March is less than 10 days away. You know what that means? The Madness is about to start. Conference play in college hoops is winding down, and teams are looking to stack resumes before it’s time for conference tournaments. One of the best ways to play March Madness is through Kalshi. Kalshi, the popular prediction market, has NCAA tournament futures listed, and you can start to build your portfolio today. We’ve gone through the current numbers and found a couple of best bets from Kalshi that you’ll want to lock up today! Let’s dig into it.
However, if you are looking for a sportsbook to place bets on our college basketball picks, you should check out MyBookie.ag for your next play.
NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament Futures Market Best Bets Update From Kalshi
March Madness Round of 64 Qualifiers: Best Bet
Play: Liberty – Yes $0.48
For context, a $100 ‘yes’ bet for Liberty to make the Round of 64 in the NCAA tournament would pay $209.
Liberty is currently 15-0 in conference and 23-3 overall. The Flames are only 94th in KenPom rankings, but they are running away from the field in Conference USA play. Liberty has a top-60 offense and a defense in the top half of all teams this year. They’re not the grittiest team in the country, but they can run teams out of the gym. Their net rating and strength of schedule will likely keep them out of an at-large bid, so they need to win the conference tournament to go dancing.
Liberty has the top seed in the Conference USA tournament locked up. This means that they get a first-round bye and only have to win three games to punch their ticket. Their first game will be the winner of the 8-seed vs. 9-seed matchup in the first round. At the moment, that will be Middle Tennessee and UTEP. Middle Tennessee should get past UTEP in the first round, and Liberty beat the Blue Raiders by 16 in Murfreesboro.
The semifinal round will be the winner of the 4-seed vs. 5-seed matchup. At the moment, it’s Western Kentucky and Louisiana Tech. Both teams are solid at home, but struggle on the road or at neutral-site games. Liberty has beaten both in their own gyms this year. The 2-seed in Conference USA should be Sam Houston. Liberty won at Sam Houston this year.
Liberty won this tournament last year, and they’re poised to repeat. Better than 2-to-1 odds on a team that has a proven track record and the inside track on the conference is wild. Let’s lock up Liberty at this price to make the Round of 64 in the NCAA tournament.
March Madness Final Four Qualifiers: Best Bet
Play: Iowa State – Yes $0.22
For context, a $100 ‘yes’ bet for Iowa State to make the Final Four in the NCAA tournament would pay $455.
To make the Final Four, teams typically need to have a top-20 rating for offense and defense in KenPom. It’s been one of those trends that has proven to be accurate more often than not. Iowa State is one of six teams that meet these qualifications at the moment.
The Cyclones have stayed healthy so far this year. Point guard Tamin Lipsey is playing through a groin injury, but there is plenty of time to get him healthy before March Madness gets into full swing. They also have a deep, senior-led roster that has played in the same system for years. Iowa State has been outclassed by more experienced teams or suffered key injuries at inopportune times. They are more experienced this time around, and they are currently healthy.
Iowa State will likely be a 2- or 3-seed this season, and this year is unlikely to be as chalky as last year. We won’t see all four one-seeds make it through to the Final Four. This is likely the last dance for this group at Iowa State, and if they’re going to make a run, the time is now. The draw will matter more than years past, but Iowa State looks poised to make a run deep into March, and you’re getting them at better than 4-to-1 odds. Let’s add a few shares of Iowa State to make the Final Four to our Kalshi portfolio.
Men’s College Basketball Champion: Best Bet
Play: Michigan – Yes $0.23
For context, a $100 ‘yes’ bet for Michigan to win the NCAA championship would pay $435.
Locking up the best team in the nation at better than 4-to-1 odds? Yes, please. Let’s add that to our Kalshi portfolio. Lock this in before Michigan plays Duke. A win could see the odds shoot up, and they’re a two-point favorite for a neutral site game.
Michigan has height and length that few teams in the country can match, and will be a really tough out for anyone in the NCAA tournament. A team that has toughness on the inside, a red-hot shooting night from the outside, and elite guard play is what it would take to get past Michigan. Some teams have two of those three, but few rosters are constructed to compete with the Wolverines. Michigan will go as far as its guards can get them. If they play smart and lean on the Michigan bigs, they’ll likely succeed. If anyone in their back court goes into hero mode, they could get clipped.
Michigan currently has the best defense in the nation, and it has a remarkably efficient offense. They could roll through the first two tournament weekends before getting really tested. That means you’re only two wins away from cashing a 4-to-1 ticket on the best team in the country. Add a share of Michigan to win the NCAA tournament in your Kalshi portfolio.
The College Basketball Experience
For more analysis on every college basketball game for the 2025-26 season, make sure you tune into The College Basketball Experience. Colby Dant, Moneyline Mac, and Noah Bieniek talk about each game on the entire slate. Listen for input on ATS and moneyline college basketball picks every night!
