Sunday brings us a Mother’s Day double header in the NBA playoffs. In the opener, the Thunder look to right the ship against Jokic and the Nuggets. The nightcap on May 11 sees the Cavaliers looking to regain control of their series against the Pacers. While we’re interested in the winners of those games, the props that we came for cash in the first minute of the game. That’s right, we’re getting down with some NBA first bucket props for May 11.
However, unlike those other guys giving you their thoughts on first buckets, we’ve got the statistics to back up out plays. Come check them out.
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NBA First Bucket Props – May 11
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Denver Nuggets
Tipoff – 3:30 pm EST
Ball Arena – Denver, CO
Broadcast – ABC
In this series, we’ve seen the Thunder really take control of the tipoff. Chet Holmgren has won his team every single first possession in this series. That makes perfect sense in the grand scheme of things as Holmgren was winning tips at a 60.0% clip during the regular season. That figure is 10.7% better than we saw from Jokic, who was below league average. Despite getting all the early possessions, the Thunder have only managed to score first once. That number doesn’t jive with the season stats, as the Thunder scored first at a 2.5% better clip. As a result, I like the Thunder to score first in this one.
In the afternoon game, I’m going with Chet Holmgren for an individual player. One of the reasons why I like him in this one is that he’s been firing more from deep lately. That gives him multiple ways to get on the board early in this one. He’s also been getting a lot of early chances. He’s taken one of the team’s first three shots in back-to-back games.
First Bucket Bet for May 11: Chet Holmgren (+500)
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Indiana Pacers
Tipoff – 8:30 pm EST
Gainbridge Fieldhouse – Indianapolis, IN
Broadcast – TNT
In Game 3, the Cavaliers righted the ship in more than one way. Yes, they clawed back into the series with a 22-point victory, but they also got right on the first bucket. After not winning a tip in either of the first two game and not scoring first, they got the tip and the bucket. I’m still expecting more regression to the mean here, as the Cavaliers were the best team in the league on both of those metrics during the regular season. The margins are wide too. They hold a 49.6% advantage on the tip and a 19.9% lead when it comes to scoring first. That seems to hint that we’ll get another first score from Cleveland here.
If we’re getting greedy and looking at individual players again, I like Evan Mobley in this one. He’s only played in two games of this series, but in both of them he was heavily featured early. If you take the first three shots from the Cavaliers in both games, he accounts for 50% of those early shots. You can’t fade that kind of volume, so we’ll take him here at a solid price.
First Bucket Bet for May 11: Evan Mobley (+600)
If you’d like even more info to help make your first bucket bets for May 11, check out the NBA Gambling Podcast. They’re dropping episodes five days a week to make you the smartest guy/gal at the bar.
