We’ve still got a full week of college hoops before the tournament bracket gets unveiled. We have a few teams that are already dancing, but the majority of conference tournament champions still need to be crowned. The power conferences get in on the action this week, and the Monday slate is a banger. We’ve gone through the lines, found a few areas of opportunity, and put together a card of college basketball picks that you’ll want to take action on. Let’s get into it.
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College Basketball Preview, Picks, and Best Bets for March 9
Matt Dewoskin ATS College Basketball Picks Record (Est 11/3/2025)
All Selections: 190-164-5
Perfect 3-0 Cards: 19-101
Northern Kentucky at Wright State
Start Time: 7:00 PM EST
This game is in the semifinal round of the Horizon League conference tournament, and it’s being played at a neutral site in Indianapolis, IN.
Northern Kentucky enters this game with a 20-13 overall mark and a 13-17 record overall against the spread. Wright State comes into this matchup with a 21-11 overall record and a 19-11 ATS record.
These two teams played twice this year. Wright State won both matchups outright. The Raiders covered as a 1.5-point favorite at home, and won as a 3.5-point underdog on the road. Wright State has won seven of the last 10 head-to-head matchups against Northern Kentucky, and has a 6-4 ATS record against the Norse over that stretch.
From a metrics perspective, this is a case of the wrong team being favored. Both teams have explosive offenses, but Wright State is 57th in the nation in effective field goal percentage and 51st in shooting efficiency. Northern Kentucky is a bottom-100 team in the nation in both defensive metrics. The Norse are also really poor at defending the perimeter, and Wright State is 49th in three-point shooting percentage.
Wright State is also better on the boards, and Northern Kentucky is worse in turnover differential. Wright State isn’t amazing on defense, but the Raiders do a better job of staying in front of their opponents. Wright State has already won twice against Northern Kentucky, and they make it a three-peat tonight. Lock up Wright State to cover.
Best Bet: Wright State +1.5
Northern Colorado at Montana
Start Time: 7:30 PM EST
This game is in the third round of the Big Sky Conference tournament, and it’s being played at a neutral site in Boise, ID.
Northern Colorado enters this matchup with a 20-11 overall record and a 15-13 overall mark ATS. Montana comes into this game with a 16-15 overall record and a 14-13 mark overall ATS.
These two teams played twice this year, with each team winning at home. Northern Colorado won and covered as a 5.5-point favorite in Greeley, CO. Montana won in Bozeman, MT as a 1.5-point underdog.
Northern Colorado ended the regular season as one of the hottest teams in the Big Sky conference. The Bears went 9-1 outright in their last 10 games played. Montana limped to the finish with a 4-6 record over their last 10 games played.
Both of these teams have really potent offenses and defenses that are really mid. However, there’s one area where Northern Colorado matches up well with Montana. The Grizzlies are 35th in the nation in three-point shooting percentage, but Northern Colorado is 24th in the nation in three-point shooting percentage against. Montana lives off shooting from deep range, but the Bears are capable of denying looks.
Northern Colorado also has a clear advantage on the boards and in the turnover differential. The Bears should make their shots, force Montana to score on the inside, and take advantage of opportunities off turnovers. Lock up Northern Colorado to win and cover in Boise.
Best Bet: Northern Colorado -3.5
Weber State at Eastern Washington
Start Time: 10:00 PM EST
This game is in the 3rd round of the Big Sky Conference tournament, and it’s being played at a neutral site in Boise, ID.
Weber State enters this game with a 16-15 record overall and a 16-13 mark overall ATS. Eastern Washington comes into this matchup with a 13-18 overall record and an 18-12 mark overall ATS.
These two teams played twice in Big Sky Conference play. Both teams won and covered at home. Weber State won and covered as a 3.5-point favorite in Orem, UT. EWU won and covered as a 2.5-point favorite in Cheney, WA.
This will be another game with a lot of points and not a lot of defense. Eastern Washington got better on the defensive end as the year ground on, but the overall defensive metrics still aren’t good. EWU does have the better shooting team, but the defensive metrics slightly favor Weber State. However, the Eagles have a clear advantage in free-throw shooting, and that will likely matter down the stretch.
Eastern Washington finished the year 8-2 outright and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games. The Eagles looked AWFUL in the non-conference slate and early in conference play, but they come into this as the best version of themselves. Weber State wasn’t terrible down the stretch, but they ended the year 6-4 in their final 10 games, and 5-5 ATS. Eastern Washington is playing better ball coming into the tournament. Let’s lock up EWU to win and cover as a short favorite.
Best Bet: Eastern Washington -2.5
The College Basketball Experience
For more analysis of every college basketball game in the 2025-26 season, tune in to The College Basketball Experience. Colby Dant, Moneyline Mac, and Noah Bieniek talk about each game on the entire slate. Listen for input on ATS and moneyline college basketball picks every night!
