Nothing screams United States of America and the Fourth of July like watching the 2025 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest. Joey Chestnut is back and will face off against his buddy Patrick Bertoletti (2024 Mustard Belt winner). What do the 2025 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest betting odds look like? Plus, my Hot Dog Eating Contest bets.
At 10:30 A.M. EST in Coney Island, NY, Miki Sudo dominate the ladies competition on ESPN3. Then, at Noon EST on ESPN, watch the men shove and wash Hot Dogs and buns (HDB) down their throats, and maybe lose your own appetite along the way. Last year in this article my picks went 2-3 with a +1000 winning ticket on Patrick Bertoletti!
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2025 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Betting Odds, Picks, & Props
In 2021, Joey Chestnut set the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating contest record by eating 76 HDB. The weather is important to handicap, as hot and humid conditions usually mean less HDB eaten. This year, it’s expected to be in the low-80s with 50% humidity.
That is about as good as it gets on Coney Island in July during the Sun’s peak. Does that mean every contestant will out-eat their prior totals? Not necessarily. Last year there wasn’t an imposing figure with the nickname of “Jaws” leading the competition by 15 during the final minutes.
Guys like Geoffrey Esper (53 HDB) and James Webb (52 HDB) pushed themselves in the final minutes because a Mustard Belt was legitimately up for grasp. The only contestant who may push himself to the brinks is the defending Champ, Bertoletti. I’ll explain more in a little bit.
Women’s Outright Winner: 2025 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Betting Odds
-10000 Miki Sudo
+1600 Michelle Lesco
+2000 Dominica Dee
+2500 Tandra Childress
+3300 Katie Prettyman
+3300 Larell Marie Mele
+5000 Isabeau Prettyman
+5000 Any Other Competitor
*Odds via Bet Rivers
Men’s Outright Winner: 2025 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Betting Odds
Joey Chestnut vs The Field (BetMGM)
-2500 Chestnut, +900 The Field
Men’s Outright Winner Without Joey Chestnut
+175 Patrick Bertoletti
+225 Geoffrey Esper
+225 James Webb
+800 Nick Wehry
+3500 Max Stanford
+4000 Derek Hendrickson
+5000 Gideon Oji, George Chiger, Radim Dvoracek
+6600 Darrien Thomas, Ricardo Corbucci, Adrian Morgan, Jerome Burns, Cameron Meade
*Odds via BetMGM
2025 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Totals: 2025 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Betting Odds
Joey Chestnut: Over 71.5 (-105), Under 71.5 (-125)
Patrick Bertoletti: Over 51.5 (-130), Under 51.5 (+100)
Geoffrey Esper: Over 50.5 (+120), Under 50.5 (-150)
James Webb: Over 49.5 (-160), Under 49.5 (+130)
Nick Wehry: Over 48.5 (-125), Under 48.5 (-105)
Miki Sudo: Over 45.5 (-115), Under 45.5 (-115)
Derick Hendrickson: Over 32.5 (-115), Under (-115)
*Odds Via Caesars
Michelle Lesco: Over 25.5 (+110), Under 25.5 (-155)
Domenica Dee: Over 25.5 (+117), Under 25.5 (-167)
*Odds Via BetRivers
2025 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Matchups: 2025 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Betting Odds
-160 Patrick Bertoletti vs Geoffrey Esper +130
-160 Patrick Bertoletti vs James Webb +130
-115 Geoffrey Esper vs James Webb -115
-165 Nick Wehry vs Miki Sudo +130
*Odds Via DraftKings
2025 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Bets
+175 Patrick Bertoletti Men’s Outright Winner Without Joey Chestnut
We are going back to the Chicago King that cashed in big for us last year. In warm and humid conditions last year Bertoletti tallied 58 HDB. His closest contestants Geoffrey Esper, James Webb, and Nick Wehry all finished with 53, 52, and 46.75 respectively.
Bertoletti has also eaten 55, 53, and 51 HDB previously in this competition. Winning in 2024 wasn’t a flash in the pan success for the 40-year-old. It was just a demonstration of what he was capable of without Chestnut in the picture.
Speaking of Chestnut, in 2023 he ate 62 HDB, and in 2022 he had 63 HDB. If the Chicago native sees his Chestnut, his good buddy, within reach don’t be surprised if we see the 2024 Champ push himself to the brink.
58 hot dogs and buns aren’t far away from 62 or 63, however Joey Chestnut did eat 83 HDB in 2024, but it wasn’t on Coney Island during the July Fourth celebration. In an interview with The BetMGM Network Chestnut said this about the ’24 Netflix contest vs Kobayashi and whether Chestnut could break his record in 2025:
“Nathan’s hot dogs are awesome but they’re natural casing dogs. A little bit different than the dogs I was eating last year for Netflix… 83… it’ll be really hard to ever duplicate that because that was eating indoors. The dogs were cooked just for two people – so they were kept super fresh. For Fourth of July they are cooking dogs for 22 people on stage… All those little things affect everything.”
So with that being said don’t expect Chestnut to eat 80 HDB. He will be within striking distance, that extra sense of competition could unlock another new ceiling out of Bertoletti. Just for fun I’ll sprinkle the actual outright as well.
+175 Patrick Bertoletti Men’s Outright Winner Without Joey Chestnut (Caesars)
+1800 Patrick Bertoletti Men’s Outright Winner (Caesars)
-150 Patrick Bertoletti vs Geoffrey Esper
Geoffrey Esper will be competing in his 10th Nathan’s Famous Hot Dog Eating Competition this Fourth of July. Esper, Bertoletti’s stiffest competition not named Chestnut, has averaged just 44.2 HDB eaten per contest. The Oxford, Mass. native and has gotten better with age.
Last year Esper ate a personal best 53 HDB. In his four Nathan’s famous appearances since Covid he has averaged 49.875 HDB eaten. Bertoletti has 4 HDB tallies better than that, and also has tied or beaten Esper’s PB of 53 three times. Esper is 10 years older than Bertoletti but was still 5 hot dogs behind Bertoletti last year.
At 50 years old how much more ceiling is there? Whereas Bertoletti retired from Major League eating for 10 years (2012-2022) and has been enjoying competing in a consistent string of MLE events again. Bertoletti is in a groove and still has a few good years ahead of him.
-150 Patrick Bertoletti vs Geoffrey Esper (BetMGM)
-105 Nick Wehry Under 48.5 HDB
First of all, this number/price won’t be here for much longer. Nick Wehry set a new Nathan’s famous Fourth of July personal best last year with 46.75 HDB. In this year’s qualifier Wehry finished with a personal best of 47.5 HDB when he was competing right next to James Webb who ate 48.
Those two numbers are super important to note because it helps when these competitors are neck and neck, they bring the best out of each other in competition. The winner of the Wehry vs Webb qualifier earned a spot on this year’s Nathan’s Famous stage.
Last year without Chestnut there was a Mustard Belt legitimately up for grabs. Wehry devoured 46.75 which still was not even close to enough. Now with an imaginary total in the 60s or 70s the motivation won’t be as strong.
Unless Wehry’s wife, Miki Sudo, eats another 50 hot dogs this year. Then Wehry care about owning the big seat at the family dinner table?
2020 was the last time that Sudo out-ate her husband, 48.5-36. Wehry came back in 2021 improving his total by 8 HDB. Notably Sudo didn’t compete that year because she was pregnant with their first born child.
With all that said, Wehry was pushed to the brinks in his qualifier by Webb, and lost, only eating 47.5 HDB. He would have to climb his Nathan’s Famous best by two dogs. I’ll take -105 on that every day of the week.
-105 Nick Wehry Under 48.5 HDB (Caesars)
Morning Of July 4th Update
The market has changed A TON since I published this article on July 1st. Bertoletti is closing in minus-200-territory which isn’t crazy but there is not value left. Here’s a new and possibly better way to approach this year’s Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating contest from a betting perspective.
On FanDuel there is a “Men’s Outright Exact Order Trifecta.” Bertoletti has a HDB ceiling that neither James Webb or Geoffrey Esper has which makes him a rightful (-170) favorite on FD in the 2nd place market.
However Webb is +350 to finish 2nd, and Esper is +380. In 2024 Esper ate 53 HDB and Webb ate 52 HDB finishing in 2nd and 3rd behind Bertoletti. Nick Wehry finished 4th last year with 46.75 HDB. Wehry’s personal best HDB is 47.5. There is a great chance that the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating contest finishes in some form or fashion of 1) Joey Chestnut, 2) Patrick Bertoletti, 3) James Webb or Geoffrey Esper.
+320 1) Joey Chestnut, 2) Patrick Bertoletti, 3) James Webb Men’s Outright Exact Order Trifecta (FanDuel)
+350 1) Joey Chestnut, 2) Patrick Bertoletti, 3) Geoffrey Esper Men’s Outright Exact Order Trifecta (FanDuel)
