The first round has come and gone, and we are almost done with the Second Round. We’ve seen upsets, overtime thrillers and complete blowouts. But there is so much madness yet to come. Let’s take a look at Sunday’s Second Round games and give out my March Madness Picks for Sunday, March 22nd.
No. 7 Miami vs No. 2 Purdue 12:10
Huge win for Miami in round 1 of the NCAA Tournament and to be honest it wasn’t even close. Jai Lucas needs more credit for what he took on at the University Miami. The Hurricanes are clearly moving in the right direction. But I do think this is where their season ends. Purdue is the deeper team and should have the best player on the floor with Braden Smith. Smith is one of the best floor generals we have seen in the college game in the last decade, and he’s going to generate good looks against this defense. I do expect Purdue to tighten things up on the defensive end of the court. Purdue is 26-14 against the spread in NCAA Tournament games under Matt Painter.
Pick: Purdue -7.5
No. 7 Kentucky vs No. 2 Iowa State 2:35
I think it’s safe to say Kentucky got luck with their 89-82 overtime win over Santa Clara. One team’s heartbreak is another team’s pathway forward. Iowa State on the other hand, didn’t have to spend nearly as much energy in round one. The key to this game is going to be the turnover battle. The Wildcats lost the turnover battle 11-7 to Santa Clara in the first round. The Cyclones were a solid team in a lot of metrics, but one area where they shine is TO% on defense, forcing opponents to give up the ball on more than 22% of their possessions. Kentucky also lost the battle on the offensive glass. Iowa State rebounding percentages on both ends of the floor were higher than Kentucky’s during the regular season.
Pick: Iowa State -4.5
No. 5 St. John’s vs No. 4 Kansas 5:15
It was good to see Darry Peterson play some healthy minutes against Cal Baptist. He scored 28 points in 37 minutes. Peterson has actually played at least 37 minutes in two of the last three games. Will his cramps appear here vs St. John’s? I like the Redstorm but they do struggle shooting the ball. St. John’s only shoots 33.3% from deep, and the team is also near the bottom of college basketball in 3-Point Rate (34.2%). But they are a great defensive team and rebound the ball extremely well. I just believe St. John’s are the more reliable team especially as favorites. Under Pitino, the Red Storm are 72-10 straight-up and 48-32-2 against the spread as favorites. They’re also 12-6 SU and 14-4 ATS in tournament games.
Pick: St. John’s -3.5
No. 6 Tennessee vs No. 3 Virginia 6:10
Virginia had a tough battle in the opening round against Wright State barely winning 82-73. Tennessee on the other hand, dominated America’s sweetheart Miami (Ohio) 78-56. Both of these teams can defend well. Heading into the NCAA Tournament, these two teams were top 20 groups when looking at Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (95.0 for TEN and 96.9 for UVA). But the difference in this game for me is the 3-point shooting. The edge goes to the Cavaliers and to be honest I don’t know where Tennessee is going to make Virginia uncomfortable. I also think Thijs De Ridder will be the best player on the floor. He can score and is a huge mismatch for the Volunteers.
Pick: Virginia ML -105
No. 9 Iowa vs No. 1 Florida 7:10
I mean what a performance by the Gators in Round 1 of the NCAA Tournament. Iowa is a good team and is definitely a step up in competition than Prairie View. But I don’t believe Iowa has the size to keep guys like Thomas Haugh and Alex Condon from around the basket. The biggest player for Iowa is Alvaro Folgueiras who is only 6 ’10. The size for Iowa is also going to be a problem on the glass. The Gators are a top 10 team when it comes to both Offensive Rebound Rate (43.2%) and Defensive Rebound Rate (24.8%). You need size to beat Florida and Iowa just doesn’t have it.
Pick: Florida -10.5
No. 9 Utah State vs No. 1 Arizona 7:50
I might be all in on the Wildcats this year. There’s something about this team that just feels different. They’re great on both sides of the court and Tommy Lloyd is doing a great job getting the boys ready. Just look at Arizona’s resume, wins over Florida, UCLA, UConn, Alabama, Kansas, Houston (twice), and Iowa State (twice). Meanwhile, Utah State had to battle against Villanova to get to the round of 32. I will say this about the Aggies, they have a really good backcourt, with MJ Collins Jr and Mason Falslev. All in all, I think Arizona is too good on both sides of the court and will be too much for Utah State.
Pick: Arizona -11.5
No. 7 UCLA vs No. 2 UConn 8:45
Even though I’m high on UConn, I didn’t think they looked great in their win vs Furman. I am surprised UConn is laying a small number against UCLA. The Huskies are significantly the better defensive team. Plus, UCLA’s star guard, Donovan Dent is also not 100%. He got hurt in the Big Ten Tournament and only shot 4 for 17 from the floor and 0 for 3 from 3 against UCF in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. The Huskies are the more talented team and the healthier team coming into this matchup. We’ll also see some positive regression from UConn.
Pick: UConn -4.5
No. 5 Texas Tech vs No. 4 Alabama 9:45
It looked like Alabama didn’t need Aden Holloway in the opening round in their 90-70 win over Hofstra. But Texas Tech is a much different opponent than Hofstra. I think the Red Raiders deserve some flowers for a 20-point win over a good Akron team. I think this game is going to be back and forth with a fast pace of intensity. If you don’t like a side, I think the over is worth a look. The number is high, but Alabama is going to take a ton of threes. Meanwhile, Texas Tech was 13th in 3PR (51.2%) without Toppin before the tournament.
Pick: Texas Tech ML & Over 164.5
