Some people like to sweat out a bet for 48 hard minutes – others like immediate satisfaction. Count us as being in the latter, which is why we like to get down with NBA first scorer props. And we’ve decided to pass that knowledge on to you with our first scorer bets for January 5. Go here for NBA Championship odds.
Of course, there are plenty out there taking blind guesses at this stuff. It’s easy to pick the most popular player or look at what happened in the last game. However, we spent the time pouring through the analytics to make sure that we give you the best odds to stay in the green on these first scorer props for January 5.
Come check out what we have cooked up for this slate of games.
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NBA First Scorer Props – January 5
Charlotte Hornets vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Tipoff – 6:00 pm EST
Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse – Cleveland, OH
Broadcast – NBA TV
In this game, the home squad will arrive with plenty of advantages not only in the game, but for the first bucket. While the Hornets are above average when it comes to winning the tip at 54.6%, they still lag well behind Cleveland. The Cavaliers have the best win percentage on the tip this year at 82.4%. The tip winner is currently scoring first 65.8% of the time, which should automatically have us on the Cavaliers here. When you add in that their first scorer success rate is 13.4% higher than that of Charlotte, it clinches it for us.
With as much success as the Cavaliers have had, there’s plenty of solid options out there for their first scorer numbers. There is one player who gets far more chances for early shots than the first scorer log would seem to indicate. Despite scoring first just four times this year, Darius Garland takes a lot of the early shots for the Cavaliers. In fact, he has taken the first shot for Cleveland in two of the last three games. We’ll get some really great odds on getting one to fall here.
First Scorer Bet for January 5: Darius Garland (+650)
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Houston Rockets
Tipoff – 7:00 pm EST
Toyota Center – Houston, TX
Broadcast – NBA TV
Some of the data for this matchup gives us a bit of a mixed signal. To start, the Lakers have a 5.8% lead in terms of winning the jump on the Lakers. While that isn’t a big number, it’s not negligible. Although that would usually give them an advantage when it comes to scoring first, it simply hasn’t this year. Despite being an above average team on the tip, the Lakers rank in the bottom third of the league when it comes to scoring first. The Rockets, on the other hand, are second in the league in scoring first with a 67.7% success rate. That rate is 23.6% higher than that of Los Angeles. With a gap so wide, I’m inclined to ignore the slight tip lead and play with the Rockets here.
It’s a bit hard to look at the play log for the Rockets and pull anything away. A lot of their early play action was dictated by Jabari Smith Jr., who had already scored first seven times this year. With him out for at least a month, we only have a single game of what that might look like. However, over the course of the year, we’ve seen some of Smith’s early looks wind up in Jalen Green’s hands. I expect even more to head that way now.
First Scorer Bet for January 5: Jalen Green (+650)
If you’d like even more info to help make your first scorer bets for January 5, check out the NBA Gambling Podcast. They’re dropping episodes five days a week to make you the smartest guy/gal at the bar.
