NASCAR heads to Sin City this weekend for the fifth race weekend of the 2026 season. It’ll be the first true 1.5-mile track of the year after EchoPark Speedway (Atlanta) falls into the “drafting track” category. It’s the second week in a row where the drivers get their first look at a track that will appear down the stretch in NASCAR’s revived “Chase” format. Let’s dive in and take a look at this week’s NASCAR picks, odds, and best bets for the Pennzoil 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.
Ryan Blaney put an end to Tyler Reddick’s win streak last week by picking up the victory at Phoenix Raceway. It was Blaney’s first of the season and 18th of his NASCAR Cup Series career. Reddick still holds the lead in the point standings, and Blaney has moved into second place and trails Reddick by 60 points. Alex Bowman will once again miss this week as he faces vertigo issues. O’Reilly Series champion Justin Allgaier will fill in for him this week.
Odds to Win Pennzoil 400
Kyle Larson +450
Denny Hamlin +550
Christopher Bell +650
William Byron +900
Chase Briscoe +900
Tyler Reddick +900
Ryan Blaney +1100
Chase Elliott +1200
Joey Logano +1400
Ross Chastain +1400
Bubba Wallace +2000
Josh Berry +2500
Chris Buescher +3000
Ty Gibbs +3000
Ryan Preece +3000
Carson Hocevar +4000
Brad Keselowski +6000
Connor Zilisch +6000
Kyle Busch +6000
Austin Cindric +6000
Daniel Suarez +6000
Erik Jones +12500
AJ Allmendinger +12500
Michael McDowell +20000
John Hunter Nemechek +20000
Austin Dillon +25000
Shane Van Gisbergen +25000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr +25000
Noah Gragson +35000
Todd Gilliland +35000
Zane Smith +350000
Ty Dillon +50000
Cole Custer +100000
Riley Herbst +100000
Cody Ware +100000
NASCAR Picks, Odds, and Best Bets: Pennzoil 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway
Ross Chastain Over Joey Logano (+110)
I’m all aboard the watermelon train this week. Ross Chastain made the “car lift” bets section of this week’s NASCAR Gambling Podcast. Joey Logano seems to be getting a lot of respect in the matchup market this weekend and I’m not sold. Yes, Josh Berry won here in a weird race last spring and Penske showed some good 1.5-mile track speed last year, but Logano and a hard to trust when it comes to betting.
He’s been good here in crunch time in the playoffs the last few years, but less so in the spring race with finishes of 15th, ninth, and 36th in the last three spring races. Ninth is certainly respectable, but Chastain has been light out at Las Vegas. He’s four for four beating Logano in the NextGen era here in the spring race. Chastain is also consistent. 23rd in the fall here, but outside of that he’s only got one finish worse than seventh in the entire NextGen era. Added bonus, he’s at plus money, give me the consistent watermelon farmer over the three time champ.
Daniel Suarez Top 10 Finish (+300)
Daniel Suarez top 10 was the first bet I wanted to see what the price was this weekend. Suarez immediately jumped off the board to me as I looked at stats for Las Vegas. He suffered a disappointing 20th place finish here in the fall. But the two previous races he had back to back top three finishes with a second place last spring. Suarez has been top 20 in all eight NextGen races here, and in five of the last six he has finished inside of the top 11. Putting him either in the top 10 and cashing this, or as close to the top 10 as he can get.
Kyle Larson to Win (+500)
It’s just too hard to look past the favorite this week. Kyle Larson hasn’t won in 27 races, a long winless streak for NASCAR’s top driver and reigning champion. The biggest question for Larson this week, how do the new Chevy bodies do on their first true test in 2026? I think they’ll be just fine, and Larson gets back to his winning ways. Larson led 129 laps in the fall race here and came home in second place. He’s finished top two in five of the eight NextGen races here, leading 568 laps over the last six Las Vegas races.
According to my friends at Win The Race, Larson had both the best driver average (117) and best True Performance Rank (83.94) at Las Vegas in the last eight races. Larson on average leads more laps per race (74.38) than William Byron (33.25) his next closest competitor. All signs point toward the defending champion checking off his first victory of 2026.
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