For the second straight day, the Braves and the Mets gave us an easy cash with our NRFI play. Now, we have some NRFI bets for July 5.
Sunday has another full docket of games from noon until night. Come check out what we have cooked up for this slate of games.
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MLB NRFI and YRFI Picks – July 5
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros
First Pitch – 3:30 pm EST
Daikin Park – Houston, TX
Broadcast – Peacock
Tampa Bay is first to the plate in this one, and they’ve been an average team at the plate. They rank in the middle of the pack in all the major metrics we’d look for to indicate success here with the exception of home runs – which they rank 25th with less than one per game. As a result, we’re leaning on the pitching to get this one started right. Peter Lambert is the arm the Astros, and we, will rely on. He’s allowed two or less runs in five of his last six starts. More importantly, nine of the last ten runs that Lambert has allowed have been by a home run. With The Rays having less firepower, it should help him get through the first here.
Houston is another team that is hanging around the league average. They rank 16th in runs scored per game and have been hanging around that spot since the first month of the season. Once again, we’ll tail the pitcher with a hot hand. Griffin Jax has been outstanding in his last five starts. In those five trips to the bump, he’s kept three of the opponents scoreless. That led him to a 1.73 ERA in that stretch. That includes 26 strikeouts in 26.0 innings. He should be able to use that swing and miss stuff to get through the first here.
NRFI/YRFI Bet for July 5: No (-105)
Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Angels
First Pitch – 9:30 pm EST
Angel Stadium – Anaheim, CA
Broadcast – MLB TV
The Red Sox continue to be one of the easiest teams to tail for NRFI plays. The first reason is that their bats have been embarrassingly bad this season. They rank 26th in runs scored with just 4.02 per game and are even worse in the first inning. They rank 29th, only ahead of the Padres, in terms of first inning scoring. Ryan Johnson will be the one trying to keep that going. While his 7.40 ERA isn’t inspiring, he has allowed just one earned run over his last two starts (11.0 innings). He’s also fanned 11 in that span. Having settled in nicely, he should be able to use the Red Sox for even more momentum.
The second reason why we always tail Boston for NRFI plays is the strength of their pitching. Ranger Suarez was named to the All-Star Game on Saturday night and for good reason. He enters Sunday’s action with a 2.94 ERA and 92 strikeouts in 88.2 innings worked. The Angels are a just below average team hitting this year, but have been historically bad during their five-game losing streak. In that five-game stretch, they’ve put up just eight runs (1.60 per game). If they are going to break out of that trend, it isn’t going to be against Ranger Suarez.
NRFI/YRFI Bet for July 5: No (-125)
If you’d like even more info to help make your NRFI and YRFI picks for July 5, check out the MLB Gambling Podcast. They’re dropping episodes five days a week to make you the smartest guy/gal at the bar with their MLB picks today.
