UFC Vegas 106: Burns vs Morales hits us from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas this Saturday.In the main event, Gilbert Burns looks to recement himself at the top of the welterweight rankings. Looking to ruin his chances is super prospect Michael Morales. We’ll hit that fight and dig through the rest of the card to give you our UFC Vegas 106 best bets. Come check out these UFC Vegas 106 picks for Saturday.
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UFC Vegas 106: Burns vs Morales – Predictions & Best Bets
Jared Gordon – Wins via Decision (+125)
One of my favorite bets this weekend is on Jared Gordon. I like his moneyline here as well, but I just think you can extract a bit more out of the fight by taking him by decision. He’s likely to pick away at Thiago Moises from distance being that he doesn’t want to tangle on the mat with him. In the last eight years he’s only picked up one knockout, which makes this seem like it’s going the full 15 minutes.
Carlos Hernandez ML (+160) vs. Hyun Sung Park
My favorite underdog of the week is Carlos Hernandez. He gets slept on because his record is not so hot. However, he ran into a pair of buzzsaws in Rei Tsuruya and Tatsuro Taira – before either of them were the known commodities that they are today. In every other of his fights, he’s shown quick hands and above average takedown defense. That should be enough to force Park to throw with him and pick up the win.
Tecia Pennington – Wins via Decision (-200)
This price may seem steep for a exact outcome prop, but Tecia Torres is not much of a finisher. Much like Jared Gordon, if you’re going to get her at all (her moneyline is -340), you might as well play the decision. She has two finishes in her entire time in the UFC and one of those was via a cut. Might as well reduce the juice and get her at a nice price in this one.
Mateus Camillo – Wins via KO (+200)
The newcomer to the UFC is one that everyone is excited for. He won a fight for Chan Sung Jung’s promotion, Z-Promotions, and quickly got the attention of the bosses. Now they give him a matchup in Gabe Green, who was KOed in 14 seconds in his last fight. Then he took two years off, which shouldn’t be good for his timing. Expect Camillo to find his chin early in this one.
Julian Erosa ML (+145) vs Melquizael Costa
Another dog play I like in this one is Julian Erosa. Costa comes to throw and isn’t afraid of taking a shot. However, Erosa has made a career of checking the chins of tough guys. Additionally, we’ve seen some issues with Costa’s submission defense. The front headlick submissions of Erosa are on point as well. With all of those paths to victory, I think it’s worth a chance that he finds one.
Dustin Stoltzfus – Wins via Decision (+800)
It wouldn’t be one of these articles if I didn’t take a massive swing at the end. Dustin Stoltzfus is going to be that swing for me. His wrestling is wildly underrated – just look to his fight on Contender Series with Joe Pyfer. We’ve seen Nursultan Ruziboev get controlled badly on the ground before. If Stoltzfus can replicate that, he can not only pick up a win, but cash this absurd line as well.
If you’d like even more UFC Vegas 106: Burns vs Morales bets, be sure to check out the MMA Gambling Podcast. The guys are dropping weekly episodes to make you the smartest guy at the bar.
