It’s time for NASCAR to turn left and right for the first time in 2026. They head down to Texas, where everything is bigger, to take on Circuit of the Americas (COTA). It’s a sharp contrast from opening the season with back-to-back drafting tracks. Two drivers stand above the rest in the odds, by quite a bit. Let’s dive in and take a look at this week’s NASCAR Picks, odds, and best bets for the DuraMax Grand Prix at COTA.
With the points race being a bigger topic due to the change back to The Chase system, Tyler Reddick heads into COTA feeling good after back-to-back wins. It gives him a 40-point cushion over his teammate and second place in the standings, Bubba Wallace. Chase Elliott, Carson Hocevar, and Zane Smith round out the top five as we head into the third race of the year.
COTA is a Grade 1 specification track for F1, and they’ll visit the course later in the year. Tucked in Travis County, Texas, near Austin, NASCAR moved to a shortened 2.4-mile course in 2025. They’ll use that same layout in 2026. The layout consists of 20-turns, and last year’s winner was Christopher Bell. His second of three straight wins to open the year after Daytona.
Odds to Win the DuraMax Grand Prix at COTA
Shane Van Gisbergen +115
Connor Zilisch +380
Christopher Bell +1100
William Byron +1200
Tyler Reddick +1600
Chase Elliott +2000
Chase Briscoe +2200
Kyle Larson +2200
Ross Chastain +2700
Alex Bowman +2700
Chris Buescher +2700
AJ Allmendinger +2700
Michael McDowell +3000
Ty Gibbs +3500
Kyle Busch +3500
Ryan Blaney +4500
Bubba Wallace +5000
Daniel Suarez +5500
Austin Cindric +6000
Ryan Preece +6000
Carson Hocevar +7500
Joey Logano +7500
Denny Hamlin +8000
Todd Gilliland +20000
Zane Smith +30000
Brad Keselowski +30000
Austin Dillon +30000
John Hunter Nemechek +50000
Noah Gragson +50000
Cody Ware +50000
Jesse Love +50000
Cole Custer +50000
Ty Dillon +50000
Riley Herbst +50000
Josh Berry +50000
Erik Jones +50000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr +50000
NASCAR Picks, Odds, and Best Bets: DuraMax Grand Prix at COTA
Chris Buescher Top 10 (+120)
“If I could place one bet this week, this is the bet.” That’s what I said on this week’s Cup Series betting picks episode of the NASCAR Gambling Podcast, and I stick by that. Chris Buescher has been an absolute road course ace in the NextGen era. He’s tied with Tyler Reddick (who you can still get about -150 and I think is worth it), for top 10 finishes in the NextGen car on road courses, they’ve each scored 17 top 19 finishes in the 23 races, and for Buescher it’s 17 of the last 22. The first time at COTA in the NextGen car was tough, resulting in a 22nd-place finish. Since then, it’s been two eighth-place runs and seventh place last year. Buescher knows how to get it done on road courses, and this is a great price for a consistent driver
Chase Elliott Over Kyle Larson (-115)
I was excited when I looked down the odds board and saw Kyle Larson, whom I regard as the best race car driver in the world, currently at a juicy price. But as I looked at the numbers and data, I quickly realized why he was so far down. Larson has not been good at COTA. And quite frankly, he was not good at road courses in a general sense last year. At COTA in the NextGen era, Larson hasn’t finished better than 14th, with two finishes of 29th or worse on the books. Last season, among the six road courses, Larson finished worse than 32nd four times.
Elliott, on the other hand, is always Mr. Consistent. He missed the 2023 race at COTA while recovering from his broken leg, but he won the inaugural race here in 2021, finished fourth twice, and 10th in 2024 in the other three races here. He’s beaten Larson in all four of their head-to-head races at COTA, pretty easily in most cases. Add in the four races Elliott won the head-to-head matchup against Larson on road courses last year, and he’s the easy head-to-head play this week.
Shane Van Gisbergen to Win (+120)
Outright is a very simple market this week. Bet Van Gisbergen, and don’t sweat it. The books are begging you to bet a variety of other guys this week with their longshot odds. I grabbed a few small insurance plays on Chase Briscoe and Tyler Reddick, but it’s going to be near impossible to beat Van Gisbergen this week. The Kiwi star struggled here last year as he learned his new full-time ride, but then it all clicked, and he’s won five straight road course races. And he’s rarely been challenged in those five races. He’s light years ahead of the rest of the field, and barring a mechanical issue, I don’t see anyone, yes, even Connor Zilisch, competing with him this week.
Last year, when he was “so bad,” he still had the best “true performance rank” and was second only to Tyler Reddick in driver rating, according to my friends at Wintherace.info. He also had the best average running position (3.92) and led the most laps (23). He got stuck after a slow launch on the last restart, and the car just didn’t have what he needed. Now that they’ve got things dialed in, it’s SVG’s world, and we are just living in it. I’m all chips in on the #97 this week, and my entire betting weekend rides on the back of Van Gisbergen. Something I’m very excited about!
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