The NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs kick off this weekend with a tough one. The Cook Out Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway. The 1.366-mile egg-shaped oval is known as the “Track Too Tough to Tame” and “The Lady in Black.” It lives up to its name and brings the ultimate challenge for these playoff drivers. Win this week, and you’ll guarantee a spot in the Round of 12, no matter your results in the next two races. Let’s take a look at this week’s NASCAR picks, odds, and best bets for the Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway.
The key thing to remember about this race is the extra 100 miles at the end of it. This one and the Coca-Cola 600 are the two races where the extra distance plays a big factor. Things generally look different at the end of 500 miles than they did at the end of 400. I put stock into both Darlington races, but either way, good or bad, if you have a consistent style in the fall race, I’m looking harder at that.
The spring race was also at the beginning of April, when it was cooler outside. Now, it’s the dead heat of a South Carolina summer. That’ll wreak havoc on the tires, the track, the drivers, and the pit crew. The race will start in the daytime and transition to the night. It’s the ultimate test for these drivers and teams. So, who will come out on top?
NASCAR Playoff Predictions, Championship Odds, and Best Bets
Odds to Win Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway
Kyle Larson +550
William Byron +550
Ryan Blaney +600
Denny Hamlin +600
Tyler Reddick +750
Christopher Bell +1100
Chase Briscoe +1300
Joey Logano +1600
Chris Buescher +2000
Chase Elliott +2000
Brad Keselowski +2000
Bubba Wallace +2000
Ross Chastain +2200
Kyle Busch +3300
Josh Berry +3300
Austin Cindric +3500
Ty Gibbs +5000
Alex Bowman +5000
Carson Hocevar +5000
Ryan Preece +6000
Erik Jones +8000
Daniel Suarez +17500
Austin Dillon +20000
Michael McDowell +20000
Noah Gragson +25000
Shane Van Gisbergen +25000
John Hunter Nemechek +35000
Todd Gililand +35000
AJ Allmendinger +35000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr +40000
Ty Dillon +50000
Cole Custer +50000
Riley Herbst +50000
Derek Kraus +50000
Josh Bilicki +50000
Justin Haley +50000
Zane Smith +50000
Cody Ware +50000
NASCAR Picks: Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway Odds and Best Bets
Chase Briscoe Over Tyler Reddick (+105)
Our friends over at ESPN are offering a hell of a deal here. Tyler Reddick was the 2024 regular-season champion and had himself a great season. It’s been tough in 2025; he hardly snuck into the playoffs in the final race of the year. He hasn’t even finished top 10 on a non-drafting oval track since they were last in Darlington back in April. Think about how long ago that was, yet he’s top five in odds this week. I will give him the fact that the 4th place finish was here at Darlington, and he’s been good at this track. But the 2025 version of Reddick hasn’t been a good one.
Briscoe, on the other hand, has been one of the hottest drivers in the series. He’s finished top five in five of the last 10 races coming into the playoffs, including a win at Pocono. Since the All-Star Race, Briscoe has finished better than Reddick in 10 of the last 15 races. Briscoe is also the defending winner of this race, and he did it in lesser equipment at Stewart-Haas Racing. Briscoe is also worth a bet to win at 13/1.
Erik Jones Top 10 (+400)
This is Erik Jones’ favorite race of the year. He brings his A-game to the extra 100 miles under the lights. He had a rough season last year and didn’t finish well, but in 2023, he scored a 10th-place finish in this Legacy Motor Club #43. In 2022, he won this race (the opening race of the playoffs, like it is again). He previously won this race when he raced for Joe Gibbs Racing in 2019 as well. In six of his eight Southern 500 starts, Jones has finished top 10. Erik Jones and the Southern 500 go together like peanut butter and jelly. He’s a must-have on your card this week. I’ll absolutely be betting him at 80/1 to win this race as well.
RETWEET TO CONGRATULATE ERIK JONES AND THE 43 TEAM ON THEIR WIN AT DARLINGTON! pic.twitter.com/y9kSZUnU4O
— FOX: NASCAR (@NASCARONFOX) September 5, 2022
Denny Hamlin (+600)
If you are looking for a favorite to bet on for this race, look no further than Denny Hamlin. Hamlin has the third-best average finish (10.3) of all drivers at Darlington in the NextGen era. He won here in the spring and has finished top two in two of the three Southern 500s in this car. Hamlin has twice won the Southern 500 and five times at Darlington in his career total. Denny has finished top 10 in six of the last seven true oval races, including two wins. Hamlin is having a stellar season and is coming to a track he loves in a race he excels at.
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