The second round of the NCAA and NIT tournaments has one more day before we have a set field for the next round. Half of the Sweet Sixteen is set. The other half will be determined today. While it matters to the players and fans, it also matters to the gamblers. We’ve gone through today’s slate, crunched the numbers, reviewed the lines, and found three college basketball plays you’ll want to lock up. Let’s get into it.
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College Basketball Preview, Picks, and Best Bets for March 21
Matt Dewoskin ATS College Basketball Picks Record (Est 11/3/2025)
All Selections: 213-178-5
Perfect 3-0 Cards: 20-112
Illinois State (4) at Wake Forest (1)
Start Time: 4:30 PM EST
This is a second-round game in the NIT tournament and will be played on campus in Winston-Salem, NC.
Illinois State enters this game with a 21-12 overall record and a 5-7 mark on the road. The Redbirds are 17-15 overall against the spread and 4-8 ATS on the road.
Wake Forest comes into this matchup with an 18-16 overall record and a 13-6 mark at home. The Demon Deacons are 15-19 overall ATS and 8-11 ATS at home.
Illinois State is 6-4 in its last 10 games. The Redbirds have a 5-5 mark ATS over that stretch. Illinois State beat Kent State in Normal, IL. The Redbirds covered as a 3.5-point favorite.
Wake Forest has six wins in its last 10 games played. The Demon Deacons are 6-4 ATS over that stretch. Wake Forest beat Navy at home to advance in the NIT, but failed to cover as a 10.5-point favorite.
The Illinois State defense looked great against Kent State. The Golden Flashes had one of the best offenses in the country this year, and they couldn’t get open looks against Illinois State. The Redbirds will give effort on the defensive end, and they are really tough on the inside. Illinois State comes into this game with the better shooting team and should get looks against a Wake Forest defense that has lapses, especially on the inside. The Redbirds have played tough on the defensive boards all year and have an advantage on the boards. Illinois State has a couple of beefy guys down low and experienced guards. They won’t be as outclassed by a school from a power conference in a down year.
Let’s ride with the Redbirds to get up in what could be a sleepy spot for a Wake Forest team that has sleepwalked at times this year. Lock up the Redbirds to stay within 7.5 points.
Best Bet: Illinois State +7.5
UCLA (7) vs UConn (2)
Start Time: 8:45 PM EST
This is a second-round game in the NCAA tournament and will be played at a neutral site in Philadelphia, PA.
UCLA comes into this game with a 24-11 overall record and a 17-18 mark ATS. UConn enters this matchup with a 30-5 overall record and a 13-22 mark ATS.
UCLA got past UCF in the first round, but failed to cover as a 5.5-point favorite. UConn beat Furman in the first round, but also failed to cover as a 20.6-point favorite.
The difference in this game will be how these teams play in the paint. UConn is nasty down low. The Huskies are 26th in the nation in shooting percentage on two-point shots and 13th in the nation in opponent shooting percentage on two-point shots this year. UCLA is 177th on offense and 202nd on defense in shooting percentage on two-pointers. UConn is going to eat UCLA’s lunch down low.
UCLA is in the top-25 in the nation in three-point shooting, but UConn is 21st in the nation in opponent three-point shooting percentage. The Huskies can defend the perimeter well enough that the Bruins won’t kill them from the outside. UConn also has a clear advantage on the boards and should be able to take advantage of second chances.
This line is a little short and a little stinky, but UConn should roll here. Lock up the Huskies to win and cover as they advance to the Sweet Sixteen.
Best Bet: UConn -4.5
Texas Tech at Alabama
Start Time: 9:45 PM EST
This is a second-round game in the NCAA tournament and will be played at a neutral site in Tampa, FL.
Texas Tech comes into this matchup with a 21-10 overall record and an 18-15 mark ATS. Alabama enters this game with a 24-9 overall record and a 15-18 mark ATS.
Texas Tech is 6-4 in its last 10 games, and has a 6-4 mark ATS over that stretch. Alabama is 8-2 in its last 10 games, but only 5-5 ATS over that stretch. The Crimson Tide was only a favorite once in their last 10 games. They won outright against Tennessee in that game.
Both teams destroyed a solid mid-major program in the first round to get here. Texas Tech won and covered as a favorite over Akron, while Alabama won and covered as a favorite over Hofstra. Alabama will be without guard Aden Holloway for this game, while star forward JT Toppin is out for the year with a knee injury for the Red Raiders.
Alabama comes into this game with the best scoring offense in the country and a defense that’s better than most would think. The Crimson Tide will allow its opponents to score. However, they can also take the ball away, rebound, and stay in front of guys when they need to.
Texas Tech was 0-for-March before they beat Akron two days ago. They lost at home to TCU, lost at BYU, and got bounced from the Big 12 tournament by Iowa State. The Red Raiders looked great against Akron, but they have to play a fellow power program in the second round. Texas Tech killed Akron on the boards and shot the lights out from the field. Alabama can go shot-for-shot with everyone, and they will be more competitive on the boards than Akron was.
The Texas Tech offense is also due for a bit of regression. They outshot their season average from the field by 17% and 16% from three-point range. The buckets won’t come as easily against Alabama. The game script for this one is that Alabama’s pace messes with pace and shooting messes with Texas Tech, and they find the rim a bit more often than they did on Friday.
Alabama is catching 1.5 points here. Let’s lock up the Crimson Tide with the 1.5 points, but you can play this straight on the moneyline.
Best Bet: Alabama +1.5
The College Basketball Experience
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