Stephie Smalls and Jared Smith break down NFL Awards best bets for MVP, OPOY, DPOY, Coach of the Year and more 2026 futures.
NFL Awards Best Bets: Burrow, Puka, Garrett & More
The Stephie Smalls Show is back with a full NFL Awards futures betting preview, and this one gets into the good stuff early. Stephie Smalls is joined by Jared Smith from Fox Sports Radio and The Morning After podcast to break down the best early NFL Awards best bets before training camp narratives, injury news, and preseason overreactions start lighting the markets on fire like a sportsbook gender reveal.
This episode covers MVP, Offensive Player of the Year, Defensive Player of the Year, Coach of the Year, Offensive Rookie of the Year, Comeback Player of the Year, win totals, and a few “please do not make me watch this team every Sunday” futures angles.
Joe Burrow MVP Value
One of the biggest NFL Awards futures angles in the episode is Joe Burrow for MVP. Jared and Stephie discuss why Burrow’s price stands out compared to other elite quarterbacks like Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, and Matthew Stafford.
The MVP betting market is not exactly a democracy. It usually comes down to quarterbacks on teams that win a lot of games, put up big passing numbers, and show out in primetime. Burrow checks the talent box, the narrative box, and the “hasn’t won it yet” box. If the Bengals bounce back and the AFC North becomes one of the league’s strongest divisions, Burrow could be right in the middle of the MVP conversation.
Stephie also points to the natural connection between Burrow MVP and Ja’Marr Chase Offensive Player of the Year. If one of those bets is alive late in the season, the other may be standing right next to it in a designer jacket asking for attention.
Offensive Player of the Year Bets
The Offensive Player of the Year market brings plenty of wide receiver discussion. Puka Nacua gets a serious look as one of the top OPOY values, especially with the Rams offense still expected to be dangerous. Jared argues that wide receivers should be priced closer to running backs in this market, especially after recent winners have shown that both positions can realistically take home the award.
Ja’Marr Chase, Puka Nacua, George Pickens, Drake London, Jahmyr Gibbs, and AJ Brown all come up in the conversation. AJ Brown is especially interesting after his move to New England, where his Offensive Player of the Year odds could become a fascinating bet if Drake Maye takes a step forward.
That also opens the door for one of the funniest possible NFL media storylines: AJ Brown popping off and everyone immediately asking what that says about Jalen Hurts. The answer is probably “sports talk radio becomes a haunted house.”
Kellen Moore Coach of the Year?
Coach of the Year is one of Jared’s favorite NFL futures markets, and Kellen Moore becomes a major focus. The argument is simple: if the Saints win a weak NFC South, Moore is almost automatically in the Coach of the Year conversation.
Stephie and Jared discuss why betting Moore may be a better route than simply betting the Saints to win the division. If New Orleans starts fast and leads the NFC South through the first chunk of the season, the price on Moore could move quickly.
The Titans and Robert Saleh also come up, but Jared is less interested in backing a defensive-minded coach with a young quarterback and an uncertain offensive situation. That is where the conversation turns into a broader discussion about how important it is to connect awards futures to team success, division paths, and market movement.
Defensive Player of the Year Picks
Defensive Player of the Year is framed as a pass-rusher market. Jared and Stephie talk through Myles Garrett, Will Anderson, Aidan Hutchinson, Micah Parsons, Nik Bonitto, Brian Burns, and Abdul Carter.
Myles Garrett is the obvious name after the Rams trade discussion, but Will Anderson may be the sharper way to get a piece of the Houston Texans defense. Stephie likes Anderson’s pressure numbers, the Texans’ defensive ceiling, and the idea that Houston could be one of the more complete teams in the AFC South.
The key point: DPOY is often about sacks, names, and timing. Betting it early can work, but Jared also makes the case for waiting to see which pass rushers start hot before jumping into the market.
Rams Super Bowl Hype and Myles Garrett Trade Fallout
The episode starts with the Myles Garrett trade fallout and what it means for the Rams. Jared is very high on Los Angeles, calling the Rams one of the best rosters he has seen and a serious Super Bowl threat.
The Rams already had the offense, the coach, the quarterback, and the high-end pieces. Adding Garrett gives them another terrifying defensive weapon and makes life easier for everyone else on that front. Stephie and Jared also get into the Browns’ side of the deal, the value of draft picks, and why the Rams clearly do not build like a team trying to cuddle first-round picks at night.
Patriots Regression, Jets Pain, Cardinals Fade
The Patriots also get a long look as a possible regression team. Jared questions whether New England’s path last year was as impressive as the record suggested, and both he and Stephie discuss the schedule, the drama, and the possibility that the Patriots may not be a playoff team.
The Jets temperature check is exactly as cheerful as expected, which is to say someone should probably send soup. Jared leans under on the Jets win total, citing the lack of quarterback certainty despite some optimism around the draft and culture-building.
The Cardinals may be the strongest fade of the episode. Jared says Arizona could have the worst record in the league and likes the under on their win total. The Falcons also land in the fade bucket, with concerns about Michael Penix, the new regime, and whether Atlanta is being priced too generously.
Final NFL Futures Takeaways
This episode is a strong NFL Awards betting preview because it does not just list picks. Stephie and Jared talk through how the markets actually move. MVP is about quarterbacks, wins, and primetime moments. Coach of the Year is about surprise team success. Defensive Player of the Year is about sacks and pass-rush narratives. Offensive Player of the Year may be more open to receivers than the odds suggest.
Best bets discussed include Joe Burrow for MVP, Ja’Marr Chase and Puka Nacua for Offensive Player of the Year, Kellen Moore for Coach of the Year, Will Anderson and Myles Garrett for Defensive Player of the Year, and win total fades on the Cardinals, Falcons, and Jets.
NFL futures markets are already open. The trick is finding the prices that will look ridiculous later — preferably before everyone else finds them and ruins the fun like a group text with too many dads.
