The 2026 NCAA Tournament brackets have dropped, and we’re digging into the nitty-gritty so that you don’t have to. We’re breaking down not just our favorite plays early on in the South Region, but also our picks to cut down the nets in Houston, Texas. Feel like you got a good read on this quarter of the bracket? Don’t fill it out without reading this first!
And be sure to check out all of our other college basketball picks in each of the other regions.
2026 NCAA Tournament South Region Predictions: March Madness Upsets, Picks, and Bracket
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MIDWEST REGION PREVIEW
Best Bets: #6 North Carolina (-2.5), #7 Saint Mary’s (-2.5)
For North Carolina, the line for them to cover is likely only so close due to VCU’s dominant run through the A10 tournament. However, I’m not putting too much stock in those victories, particularly when you look at who they were facing. The A10 doesn’t have a single team inside the top 40 of the KenPom ratings. VCU’s defense has looked spotty all season, and they had the benefit of facing zero teams inside the top 140 of the offensive rankings. Now they’ll travel to South Carolina for a pseudo-road game against a UNC team that is in the top half of the bracket in terms of offense. I can’t imagine VCU will be able to keep pace with the scoring of Seth Trimble and gang – even if North Carolina hasn’t had the results they’ve wanted lately.
Saint Mary’s opens their South Region campaign against Texas A&M, which is another team I’m not sold on. Their non-conference schedule was one of the very worst in the country this year, and they essentially made the tournament by playing a touch over .500 in the SEC. They closed 4-7 in their last 11 games and really struggled to score down the stretch. Saint Mary’s is a tough team to run into if you have had trouble scoring. Led by the perimeter defense of Joshua Dent and the interior defense of Andrew McKeever, they form one of the most surprisingly good defenses in the league. I can’t see Texas A&M putting up enough points in this one to come anywhere near the spread.
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West Region Favorite: #2 Houston
While Florida got the top seed in the region, it’s Houston who should be everyone’s favorite to cut down the nets. Florida fell in the SEC semifinals to the same team they might be scheduled to meet in the Sweet 16 – Vanderbilt. Some of this could be attributed to Florida’s near-complete lack of a threat beyond the arc. Despite being down in that semifinal game, they only attempted 17 three-pointers. Perhaps that’s because they had only made five. If they face a team that can pack the paint or get out early, they’ll have a brutal time trying to shoot back into it.
The complete opposite of that coin is why I like Houston to take this region. They have elite inside defense and toughness. They rank in the top five of defense overall, and are dominant on the rebounding battle. Led by Chris Cenac Jr. inside and constant pressure from guards on the outside, they are the type of team that can take you into the deep end and drown you. That, combined with a somewhat easy portion of the bracket, should set them up for success here.
Dark Horse: #5 Vanderbilt
If there is a team to keep an eye on in this bracket, it’s the aforementioned Vanderbilt. Not only did they beat Florida in their conference tournament, but they also have the type of offense that you simply don’t want to run into in March. Their offense ranks better than two of the #1 seeds in this year’s tournament, largely thanks to their three-point shooting. Tyler Nickel was near the top of the NCAA in makes per game and kept them in the conference championship right up to the end.
While the defense has shown some signs of fatigue late in the season, the top half of this bracket lacks really dominant offenses. While a fate with Houston or Illinois in the Elite 8 might poke at that issue, they are a team that can win in a firefight.
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First Round Upset: #8 Clemson (+120) over #9 Iowa
Clemson is a team that played some of their best basketball of the year in the ACC tournament. They get production from all ten guys in the rotation. That was even more evident down the stretch as they got boosts off the bench from guys like Nick Davidson. That depth really helped them deal with hot and cold streaks from some of their starters as they upset UNC and pushed Duke in the second half.
Iowa, meanwhile, was on a skid to end the year. They are, undoubtedly, playing the worst basketball of the year – finishing 3-7 over their last 10. That ugly streak inlcuded a loss to Penn St., who finished 3-17 in conference play this year, in a game they led with a minute to go.
South Region Bracket
If you’d like even more college basketball picks for the South Region, be sure to check out the College Experience Podcast. The guys are dropping plenty of episodes to make you the smartest guy/gal at the bar.
