The UFC octagon makes its annual September visit to the Accor Arena in Paris, France, this coming Saturday for UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs Borralho. We have a middleweight main event – but these are actually good middleweights for a change. Here are your UFC Paris predictions & best bets to make Saturday profitable.
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UFC Paris Predictions & Best Bets
Nassourdine Imavov (+115) vs Caio Borralho
I’m surprised by my pick in the main event, which could be a #1 contender fight in the middleweight division. However, there are a few reasons that I’ve fallen on France’s Nassourdine Imavov as my pick.
First off, just three weeks ago, Caio Borralho travelled from his native Brazil to Chicago and cut weight down to 185 pounds to serve as a backup for UFC 319’s middleweight title fight. Now he has to travel to Paris and do the same thing. That’s not good for your body.
Additionally, I like Imavov a bit more on the feet, think he has the takedown defense to keep this fight standing, and he has the superior resume.
Mauricio Ruffy (-168) vs Benoit Saint-Denis
The bloom is off the Benoit Saint-Denis rose for me after two knockout losses in the octagon. And it isn’t bound to get better for the Frenchman on home soil on Saturday. His opponent, Mauricio Ruffy, is called ‘One Shot’ for a reason.
And BSD hasn’t found a brawl that wasn’t of interest to him. But brawling with Ruffy is going to get him knocked out, whether it takes one shot or a few more to get the job done.
Modestas Bukauskas (-329) vs Paul Craig
This light heavyweight fight, third from the top, I’m labelling as an IQ test for Modestas Bukauskas. If he fights smart and avoids Paul Craig’s traps, he’s going to cruise to victory.
At this point in his career, it’s submission or bust for Craig, and it’s been all busts over the past few years. He won’t have the physicality to get Bukauskas down, nor the striking ability to hang on the feet. As long as ‘The Baltic Gladiator’ doesn’t humor Craig by engaging him in grappling, he’ll win this fight.
Rhys McKee (+117) vs Axel Sola
The debuting and undefeated Axel Sola is being a bit overvalued for his first UFC fight against veteran Irish fighter Rhys McKee, in my opinion. While he is 10-0-1, his resume is much weaker than McKee’s, who has fought five times in the UFC and six times in Cage Warriors.
But, more importantly, Sola gets hit – and rocked – too often in fights. And McKee is a precise and powerful striker, with a reach advantage in this matchup.
Brad Tavares (-200) vs Robert Bryczek
I can’t believe that Brad Tavares is -200 in 2025, never mind the fact that I’m actually picking him as a -200 favorite. But he should very easily beat Robert Bryczek.
Bryczek is a one-trick pony – he spams a big right hand, and if it doesn’t work, he tires out and loses, as he did in his UFC debut. Tavares has made a career out of playing it safe, so this is a winnable test for him.
Check out the MMA Gambling Podcast if you’d like even more UFC Paris picks. The guys are dropping five episodes a week to make you the smartest guy at the bar.
