The bracket for 2026 March Madness is here, and you know that the team at SGPN is going to have NCAA tournament picks that you’ll want to lock up. The Arizona Wildcats earned the top speed in the West Region, but they’ll have to go through teams like Purdue, Gonzaga, Arkansas, and the Long Island Sharks. Will the Wildcats run the West, or is there another team that will earn a trip to Houston? Let’s go through the best bets, favorite, a dark horse, and upset plays to have in the West Region of your bracket.
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2026 NCAA Tournament West Region Predictions: March Madness Upsets, Picks and Bracket
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Best Bets for the 1st Round
Utah State vs. Villanova
Date: March 20th
Utah State comes into this game favored as a nine-seed, and rightfully so. Villanova had a solid regular season, but injuries have caught up to the Wildcats. They’ll be without starting forward Matt Hodge, and their front court was already stretched. Utah State can defend, shoot, and has a clear advantage on the boards. This is one case where the books have the right side favored. Utah State should roll against a short-handed Villanova squad. Lock up Utah State to win and cover against the Wildcats.
Best Bet: Utah State -2.5
Missouri vs. Miami
Date: March 20th
Missouri draws Miami in the seven-seed/10-seed matchup in the first round. These two teams are awfully similar, but Miami appears to be the better version. Both teams have muscle and scoring on the inside and don’t really shoot or defend the perimeter very well. This game will feel more like a fight than a basketball game, but Miami has a team of guys that have been around the block a couple of times, just not together.
The Miami backcourt of Tre Donaldson and Tru Washington matches up well with Missouri. The Hurricanes’ back court can shoot a bit more and defend the outside a bit more, but neither team really excels outside the paint. On the inside, Miami has the grit and experience to bang with Missouri. The rebounding and defensive metrics also give Miami a slight edge down low. The Tigers are also a bit more turnover-prone than the Hurricanes. The metrics don’t give a clear favorite, but there are enough little edges to make Miami the clear favorite in this matchup.
This will likely be a two-possession game, but Miami is better from the free-throw line, and that will likely make the difference on the scoreboard. Lock up Miami to win and cover as a 2.5-point favorite.
Best Bet: Miami -2.5
West Region Favorite
West Region Favorite: Arizona
Arizona is the one-seed and clear favorite to win the West Region. The Wildcats haven’t made it past the Sweet Sixteen since 2014-2015, but this squad is absolutely loaded. First, the Wildcats won the Big 12 regular season AND conference tournament this year. That’s no small feat. This year’s Big 12 featured eight NCAA tournament bids, with more than half as a four seed or better.
Arizona comes into this tournament led by senior guard Jaden Bradley. Bradley left the Big 12 championship game with a wrist injury, but was able to return and appears to have avoided a severe injury. Bradley was the Big 12 Player of the Year and the Big 12 conference tournament MVP.
Bradly is joined by freshman sensation Brandon Burries. Burries lead the Wildcats in scoring and is likely a lottery pick in the upcoming NBA draft. The Wildcats also have waves of big men they can send at opponents, and additional leadership and shooting in the backcourt. The Wildcats are deep, talented, and they’ve rolled through one of the toughest conferences in the country. They’re favorites for a reason and will be a challenge for anyone to advance against.
Arizona will make it to the second weekend without a real challenge. However, they’ll have to shake off a history of postseason failure and get through a West Region that could get tough in a hurry. Arkansas is a potential matchup in the Sweet Sixteen, and they have potential matchups against Purdue and Gonzaga in the Elite Eight. Arizona will need to keep Bradley healthy and continue to play at a high level. Any letdown in the later rounds, and they’ll likely be flying back to Tucson. However, they’re the favorite for a reason, and they should be the pick to make it out of the West Region
West Region Dark Horse
Dark Horse: Gonzaga
It’s hard to have Gonzaga as a dark horse in any bracket, but when the one-seed is Arizona and the two-seed is Purdue, everyone else is a dark horse in this bracket. Gonzaga brings a veteran squad into March. Their offense is built around veteran forwards Graham Ike and Braden Huff. Huff has been out with a knee injury, but he suffered his injury in mid-January, and he was given a 4-to-8 week timetable. He’s past the eight-week mark. It’s expected that he’ll be doubtful for the opening round game against Kennesaw State, but may return soon. The most recent reports have him jogging and shooting.
Their guards aren’t meant to serve as facilitators, but they have several shooters who can make teams pay if opponents focus on the paint. Braeden Smith and Mario Saint Supery function as primary ball handlers. Both are solid distributors, but can create their own shot and shoot from range as needed.
Gonzaga has been written off because they’ve struggled in a few big spots this year. However, they’re still Gonzaga, and it’s clear that they wanted to make it to March with as few injury concerns as possible, and their depth has allowed the Bulldogs to play it slow with Huff’s return.
Gonzaga has a first-round test against a chippy Kennesaw State team, but the Bulldogs’ size and shooting should get them out of the first round. The Bulldogs may get BYU in the second round, and that could be a tricky matchup. However, the Cougars have a few injuries of their own and haven’t been the same team without senior guard Richie Saunders.
If healthy, Gonzaga could be one of the few teams in the bracket that can match up against Purdue and Arizona. If the bracket holds, Gonzaga’s vets would likely be a short underdog against Purdue, but that’s not an unwinnable game for the Bulldogs.
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West Region First Round Upset
High Point over Wisconsin
High Point was a tournament darling last year. The Panthers dominated the Big South last year. However, they lost to a very talented Purdue team in their first NCAA tournament appearance. High Point didn’t rebuild for 2025-26; they reloaded. The Panthers is lead by a pair of seniors. Senior guard Rob Martin runs the backcourt. A SEMO transfer, Martin can score and distribute, but he’s excelled on defense and rarely hands the ball back. Senior wing Terry Anderson is the Panthers’ leading scorer. He can shoot from distance and play on the inside. Senior forward Cam’ron Fletcher transferred from Xavier and adds muscle to the post. Fletcher leads the Panthers in rebounding and will occasionally shoot from distance.
The Panthers ended the 2025-26 season with a first-round loss against a veteran Purdue squad. This year? They draw a veteran Wisconsin side. Wisconsin has wins over Michigan and Purdue, and two wins over Illinois.
However, the Badgers also have losses to TCU, Villanova, and USC this year. Wisconsin isn’t unbeatable, especially away from Madison. The Badgers may also be without forward Nolan Winter for the opening weekend of the NCAA tournament. Winter is one of the Badgers’ key big men, and they missed him on the boards this week. Seven-foot big men may grow on trees in the Big Ten, but they’re hard to replace in March. If Winter can’t go or is limited, the size advantage for Wisconsin gets a little smaller.
High Point has an explosive offense, and they lead the nation in steals per game. A handsy High Point defense could do enough against Wisconsin, and a hot shooting night isn’t out of the question. All High Point would need is a rough shooting night and a couple of defensive lapses to clip a five-seed.
At times this year, Wisconsin has played to its competition, and it would be extremely ‘March’ for a team with a win over Michigan to lose in the first round of the NCAA tournament. High Point is an older group, has guys who have been here before, and have the skills to clip a team in a single-game elimination tournament. Let’s lock up High Point and the double-digit points, but sprinkle the +400 money line.
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