Some people like to sweat out a bet for 9 hard innings – others like immediate satisfaction. Count us as being in the latter, which is why we like to get down with MLB NRFI and YRFI picks. And we’ve decided to pass that knowledge on to you with our NRFI bets for July 4.
Of course, there are plenty out there taking blind guesses at this stuff. It’s easy to pick the best-hitting team or look at what happened in the last game. However, we spent the time pouring through the analytics to make sure that we give you the best odds to stay in the green on these NRFI and YRFI props for July 4. Come check out what we have cooked up for this slate of games.
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MLB NRFI and YRFI Picks – July 4
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Seattle Mariners
First Pitch – 4:10 pm EST
T-Mobile Park – Seattle, WA
Broadcast – MLB TV
Hitting the mound first for this NRFI is Bryan Woo, who has been anchoring down this Seattle rotation. He has a 2.93 ERA and has been putting up much better strikeout numbers than at any point during his career. He has back-to-back nine strikeout games – only throwing 6.0 innings in both of those contests. Now he’ll face the Pirates, who haven’t exactly been a beacon of offensive strength. They rank 26th in first inning runs on the year with 0.36 per game. They rank even worse over the whole game, where they come in at 28th with 3.52 per game. Woo should have no issue getting us three quick outs.
Seattle is definitely a better hitting team, which will give us more of a sweat in the bottom of the first. However, we’re going to put our faith in Bailey Falter for this one. He’s looked solid for the Pirates all year. He carries a 3.62 ERA and has been stellar on the road. In his last three road starts (15.0 innings), he’s allowed just three runs. That inlcudes scoreless starts against the Mets and the Padres. While the Mariners can hit a bit, they are a touch behind the squads that Falter has already been blanking.
NRFI/YRFI Bet for July 4: No (-140)
Kansas City Royals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
First Pitch – 9:40 pm EST
Chase Field – Phoenix, AZ
Broadcast – MLB TV
For our second NRFI, we’ll look to one of the late games. There is yet another pitching matchup I’m liking – this one out of the desert.
First on the bump is Eduardo Rodriguez and while his surface numbers aren’t great, he has been throwing well lately. Over his last three starts (16.0 innings), he’s only allowed two earned runs. That’s to go along with 20 strikeouts. That’s some dominant looks and now he’ll get to keep it going against the worst offense in MLB. The Royals are dead last in runs scored with 3.30 per game.
The bottom of the inning gives us a pitcher with even better stuff in Kris Bubic. The Royals lefty has a miniscule 2.25 ERA on the season with 101 strikeouts in just 96.0 innings. While his numbers were a little rougher in June than they were in May, he did manage to give us four scoreless first frames in five chances. With the Diamondbacks being a middle of the pack team in the first, I think Bubic can keep that going.
NRFI/YRFI Bet for July 4: No (-125)
If you’d like even more info to help make your NRFI and YRFI picks for July 4, check out the MLB Gambling Podcast. They’re dropping episodes five days a week to make you the smartest guy/gal at the bar with their MLB picks today.
