It’s the last day of November, and the Daytona 500 is now only 77 days away! One of the best parts about being a NASCAR fan is that the off-season is always a short one, and racing is never far away. There’s a lot to settle still this off-season. NASCAR heads to the courtroom on Monday to begin their defense against team 23XI and Front Row Motorsports in their lawsuit against the series. The announcement of an updated playoff or points format should also be around the corner. As we continue to navigate the off-season, the books have given us outright odds on who will win the Daytona 500 and a plethora of other props to bet. So, let’s dive in and take a look at the early NASCAR picks for the Daytona 500, the odds, and bets to place now.
William Byron won the 2025 Daytona 500 and has now won back-to-back Daytona 500s for Rick Hendrick in the #24 car. Last year’s regular-season champion will look to become the first driver to win three Daytona 500s in a row in 2025. Caesars Sportsbook is among a few places offering out rights on the Daytona 500, but they are also offering a huge slate of prop bets as well. From who will win qualifying, to head-to-head matchups, manufacturer props, laps led, group bets, driver finishing positions, and much more. Outright numbers won’t likely move much between now and February, but a lot of these prop numbers will move or possibly disappear completely. The outright numbers make great parlay pieces now, to give you a better number come February. While the prop bets give you something to look forward to in 77 short days.
Odds to Win the 2026 Daytona 500
Ryan Blaney +1000
Joey Logano +1100
Austin Cindric +1400
Brad Keselowski +1400
William Byron +1600
Chase Elliott +1800
Kyle Larson +1800
Kyle Busch +2000
Denny Hamlin +2000
Christopher Bell +2200
Chase Briscoe +2200
Tyler Reddick +2500
Bubba Wallace +2500
Ryan Preece +3000
Carson Hocevar +3000
Chris Buescher +3000
Ross Chastain +3300
Ricky Stenhouse Jr +3300
Michael McDowell +3500
Alex Bowman +3500
Josh Berry +3500
Ty Gibbs +4000
Daniel Suarez +4000
Connor Zilisch +4000
Zane Smith +5000
Todd Gilliland +5000
Erik Jones +5000
Austin Dillon +5000
Noah Gragson +5500
AJ Allmendinger +6000
Justin Allgaier +6000
John Hunter Nemechek +6000
Shane Van Gisbergen +6500
Cole Custer +8000
Ty Dillon +8000
Riley Herbst +8000
Cody Ware +10000
NASCAR Picks: Early 2026 Daytona 500 Odds and Bets to Place Now
John Hunter Nemechek Under 17.5 Finishing Position (-125)
This one is one where the number has already moved, and shows why it’s important to get some of these in early. It was -115 when we talked about it on the NASCAR Gambling Podcast just nine days ago. Nonetheless, I still like the bet. Betting to finish under on Caesars means to finish better than that number. So in this case, Nemechek to finish 17th or better. Finishing better than 17.5 is something Nemechek has done in every career start at Daytona. Nemechek has run six Cup Series races at the World Center of Racing, with a 17th place being his worst result. He’s started three Daytona 500s, scoring a top-five finish in 2025, seventh in 2024, and 11th in his first attempt back in 2020 for Front Row Motorsports.
Nemechek has also finished 14th or better in three of his six starts at Talladega, proving to be a good drafting track racer. As mentioned earlier, it’s another great parlay piece. Let’s say you like the New England Patriots -7 on Monday Night Football like I do, that’ll move this to +245. So after a Patriots cover Monday night, you have a +245 ticket in your pocket for February that’s hit every time. Parlaying the Patriots with Nemechek to win increases his number to +11596, $10 would pay out $1,169.63, for example.
Kyle Larson Over 2.5 Laps Led (-115)
This is another bet that I don’t believe we’ll get the opportunity to place when the 500 gets closer. Larson has notoriously struggled at drafting tracks over his Cup Series career when it comes to where he finishes. However, during the race, he generally finds himself up front and in the mix. When they were at Daytona in the fall, Larson led three laps, which would have cashed this bet.
In three of his last four starts at Daytona, Larson has led at least three laps, as well as in six of his last 10 at the track. Hendrick also puts a big emphasis on qualifying in the 500. Larson has started on the front row in two of the last four Daytona 500s. Starting up front will help him lead laps early and hopefully cash this bet in the first few laps. At Talladega, Larson has also found himself out front over the last few races, leading three and six laps in each race last year, respectively.
Chevrolet to Win Daytona 500 Pole (+220)
Until the last two seasons, Chevrolet held a death grip on the Daytona 500 qualifying session. From 2013-2023, the manufacturer won every Daytona 500 pole award. The last two seasons, Ford took it in 2024 with Joey Logano, and Toyota snagged one last year with Chase Briscoe in his first attempt in the manufacturer. Ford typically dominates on drafting tracks when it comes to qualifying; that’s why they are the favorite for the year.
The thinking on grabbing this bet is that it’s been stated many times, Rick Hendrick wants to open the season with the pole award at Daytona more than any other race in the season. That’s why Hendrick puts such an emphasis on it, and why Chevrolet has won it so many times. They failed to do so the last two years, but they are modifying their body style this offseason. That could go either way on qualifying, but if they can find that extra speed advantage for something they care so much about, at +220, I’ll take it!
