The NCAA and NIT tournaments roll into their second round. We’re a few days closer to the end of the college hoops season, but there’s still basketball left to be played. The first round in both tournaments was fantastic and profitable. Let’s hope round two is just as fun to watch and cash in some tickets. We’ve gone through today’s slate, crunched the numbers, and found three college basketball picks that you’ll want to lock up. Let’s get into it.
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College Basketball Preview, Picks, and Best Bets for March 21
Matt Dewoskin ATS College Basketball Picks Record (Est 11/3/2025)
All Selections: 212-176-5
Perfect 3-0 Cards: 20-111
Louisville (6) at Michigan State (3)
Start Time: 1:45 PM EST
This is a second-round game in the NCAA tournament and will be played at a neutral site in Buffalo, NY.
Louisville enters this game with a 24-10 overall record and a 16-18 mark against the spread. Michigan State comes into this matchup with a 26-7 overall record and an 18-15 mark ATS.
Louisville won its first-round matchup in the NCAA tournament against South Florida, but failed to cover as a 4.5-point favorite. The Cardinals are 6-4 in their last 10 games played and 4-6 ATS over that stretch. Louisville will likely still be without point guard Mikel Brown.
Michigan State won its first-round tournament game against North Dakota State and covered as a 16.5-point favorite. The Spartans are 7-3 in their last 10 games played and 6-4 ATS over that stretch.
The line in this game feels a little short, but we’re diving in. Michigan State has the offensive firepower to hang with Louisville, and they’re a much better defensive team. The Spartans are tough on the inside and capable of defending the perimeter. Michigan State has an advantage on the boards and has a clear advantage in coaching. Spartans coach Tom Izzo has been to multiple Final Fours and has a championship ring. This is Pat Kelsey’s first time out of the first round.
Louisville has talent, but has looked soft at times this year. Michigan State has been through the grind of a Big Ten schedule and looked awesome in a dominant win in the first round. The Spartans look primed for a deep run in March, and Louisville almost blew a huge lead against South Florida. Let’s lock up Michigan State to win and cover. Tom Izzo moves on to the Sweet Sixteen, while Pat Kelsey heads back to Louisville.
Best Bet: Michigan State -4.5
TCU (9) at Duke (1)
Start Time: 5:15 PM EST
This is a second-round game in the NCAA tournament and will be played at a neutral site in Greenville, SC.
TCU comes into this game with a 23-11 overall record and a 20-14 mark ATS. Duke enters this matchup with a 33-2 overall record and a 19-16 mark ATS.
Duke won its first-round matchup with Siena, but failed to cover a 28.5-point spread. Siena gave the Blue Devils all they could handle and almost bounced Duke early. Duke is 10-0 in its last 10 games, but only 6-4 ATS over that stretch. Caleb Foster is out for this game, but the Blue Devils may have big man Patrick Ngongba back.
TCU won its first-round matchup outright as a 2.5-point underdog to Ohio State. The Horned Frogs are 8-2 in their last 10 games and 8-2 ATS over that stretch.
TCU has been in a spot like this multiple times this year. The Horned Frogs stayed within two possessions of Michigan, and did the same against Kansas twice. They beat Duke and Wisconsin. The only heavyweight that really ate their lunch was Arizona, and that was a 13-point loss. TCU has some weird losses, but they tend to show up against the big boys.
The Horned Frogs have muscle in the front court and experienced guards in the back court. They just won a slugfest against an Ohio State team that was arguably more talented. Now? They draw a Duke squad with more talent and will likely drag the Blue Devils into a slugfest. Duke excels on the inside but isn’t a great shooting team from the range or the free-throw line. TCU can also defend in the back court and has fouls to throw at the Duke bigs. Duke doesn’t really play at pace, but TCU is capable of getting really grimy against opponents. They’ll need to if they want to stay competitive here.
TCU won’t be on anyone’s Sweet Sixteen list, but they’ve proven that they can hang with heavyweights. Duke may have gotten a wake-up call against Siena, but that doesn’t mean they’re going to outclass the Horned Frogs from tip-off. Look for the Horned Frogs to drag this game in the mud, make Duke pay for any layup attempt, make their shots, and limit possessions. Lock up TCU to cover the 12.5 points.
Best Bet: TCU +12.5
Dayton (2) at UNC-Wilmington
Start Time: 7:00 PM EST
This is a second-round game in the NIT tournament and will be played on campus in Wilmington, NC.
Dayton enters this game with a 24-11 overall record and a 7-5 mark on the road. The Flyers are 16-19 overall ATS and 5-7 ATS on the road.
UNC-Wilmington comes into this matchup with a 27-6 overall record and a 15-3 mark at home. The Seahawks are 16-15 overall ATS and 8-8 ATS at home.
Dayton won its first round game at Bradley and covered as a 2.5-point favorite. The Flyers are 8-2 in their last 10 games, and 6-4 ATS over that stretch.
UNC-Wilmington won its first-round game against Yale as a 4.5-point underdog. The Seahawks are 8-2 in their last 10 games, and 8-2 ATS over that stretch.
Both of these teams have solid offenses and excel on the defensive end. UNC-Wilmington had one of the best defenses in the CAA, while Dayton was one of the better defensive teams in the A-10 conference. Dayton gets a tall task in having to win a second straight on-campus road game. The Seahawks have been tough to beat in the Trask Coliseum this year.
The rebounding metrics love UNC-Wilmington, but the majority of their schedule was against CAA teams. The A-10 is a much better conference than the CAA, but they should have an advantage on the boards. The Seahawks also have the 88th-best three-point percentage in the nation. Dayton struggles to defend the perimeter at times, and the Seahawks get to play on their floor. This will be a tight game, but the Seahawks are live to win this outright. Lock up UNC-Wilmington and the 2.5 points to cover at home.
Best Bet: UNC-Wilmington +2.5
The College Basketball Experience
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