It’s “numbered event” time again in the UFC, with UFC 326 going down this Saturday in the T-Mobile Arena in Paradise, Nevada. It’s not the strongest card on paper, but two fan favorites battle in the main event. For my MMA Prop Play of the Week: UFC 326, I’ve got a winning submission prop for the prelims. Let’s get it on, c’mon!
Go here for more UFC picks!
MMA Prop Pick of the Week: UFC 326
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs Kavanagh (aka UFC Mexico City)
Start Time: 5:00 PM EST
UFC newcomer Rafael Tobias is Bipolar. That isn’t a diagnosis on my behalf (I’m no doctor nor do I play one on TV) – it’s his nickname. The Brazilian light heavyweight makes his UFC debut on Saturday after winning on Dana White’s Contender Series, bringing a 14-1 pro record into the cage against Kazakhstan’s Diyar Nurgozhay.
More importantly, Tobias has won six of those fights via submission. It’s important because, despite never being taken down and not having a neck, Nugozhay has been tapped out in his only two UFC fights. There’s a great chance Tobias makes it three straight, and we cash a big prop bet on Saturday night.
UFC 326 Prop Pick: Rafael Tobias to win via submission (+193)
SGPN Daily Content for March 4th, 2026
Daily College Basketball Best Bets
Don’t Forget About our Free Picks Pages, Too!
COLLEGE BASKETBALL PICKS – THE PICKS POWERHOUSE
SOCCER PICKS – KICK IT ON THE PITCH
NASCAR PICKS – FEEL THE THUNDER
UFC PICKS – TAKE DOWN CORPORATE GAMBLING
If you’d like even more info to help make your MMA and UFC picks and predictions for UFC 326, check out the MMA Gambling Podcast. They’re dropping episodes five days a week to make you the smartest guy/gal at the bar.
