Bowl season rolls on! We’re only four days away from the College Football Playoffs. This means that we only have 18 games left to play until college football goes away. The good news is that we’ve got a nice little slate today and a few options to build an Underdog Fantasy College Football Pick’em entry.
Underdog Fantasy College Football 12/28 Bowl Games Higher / Lower Picks
Today’s slate features two plays that involve true Freshman quarterbacks making their first start! The other is a system play that has to be included.
Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl: Rutgers vs. Miami
Gavin Wimsatt Lower 25.5 passing attempts
Rutgers quarterback Gavin Wimsatt only threw the ball more than 25 times in four starts this year. That’s four starts out of 12 in 2023.
There’s also rain in the forecast, so Rutgers has even less of a reason to want to try to sling it. This is shaping up to be a low-scoring, high-punting, ground’n’pound day in The Bronx.
The Miami Hurricanes have the 79th-ranked pass defense in the nation and allowed 235.6 yards per game. However, it hardly matters. Both of Miami’s safeties have opted out, and they’ll be missing a few other key contributors on defense.
The lower number on Wimsatt’s passing attempts is essentially a system play at this point. There’s a non-zero chance that he ends the game with more rushing attempts than passing attempts. Have the lower number on Wimsatt passing attempts in your Underdog Fantasy College Football Pick’em entry.
Pop Tarts Bowl: Kansas State vs. NC State
Jayce Brown Higher 54.5 receptions
Kansas State is without their starting quarterback and will roll with true freshman Avery Johnson. In 2023, Johnson has attempted 35 passes and completed 25 of them. He has also thrown for three touchdowns and zero interceptions. Keep in mind, these are mostly garbage time numbers, but he’s shown that he can complete a pass against a team at the FBS-level.
NC State has a solid rush defense, but their pass defense is 76th in the nation. The Wolfpack has allowed 235.6 passing yards per game. Johnson should be able to find a few soft spots, and he may look for fellow true Freshman Jayce Brown.
Brown has gone higher than 54.5 receiving yards in four of his last six games. Brown should get targeted enough to rack up at least 55 yards against NC State. Go higher on his receiving yards total on your Underdog Fantasy College Football Pick’em entry.
Valero Alamo Bowl: Oklahoma vs. Arizona
Jackson Arnold Higher 29.5 rushing yards
Oklahoma quarterback Dillon Gabriel has gone back into the transfer portal. This means that the Sooners will go with true Freshman Jackson Arnold.
Arnold has picked up a few snaps in mop-up duty, but he’ll get his first extended action today. The majority of the Sooners starting offensive line has either opted out or entered the portal. Arnold may end up running for his life often enough to clear the 29.5 rushing yards total that Underdog Fantasy has him at.
Arnold has cleared this total only once. He managed to get a run against Arkansas St. early in the year. He rushed for 39 yards on five attempts against the Red Wolves.
Arizona has the 23rd-ranked rush defense in the nation. They only allow 114.4 rushing yards per game. Arnold may struggle in called runs or RPOs, but he should be able to get loose a few times on scrambles.
The Sooners are also likely to have a simplified playbook for Arnold. He may only get two reads and be told to run. He should manage to go higher on his rushing yards total, and you’ll want to add him to your Underdog Fantasy College Football Pick’em entry.
Do you need more best bets for this week’s bowl games? Check out The College Experience podcast and get the top plays from Colby, Patty C, and NC Nick. Listen to the show, take our advice, and let it ride!
