Half of the Elite Eight is set. The other half gets figured out tonight. Last night’s slate ranged from ‘fantastic’ to ‘how did this team get this far’. The slate for March 27th will likely have the same variance. Let’s just hope we’re on the right side of it. We’ve gone through today’s games, crunched the numbers, and found a trio of college basketball picks that you’ll want to have on your card before tip-off. Let’s get into it.
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College Basketball Preview, Picks, and Best Bets for March 27
Matt Dewoskin ATS College Basketball Picks Record (Est 11/3/2025)
All Selections: 219-181-5
Perfect 3-0 Cards: 21-113
St. John’s (5) vs Duke (1)
Start Time: 7:10 PM EST
St. John’s enters this matchup with a 30-6 overall record and a 20-16 mark against the spread. Duke comes into this game with a 34-2 overall record and a 20-16 mark ATS.
St. John’s wrecked Northern Iowa in the first round, but skated past Kansas in the second round. The Red Storm failed to cover against the Jayhawks as a 3.5-point favorite.
Duke struggled to get past Siena in the first round. The rumor is that the Blue Devils were losing at halftime. In the second round, Duke won and covered against TCU as a double-digit favorite.
Duke has looked rough in both games they’ve played in the tournament. The injury to Caleb Foster has caused the Boozer brothers to have to handle the ball a bit more, and they’ve been turnover-prone. As talented as they are, a great coach once said, “Sometimes a freshman plays like a freshman.”
St. John’s is easily the best team the Blue Devils have faced in the tournament, and there’s a chance that the Johnnies could clip Duke in this spot. The Red Storm has the experience not to shrink from the spot; they have athletes to hang with Duke that TCU lacked, and they’re solid on the defensive end. St. John’s also has a better coach at the head of the bench. Let’s lock up St. John’s to keep this one close, and don’t be afraid to sprinkle the moneyline.
Best Bet: St.John’s +6.5
Alabama (4) vs Michigan (1)
Start Time: 7:35 PM EST
Alabama enters this game with a 25-9 overall record and a 16-18 mark ATS. Michigan comes into this matchup with a 33-3 overall record and a 16-20 mark overall ATS.
Alabama won and covered against Hofstra and Texas Tech last weekend to move on. Michigan won, but didn’t cover against Howard in the first round. However, the Wolverines righted the ship by blowing out St. Louis as a double-digit favorite to get into the Sweet Sixteen. Michigan has only covered twice in its last 10 games played.
Alabama and Michigan have two of the best scoring offenses in the nation, and both teams like to play at pace. The game total in this one could fly over. When it comes to the defensive side of the ball, Michigan is one of the best teams in the nation. Few teams can match their size and versatility. However, Alabama doesn’t try to bang down low. The Crimson Tide prefers to shoot from beyond the arc, and that’s the one area that Michigan can be susceptible. The Wolverines are 30th in the nation in three-point shooting percentage allowed. Alabama is 58th in the nation in three-point shooting percentage. The Crimson Tide also takes and makes the most threes in the country.
This game is going to be all about how well Alabama shoots and how well Michigan adapts. The Wolverines could very well end up sending Yaxel out to the perimeter, and good luck getting a clear look at a three-pointer if they do. The most likely scenario is that Alabama shoots itself out of this game, and Michigan spends the game catching easy buckets in transition. Lock up the Wolverines to win and cover in a game that could get out of hand.
Best Bet: Michigan -9
Michigan State (3) vs UConn (2)
Start Time: 9:45 PM EST
Michigan State enters this game with a 27-7 overall record and a 19-15 mark overall ATS. UConn comes into this matchup with a 31-5 overall record and a 14-22 mark overall ATS.
Michigan State won and covered against North Dakota State and Louisville last weekend. UConn beat Furman and UCLA to get to the Sweet Sixteen, but failed to cover against Furman.
UConn was a favorite in every game this year except one. They’re 13-22 ATS as a favorite. Michigan State has been an underdog five times this year. They’re 4-1 ATS when catching points.
The offense/defense matchups here are interesting. UConn has an elite defense and a very good offense. Michigan State is behind UConn in most defensive metrics, but only slightly. The Spartans have a measurably better offense than the Huskies. This is going to come down to matchups, and that favors Michigan State. The Spartans have enough size down low to at least make it tough on UConn to get buckets in the paint, and Michigan State is known for elite guard play.
As far as metrics that do matter, Michigan State is one of the best rebounding teams in the nation and has an advantage at the free-throw line. This is a case of the wrong team favored, even if it is a short favorite. Lock up Michigan State with the 1.5 points or play it on the moneyline. Tom Izzo goes into the Elite Eight, while Dan Hurley goes home.
Best Bet: Michigan State +1.5
The College Basketball Experience
For more analysis of every college basketball game in the 2025-26 season, tune in to The College Basketball Experience. Colby Dant, Moneyline Mac, and Noah Bieniek talk about each game on the entire slate. Listen for input on ATS and moneyline college basketball picks every night!
