The Elite Eight for the NCAA tournament is set. We’re only one step away from the Final Four and only two steps away from crowning a national champion. We’ve got four games this weekend before we head to Indianapolis. There aren’t a ton of games left, but we have to bet these, right? We’ve got three college basketball picks for this weekend’s action that you’ll want to lock up. Let’s get into it.
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College Basketball Preview, Picks, and Best Bets for March 28 & 29th
Matt Dewoskin ATS College Basketball Picks Record (Est 11/3/2025)
All Selections: 221-182-5
Perfect 3-0 Cards: 21-114
Purdue (2) at Arizona (1)
Date and Time: March 28th at 8:49 PM EST
Purdue enters this game with a 30-8 overall record and a 17-21 mark overall against the spread. Arizona comes into this matchup with a 35-2 overall record and a 22-15 overall mark ATS.
Purdue has covered two out of three games in the tournament this year. The Boilermakers beat Texas outright, but failed to cover as 8.5-point favorites. Arizona has also covered in two out of three games in the NCAA tournament. Their only miss was by the hook against Utah State. The Wildcats just beat Arkansas by 21 points as 8.5-point favorites.
The handicap here is simple. Arizona has multiple waves of athletic bigs and a pair of veteran guards. Purdue has experience, but few teams can match the Wildcats in terms of athleticism. Purdue allows opponents to hit 53.3% of their attempts from inside the arc. That’s 250th in the country. Arizona ranks 53rd in the country in shooting percentage on two-point shots, and they take the ninth most shots from the paint.
The Wildcats also have a clear advantage in rebounding and are one of the best teams in the nation at getting to the line. If the Purdue front court gets in foul trouble, this game could get out of hand. Arizona is just too athletic and aggressive on the defensive end for Purdue. Lock up the Wildcats to win and cover.
Best Bet: Arizona -6
Tennessee (6) at Michigan (1)
Date and Time: March 29th at 2:15 PM EST
Tennessee enters this game with a 25-11 overall record and a 17-19 mark ATS. Michigan comes into this matchup with a 34-3 overall record and a 17-20 mark ATS.
Tennessee has won and covered in all three games played in the NCAA tournament. They just won outright as a 3.5-point underdog against an undermanned Iowa State team. Michigan has covered each of its last two games in the NCAA tournament. Their only miss in this tournament was a missed covering as a 30.5-point favorite in the opening round.
This version of Tennessee is slightly better on the offensive end, but slightly worse on the defensive end than years past. However, the key to the Volunteers’ success in the tournament has been their rebounding. Tennessee is one of the best teams in the nation on the offensive glass, and the toughest team in the country to get a defensive board against. The Wolverines’ size and athleticism in the front court will put that to the test.
Michigan has the better shooting team and is a bit tougher on the inside. Tennessee can defend guards well, but they can give up points down low. The handicap comes down to Michigan having the better overall roster, and they will make life difficult on a Tennessee team that tries to do its damage on the inside. Lock up the Wolverines to win and cover against the Vols.
Best Bet: Michigan -7.5
UConn (2) at Duke (1)
Date and Time: 5:05 PM EST
UConn enters this game with a 32-5 overall record and a 15-22 mark overall ATS. Duke comes into this matchup with a 35-2 overall record and a 20-17 mark overall ATS.
UConn has won and covered against Michigan State and UCLA. The Huskies’ only miss was failing to cover as a 20.5-point favorite against Furman. Duke has only covered in one of their three games in the NCAA tournament. They just failed to cover against St. John’s as a 6.5-point favorite.
Do experience and coaching really matter in March? We’re about to find out. UConn has one of the most experienced rosters in the tournament, and they have an arguably better, if not equally annoying, head coach on their bench. Neither team is a great shooting team from beyond the arc or at the free-throw line. This will be decided by which team is able to win down low, and UConn has passed the eye test, and the metrics favor their bigs over Duke’s.
Duke has struggled to cover in the NCAA tournament, and they look ripe to be the next one-seed to get picked off. Let’s lock up UConn with the points and sprinkle the moneyline.
Best Bet: UConn +5
The College Basketball Experience
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