we discussed in the full tournament preview.
Despite East Lake stretching to nearly 7,500 yards as a par 70, this is still a golf course where I want players operating from the fairway. The thick Bermuda rough makes life considerably more difficult on approach, and consistently finding the short grass creates far more opportunities to attack these greens.
That gives us two very different ways to attack Thursday: backing one of the best ball strikers in the field to start fast and fading a player whose accuracy issues could make scoring difficult.
TOUR Championship Round 1 Bets
Si Woo Kim First-Round Leader +2500
Si Woo Kim feels like this year’s Tommy Fleetwood.
He hasn’t been able to consistently turn the quality of his golf into wins, but the ball striking has been absolutely ridiculous.
If Scottie Scheffler didn’t exist, we would probably spend a lot more time discussing just how well Si Woo has hit the golf ball this season.
More importantly, his game makes a ton of sense for East Lake.
Kim combines elite ball striking with the ability to find fairways at a high rate. That should continually give him opportunities to attack from the short grass rather than trying to manufacture scoring chances from this thick Bermuda rough.
And when Si Woo gets going, he can make birdies in bunches.
Do I completely trust him to hold everything together for 72 holes against this field? Not necessarily. That’s exactly why I’m more interested in attacking the first-round leader market than taking him outright.
We don’t need four days of Si Woo.
We need one heater.
In a field of only 30 players, +2500 is enough for me to take the chance that Thursday is that day.
BET: Si Woo Kim First-Round Leader +2500
Akshay Bhatia Under 4.5 Birdies -168
We’re laying some juice with the second play, but this is directly tied to the course profile.
Akshay Bhatia’s driving accuracy has been abysmal.
That’s a major concern at East Lake.
There are golf courses where you can spray it off the tee, recover with elite iron play and still generate plenty of birdie opportunities. I’m not convinced this version of East Lake is one of them.
Finding fairways matters because of what happens on the next shot.
Playing approaches out of thick Bermuda rough makes controlling distance, spin and trajectory significantly more difficult. Miss enough fairways and suddenly you’re playing defensively into greens rather than consistently firing at pins.
That’s not the formula I want when the number requires five birdies to beat us.
Akshay obviously possesses plenty of scoring upside, and it wouldn’t be shocking to see the putter get hot. But we’re betting on the course eventually punishing those inaccurate tee shots and limiting the number of legitimate birdie opportunities he creates.
I’ll take the ugly price for what I think is a strong matchup between player weakness and course demands.
BET: Akshay Bhatia Under 4.5 Birdies -168
Round 1 Card
Si Woo Kim FRL +2500
Akshay Bhatia Under 4.5 Birdies -168
East Lake rewards positioning. Thursday, we’re backing the guy who consistently creates it — and fading the guy who hasn’t.
