In the lone Sunday game, the under was simply free money as they didn’t come close to the 2.5 goal projection. We’ll look to keep that momentum turning into Monday. We’re taking a look at each individual matchup and helping you with every way to play each match. We’ve got the World Cup Best Bets for June 29 – and we’ll have them every day.
The knockout round really gets started with three matches on Monday. Come check out what we have cooked up for today’s slate of action.
CHECK OUT THE SPORTS GAMBLING PODCAST’S DAILY BEST BETS
Daily World Cup Best Bets – June 29th
Brazil vs. Japan
Kickoff – 1:00 pm EST
NRG Stadium – Houston, Texas
Broadcast – FOX
Japan has performed well throughout this tournament. They enter the knockout stage undefeated with a pair of draws and a blowout win over Tunisia. While that shows me that they are a solid squad, I do think they’ve shown enough holes that you can’t really expect them to advance here. My primary concern is how much firepower Brazil has up front. They have a ton of scorers and, as they showed in the Scotland match, they will take advantage of every defensive miscue that you make. Japan showed that they occasionally make those mistakes. The immediate lapse following their goal against Sweden is proof of concept.
With all of that being said, I do like the chance of this game being close. Many books have reduced their options for normal spreads, opting for Asian spreads instead in the knockout rounds. Japan should keep it close long enough for a +1 spot to cash or at least push.
Best Bets for South Brazil/Japan: Japan +1 (-175) and Over 2.5 Goals (+105)
Germany vs. Paraguay
Kickoff – 4:30 pm EST
Gillette Stadium – Foxborough, Massachusetts
Broadcast – FOX
Paraguay really turned up the defense late in the group stage in order to make it here. After sneaking by Turkey, they packed the box and managed to get a 0-0 draw with Australia and moved on. The problem with that is that they’re going to need to go for it here. There is no way they’ll be able to play on their heels for 120 minutes as they hope for penalty kicks.
Florian Wirtz and Joshua Kimmich have been creating well for the finishers up front. Give them a passive team not really looking to counter much and they should be able to get an early one. Once they do, Paraguay should open up and allow for this one to get out of hand.
Best Bets for Germany/Paraguay: Germany -1.5 (+105) and Over 2.5 Goals (-145)
Netherlands vs. Morocco
Kickoff – 9:00 pm EST
Estadio BBVA – Guadalupe, Mexico
Broadcast – FOX
Morocco’s defense was sharp in the early parts of group play. They held Brazil to just one goal and then kept Scotland scoreless. In those two games, their expected goal total was just barely over the 2 that they scored. It was a different story when they needed to attack the goal differential in matchday three. Their offense got after it with Haiti, but as a result, they left themselves open for a pair of goals from a team that otherwise did not score all tournament.
That’s not good news against Netherlands, who have a talented attack led by Cody Gakpo and Brian Brobbey. They’ve been able to not just find an early goal, but pour it on heavily when they do. As a result, I like them to both take the win and to make it a high scoring contest.
Best Bets for Netherlands/Morocco: Netherlands -0.5 (+125) and Over 2.5 Goals (+125)
If you’d like even more info to help make your World Cup bets, check out the World Cup Gambling Podcast. They’re dropping episodes for the whole tournament to make you the smartest guy/gal at the bar with their World Cup picks today.
