The NFL off-season keeps humming along! The combine is behind us, and teams are finalizing grades on prospects in preparation for the NFL Draft. The franchisee tags have been applied to players like Breece Hall, Kyle Pitts, and a transition tag to Daniel Jones. Trades have happened, as the Rams and Ravens are pushing all chips in to win right now. Big names like Kyler Murray have been released, and free agency looms just a few days away. Before we get into free agency, before we get into the Draft, let’s dive into the odds right now, and more importantly, who is worth our NFL best bets in early March to be their respective AFC divisions’ winners.
We’ll walk through all four divisions, take a look at the odds for each team to win, and decide who is the best bet, or best bets, in each of the AFC’s four divisions. The East, West, North, and South. Which divisions will have repeat winners? Which ones will have surprises like the Patriots winning the East last year? Is anyone a lock? Let’s dive in!
AFC East: 2025 Winner – New England Patriots
2026 Odds
Buffalo Bills -130
New England Patriots +135
Miami Dolphins +2000
New York Jets +2200
The Buffalo Bills had taken over ownership of the AFC East, winning five division titles in a row. It looked like they’d cruise to a sixth straight title last year, before the Patriots hit the perfect storm of being an upstart team and having an easy schedule. Now, the two teams look like they should be the class of the division for years to come. New England won’t have as easy a schedule, but I expect them to compete.
The New York Jets get zero consideration from me. They are a dumpster fire of a franchise, and don’t appear to be on the right track. The Indianapolis Colts (or the AFC South) have an AFC East division title more recently than the Jets. Miami at the number is interesting; you could make a case that the coaching change helps them fix things, and they show up. For me, it’s pretty simple: pick your poison between the Bills and Patriots, the teams that have combined to win the last 16 straight AFC East titles.
I wouldn’t bet the Bills outright at -130, but they make an interesting team to toss into a parlay. I think the Patriots will give them a run for their money, but even though they can’t win in the postseason when it matters, this Bills team is elite in the regular season.
Pick: Buffalo Bills -130
AFC North: 2025 Winner – Pittsburgh Steelers
2026 Odds
Baltimore Ravens -155
Cincinnati Bengals +270
Pittsburgh Steelers +750
Cleveland Browns +1000
The AFC North is one of the most interesting divisions most years, and even more so in 2026. The Bengals are the only team returning their head coach, as the other three teams all opted to move in a different direction. Baltimore is the big favorite, and it’s well deserved. Lamar Jackson is an MVP, and when healthy, is still one of the best quarterbacks in the league. They’ve pushed all their chips in trading for Maxx Crosby from the Raiders, and clearly should be the best team in the division and in the Super Bowl conversation.
The Bengals need two things to compete for this division. Health, because that’s been a big struggle for Joe Burrow during his time. The other is defense. The Bengals had one of the worst in 2025, but picked up some young guys with promise. It should be their main focus through free agency and the NFL Draft. The Steelers won last year in a down year for the entire division, but Mike Tomlin is gone. Who’s at quarterback? How do they look under Mike McCarthy? For Cleveland, I’d be more excited if they didn’t downgrade at head coach. There are a lot of questions around this team.
The Ravens are the clear favorites, but at -155, they are a team only worth betting on in a parlay. If you are into it, you could get them + the Bills at +205. For me, the Steelers are the play in early March. There are a ton of questions around this team for sure. But if they can plug in a decent starter at quarterback, this isn’t a bad team. Mike McCarthy might just be Mike Tomlin, but he’s had a very similar career. Like last season, the Steelers will hang around with a chance late in the season in case their injury-prone league mates fumble it away. At this big a number, it’s worth the gamble.
Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers +750
AFC South: 2025 Winner – Jacksonville Jaguars
2026 Odds
Jacksonville Jaguars +165
Houston Texans +165
Indianapolis Colts +340
Tennessee Titans +900
The AFC South was also super competitive in 2025. The Indianapolis Colts were running away with the AFC’s #1 seed before Daniel Jones went down with an injury. The Texans and Jaguars slugged it out after that, with Jacksonville taking the crown. Very little change happened this year in the division, with the Titans making a coaching change. It’s a coin toss at the top between Jacksonville and Houston, as it should be. Both franchises are pointed in the right direction, both have solid quarterbacks and good coaching.
Indianapolis is a big question mark. They transition tagged Daniel Jones. Meaning other teams can offer him deals, and they have the first right to match. If he is back, how quickly can he recover from his injury, and will he look the same as he did in 2025? Tennessee has a long way to go. We’ll see what year two of Cam Ward brings, but they still feel a year or two away, and especially not worth it at only 9/1 odds.
The case is there for Indianapolis, but for me, this comes down to the Jaguars and the Colts. I was all aboard the Jaguars last year, but I love this Houston Texans team in 2026. They have a top-tier defense, and their offense is solid. CJ Stroud is better than this playoff game showed, and DeMeco Ryans is one of the most underrated coaches in the NFL.
Pick: Houston Texans +165
AFC West: 2025 Winner – Denver Broncos
2026 Odds
Los Angeles Chargers +175
Kansas City Chiefs +180
Denver Broncos +200
Las Vegas Raiders +2200
Speaking of super competitive AFC divisions. I present the AFC West. The Kansas City Chiefs were the biggest surprise in maybe all of the NFL last year. They had a down season, and then Patrick Mahomes went down with an injury. Mahomes appears on track to come back at the start of the year, and you can’t ever count them out with him. But the Chiefs are also in a mini-rebuild. They’ve stocked up on draft picks and still need some help.
The Raiders are pretty easy to discount here because of how strong the other three teams in the division are. Maybe if Mendoza is a hit, they’ll have a shot in a year or two. That leaves the defending winner, the Denver Broncos, and the Los Angeles Chargers. The Broncos may have been a Super Bowl team if not for the Bo Nix injury. They’ve built something good over there, but I question how strong it is. With the Chargers, I love what I see. You have a great coach who wins everywhere he goes in John Harbaugh, and an excellent quarterback in Justin Herbert. The way their relationship continues to grow, and Harbaugh implements his ways. This is the Chargers’ division to lose, and I’ll be rolling with them!
Pick: Los Angeles Chargers +175
