NFL Picks Week 10 (Ep. 2727)

NFL Picks Week 10 Recap

Sean Green (@SeanTGreen) and Ryan Kramer (@KramerCentric) break down their NFL picks for Week 10 against the spread, from Kirk Cousins landing in Minnesota to Giants vs. Commanders on Thursday night. Both of them lock the 49ers minus 4 at Dallas and the Steelers plus 3.5 against the Bengals.

Eagles At 2-7 And A Chargers Team With No Excuse

The Eagles hit the bye at 2-7, and Sean Green puts his pre-season odds of that at 5 or 10 percent. Lose your starting quarterback, Saquon Barkley and a bunch of receivers and the offense is going to struggle. The Chargers are the stranger story. Most of their guys are healthy, Justin Herbert has played every game and the defense has held up, yet Sean says you have to have them dead last in the power rankings. Ryan Kramer isn’t far off, lumping them in with the Dolphins, Carson Beck’s Cardinals and the Titans at the bottom. Then there’s Harbaugh. Nobody is talking about him on the next-coach-fired board, and the guys think that’s right, because the owner is cheap and a pile of Chargers beat reporters just left the beat.

Trade Deadline Fallout And A 125-1 Interception Ticket

Jacksonville added Jordan Davis at the deadline and also traded for defensive tackle Davon Godchaux, which struck Sean as odd because the Jags were already pretty good against the run. Kramer sees it differently. He thinks the two-down run stuffer is undervalued, and as a Giants fan who watched them lose Dexter Lawrence and add DJ Reader, he argues a guy who just plays the run makes life easier for the linebackers and the edge group. He isn’t grading the trade itself. His point is that every great team for decades has been able to stop the run, so paying for that skill makes sense.

The headline deal sent Kirk Cousins from the Raiders to the Vikings, clearing the way for Fernando Mendoza to get reps in Las Vegas. Kramer thinks it tells the Raiders locker room the team is moving on to next year, but he has a personal reason to love it. He holds Cousins at 125-1 to lead the league in interceptions, sitting on eight, behind Sam Darnold and Matthew Stafford at nine, Daniel Jones at 10, and Drake Maye and Justin Herbert at 11. A move that could have meant a benching instead makes Cousins the starter in Minnesota. And since the Vikings already had their bye, he could play 18 games. Kramer also has Jones at roughly 42-1 and Stafford somewhere in the 30-1 range, so now he just needs Herbert and Maye to sit a couple of games.

Tennessee was the other big seller, shipping out Jeffrey Simmons and Amani Hooker, its first- and second-round picks from the 2019 draft, with Hooker landing in Buffalo. Kramer gives the Titans credit for the return but came away from the GM’s press conference convinced Simmons was only shopped to friends, and he thinks two late first-round picks undersold him. Kansas City picked up Josh Downs, and Kramer’s hot take is that Downs is immediately the Chiefs’ best receiver. Keenan Allen went to the 49ers, which leaves the Colts very thin at pass catcher. Atlanta also moved Jessie Bates and its center. Kramer reads that as Matt Ryan being honest about where the Falcons are, which may not be great news for Michael Penix.

Circa Millions Record And The Booby Prize Race

Before the board, the hosts ran the numbers. The guys are 25-19-1 in the Circa Millions, good for 57 percent, and both hosts sit at 54 percent overall. Sean is hitting 65 percent on his locks to Kramer’s 62, while Kramer leads on money-line dogs at 44 percent to 33 and on teases at 56 percent to 44. Kramer also dug up a Circa entrant named Ace Vegas who max-entered, made Week 1 picks for all of it and never made another pick. Then there’s longtime listener Matthew Friendly, who started 3-7 through Week 2, committed to picking losers from then on and is now tied for second in the booby prize race.

Thursday Night And Germany: Giants And The Close Your Eyes Special

The Commanders visit the Meadowlands on Thursday night with the Giants laying 2.5, Washington at +115 on the money line and a total of 41. Washington has won seven of the last 10 in this series, with one tie, and Jayden Daniels ran for 100 yards and two touchdowns the last time these teams met. Sean says that’s the only real Washington path, because Daniels has to be running the football. Kramer points to the coaching edge instead. The Giants figured things out on both sides of the ball late in the last meeting, and Washington is now down Terry McLaurin among other key pieces. So both hosts lay the 2.5 with the Giants. A Dan Quinn team on a short week is about as juicy a fade as it gets.

Sunday starts early in Germany, where the Lions are 3-point favorites at -155, the Patriots are +135 and the total is 51.5. Kramer says the look-ahead was in the 1 range. New England underperformed the spread by more than 21 points last week, which makes this a close your eyes special, a spot that is only 4-5 ATS this season. Kramer is fine with that because, unlike last week, the Detroit defense will allow Drake Maye his deep ball. Sean likes the matchup too, since the Lions struggle to guard tight ends and Hunter Henry was effective last week. He also cites Mike Vrabel at 29-19 ATS off a loss and a dome team playing outdoors overseas. Both take the Pats +3, and Sean goes further with New England +135 as his dog.

Early Window: Jets Points, Jaguars Chalk And A Colts Split

Buffalo comes to the Meadowlands on a short week in a back-to-back road spot, and the line has dropped from 8.5 to 7.5 with the Jets +355 on the money line and the total at 51. Kramer notes that teams coming off Monday Night Football are 4-11 ATS this season. He also isn’t buying the Bills defense as fixed, because the last two weeks came against bad quarterbacks and James Cook needed 31 carries on Monday. Sean thinks the Jets can run with Breece Hall, and Josh Allen looked gassed after that game. Kramer adds that 51 is a crazy total for two teams that should lean on the run. So both hosts take the Jets +7.5, with Sean calling it a home division dog.

Kramer’s Jaguars lay 10.5 in Tennessee in another back-to-back road spot, and he isn’t worried about it. He ranks Jacksonville first in the league at curb-stomping teams it should beat, and Tennessee sits firmly in his do-not-bet pile. Sean agrees. He points out that Robert Saleh is 0-3 ATS off a bye and that Joe Burrow threw five touchdown passes against this Titans defense even in its good game. The Jags have also won seven of the last eight in the series. Toss in the public beef between Liam Coen and Saleh, and both hosts lay the 10.5 with Duval.

The Colts are 3.5-point favorites over Miami at -190, the Dolphins are +165 and the total is 37.5, and this is the first real split of the week. Sean takes the Dolphins +3.5. He thinks Ollie Gordon runs hard against a bad Colts defense, Kyle McCord gets the friendly confines of a dome, and Miami is 4-4 ATS and frisky enough to keep this a 17-14 field goal game. Kramer calls the Colts a great play. McCord is a first-time starter who drops Miami from very below average to practice-squad level, the Jonathan Taylor trade talk is done, and Indianapolis has a clear quarterback edge with Daniel Jones. He lays the 3.5, and he warns Sean not to lock up McCord.

Chiefs, Browns, Saints And A Packers Debate

Kansas City lays 3 in Atlanta at -180, with the Falcons +155 and a total of 46. Kramer’s read starts with Penix, who looks fine when the run game works and the ball comes out quick but throws about the worst ball in the league when anyone is near him. Sean likes one Falcons angle, since the Chiefs allow 42.5 receiving yards a game to running backs and Bijan Robinson catching passes is when Atlanta clicks. Harrison Butker’s missed kicks also worry him in a field goal game. But Kramer notes that Kansas City is strong in adjusted line yards while Atlanta sits in the bottom eight, and the Falcons secondary just lost Jessie Bates. So both lay the 3, with Sean expecting Kenneth Walker to get loose.

Houston lays 5 in Cleveland at -225, with the Browns +195 and a total of 41.5. Sean likes the Browns a lot as a home dog. Their defense has huge home and road splits, the way to beat Cleveland is to run the ball and the Texans can’t do it, and the Browns are on a 19-9 ATS run at home. He also thinks Deshaun Watson, who cleared concussion protocol last week, gets the Browns receivers going against a Texans pass defense that has had its issues. Kramer adds that Houston has a divisional Thursday game on deck plus a back-to-back road spot, and the Watson revenge narrative is right there. Both take the Browns +5.

The Saints lay 2.5 against Carolina at -140, with the Panthers +120 and the total at 48.5, and the hosts split again. Sean takes New Orleans, because the Panthers secondary has been abysmal, the Carolina offensive line is banged up and he wants to see game two with Jordyn Tyson. Kramer goes the other way. The Saints have been terrible at home for multiple years, and they let a Browns team on its third straight road game take them to overtime last week. He trusts the Panthers offense more and takes the points. He also found an old calendar reminder from himself that says not to tease the NFC South, so that Panthers number stays off his card.

Green Bay lays 3 against Minnesota at -165, with the Vikings +145 and a total of 42, in Kirk Cousins’ return to the Vikings. Kramer can’t get past the number. The look-ahead was 4.5 and only moved to 3, which he says isn’t close to the right adjustment for a quarterback who gives Minnesota an immediate baseline. And Brian Flores against a one-dimensional offense keeps pulling him to the Vikings +3. Sean’s counter is that the 4.5 was never real, because with Carson Wentz starting this would have been 7. He doesn’t trust Kevin O’Connell, and he has Cousins outdoors at Lambeau on a short week with Blake Cashman in concussion protocol. Sean lays the 3 in a Packers revenge spot.

Late Window: Mendoza’s Debut, Carson Beck And Niners Dude

The Raiders are 6.5-point home dogs to Seattle at +250, the Seahawks are -300 and the total is 40.5. The look-ahead was 6, Drew Lock’s oblique injury pushed the open to 3.5, and then the trade and more Lock news took it back to 6.5. Sean takes the Raiders. Over the last decade, 21 quarterbacks making a first start against a team with a double-digit win total went 5-16 straight up but 14-7 ATS, and he expects Mendoza to pick up some big third downs with his legs. Kramer takes Seattle. He expects the Seahawks to run on Las Vegas, and he says Cousins was everything in that Raiders offense. They do agree on one thing: don’t bet Mendoza for Offensive Rookie of the Year at 3-1.

The Rams lay 9.5 in Arizona at -500, and the total has dropped to 39.5 from an open around 46.5. Puka is set to miss significant time, Adams is out and the Rams have a bye up next. Carson Beck makes his Cardinals debut, and his Offensive Rookie of the Year price has already gone from 40-1 to 18-1. Kramer found that Sean McVay is just 5-8 straight up against his own disciples. Sean wants to feel confident the Rams can put up 28 to cover, and he isn’t there, so he expects the backdoor to be open. The real risk is a backup Arizona offensive line against Myles Garrett and Aaron Donald. Both take the Cardinals +9.5.

America’s game of the week has the 49ers laying only 4 in Dallas at -215, with the Cowboys +185 and a total of 56. Kramer can’t believe the number, because Kyle Shanahan puts linebackers and safeties into conflict and the Cowboys defense leaves receivers open every week. Sean brings the stat that seals it. San Francisco uses pre-snap motion more than any team, and Dallas gives up the most EPA against it. Brock Purdy is also 3-0 straight up and ATS against the Cowboys, and Keenan Allen arrives having just played this defense. Kramer projects a 31-21 Niners win. Both lay the 4, and both lock it up.

Primetime: Steelers Getting Points And Ravens Laying Them

Sunday night has the Steelers, off a bye, catching 3.5 in Cincinnati, with the Bengals -185, Pittsburgh +160 and a total of 50. The public is all over the Bengals, and Sean is happy to take the other side. The Steelers are 21-7 ATS as a division dog since 2016, which is 75 percent, and Mike McCarthy is 13-3 ATS off a bye. Pittsburgh is also first in DVOA against the run while Cincinnati sits 17th, and Sean expects Jaylen Warren to run on this defense. Kramer adds that the Bengals haven’t covered this number at home against Pittsburgh since Week 12 of 2021. So both take the Steelers +3.5.

Monday night is a rough one. The Chargers get 4.5 in Baltimore at +195 with a total of 38.5, and Jacoby Brissett starts for the Ravens against a Chargers team with Justin Herbert dealing with a hand injury. Sean admits the Ravens have failed to cover in eight straight home games, the longest home ATS losing streak in franchise history. Brissett also hasn’t won a home start since a 23-17 overtime win over the Bucs in 2022. But the Chargers are a broken team, the defense that held them together has fallen apart, and Jesse Minter gets a revenge shot at his old team. Both hosts lay the 4.5 with Baltimore, and Sean isn’t putting money on the Chargers the rest of the year.

NFL Picks Week 10 Locks, Dog And Tease

Kramer’s locks start with the obvious one, the 49ers -4, then the Chiefs -3 on the road, a lay he says he never would have expected three weeks ago. He finishes with the Jaguars -10.5. His dog is the Steelers on the money line at +160, with the Jets and the close your eyes special as backup considerations. Then he teases the Cardinals up to 15.5, the Seahawks to -0.5 and the Browns up to 11, steering clear of that Panthers number because of his NFC South reminder. And before anyone questions the tease, he notes he’s hitting 56 percent on them this year.

Sean locks the Steelers +3.5, the 49ers -4 and the Browns +5, and his dog is New England at +135 to get it done overseas. He admits it’s an interesting week for teasers, so he goes Baltimore up to +1.5, Jacksonville down to -4.5 and the Raiders up to +12.5. The five consensus plays land where the hosts overlap. The 49ers -4, Steelers +3.5 and Browns +5 come straight off the lock lists. Then the guys add the Jaguars -10.5 as the Liam Coen revenge game and the Patriots +3 as the close your eyes special.

NFL Week 10 Odds

Podcast Chapters

0:00 Download the SGPN App Today!
0:13 Week 10: Eagles, Chargers and Dolphins
5:36 Trade Deadline: Jordan Davis to the Jags
8:13 Kirk Cousins Trade and Interceptions Bets
11:21 Titans, Keenan Allen and Falcons Trades
17:21 Lean Graphics and Circa Million Booby Prize
27:11 Commanders vs. Giants Picks
35:57 Patriots vs. Lions Picks
46:15 Bills vs. Jets Picks
56:27 Jaguars vs. Titans Picks
1:05:44 Dolphins vs. Colts Picks
1:12:01 Chiefs vs. Falcons Picks
1:19:04 Texans vs. Browns Picks
1:26:10 Panthers vs. Saints Picks
1:30:49 Vikings vs. Packers Picks
1:39:57 Seahawks vs. Raiders Picks
1:47:29 Rams vs. Cardinals Picks
1:56:49 49ers vs. Cowboys Picks
2:02:49 Steelers vs. Bengals Picks
2:08:27 Chargers vs. Ravens Picks
2:15:08 Locks, Dog and Tease
2:22:35 Thank You for Participating in the Sports Gambling Podcast