Monday Night Football Props + NFL Week 7 Recap
Sean Green (@SeanTGreen) and Ryan Kramer (@KramerCentric) recap NFL Week 7, starting with the Giants upsetting the Texans as 10-point dogs. Then they break down their Monday Night Football props for Eagles-Cowboys, led by Tanner McKee passing yards and a Dak Prescott interception.
The Giants Stun Houston And A Five-Yard Heartbreak
Start with the Giants, because nobody gave them a chance. Ryan Kramer’s team came in as 10-point dogs and walked out with a 27-21 outright win over the Texans, and J.J. McCarthy played like a guy with nothing to lose. The handicap on McCarthy staying under four and a half rushing attempts cashed exactly the way it was drawn up, since the Giants’ run game controlled the game and the Houston pass rush barely heard its name called. The Giants also blitzed C.J. Stroud and sped him up all day, so you can absolutely heat him up. Deonte Banks shut down Nico Collins, which nobody saw coming, and Malik Nabers got another 100-yard game with Derek Stingley Jr. on him most of the afternoon.
The ladders cashed too. Ryan Kramer hit the Cam Skattebo ladder and Sean Green hit the Ollie Gordon ladder. Then a listener named Joe sent over the slip of the week: $10 to win 156,000 on five running backs all reaching 100 rushing yards. Jaylen Warren at +391 got there. So did Gordon at +790, Skattebo at 20-1 and Tony Pollard at +389. But the shortest price on the ticket, Jonathan Taylor at +263, finished with 95 yards. Missing six figures by five yards on the chalk leg is about as brutal as a beat gets, and the guys gave it the moment of silence it deserved before moving on to McCarthy.
Nobody is crowning McCarthy yet. Ryan Kramer compared him to Jameis, a young kid driving fast who didn’t crash the car this week, and pointed out that the Eagles coming out of the bye are a thinking man’s test the Texans never were. There was also a shot at Kevin O’Connell, now on ultimate fraud watch for not developing a young quarterback, and Sean Green pushed back with Sam Darnold, Carson Wentz and Taysom Hill. Then there’s the asset math. The Giants gave up a fifth-round pick for McCarthy, and after five quarters another team would already pay more than that, which is a great problem to have with Jaxson Dart coming back from his knee injury.
Thursday Cash And A Lions-Packers Push
Thursday got the week off right. The Bears won and covered 30-24 against the Patriots, both hosts were on Chicago, it was one of Ryan Kramer’s locks, and the guys went four and one in the Circa Million. The AJ Brown unders were an easy cash because Drake Maye still can’t get anything going with him while those two offensive linemen are out. Cole Kmet over one and a half catches also landed at a nice price. New England only stayed close thanks to a late TreVeyon Henderson screen that went for a score in what should have been Hail Mary time, and Caleb Williams made some serious big boy throws in the win.
Sunday’s Lions and Packers game was chaos. Detroit won 20-17, which graded as a push on the show’s sheet even though plenty of three and a halfs were floating around. Sean Green was on the Packers moneyline and watched Green Bay miss two field goals from under 30 yards, drop passes on big plays and get their hands on Jared Goff interceptions without catching one. Goff became the first quarterback to open a season with 14 touchdown passes and zero picks. Then Dan Campbell went for it on fourth and one from his own 24 in a tie game. The decision bothered nobody as much as the play call, a slow-developing run that never had a chance.
The phone lines were busy. Jackson called in as a Lions fan admitting Detroit got some favorable calls, and the guys agreed it was one of the worst officiating days of the year, headlined by Cam Skattebo drawing a personal foul for running over a defender. Even the broadcast booths are calling out the refs more this season. Then Dick Puncher’s voicemail laid out the Packers fan’s misery in order: losing the starting center and the backup center on the opening drive, receivers dropping passes again, Josh Jacobs dropping a late touchdown and Trey Smack missing a chip shot field goal at the end. The voicemail cut out before the rant finished, which felt about right.
Paris, The NFC South Mess And Miami Owning The Jets
Over in Paris, the Steelers beat the Saints 16-10, and the guys had Pittsburgh at three and a half, so both got home. Darnell Washington scored the first touchdown, which Ryan Kramer hit. The whole handicap from Sean Green was Jaylen Warren running all over this Saints defense, and he did, piling up 101 rushing yards to blow past the 63 and a half total that got handed out, plus 36 more through the air. Meanwhile the idea that New Orleans would get up for a cultural moment in France got buried. Anyone who used the fleur-de-lis as a handicap learned that lesson the hard way.
That loss leaves the NFC South wide open, and the current odds read Panthers +130, Falcons +175, Bucs +450 and Saints +840. Sean Green would buy some Saints at that number because the whole division is bunched together. Also, if you grabbed the Bucs earlier at +700 or +725, that ticket looks a lot better after Tampa Bay destroyed the Panthers 43-13. The worry going in was Baker Mayfield’s thumb, and he looked fine, with the run game and defense carrying the day. Jordan Mason Taylor first touchdown call from the VSiN show landed for the Jets but not for the game, and he went on to score twice anyway.
Then there were the Dolphins, who won outright 28-25 over the Jets. Ollie Gordon ran for 100 yards to cash another ladder, and this was no fluke because Miami led 21-7 before finishing the Jets off after it got to 21-17. Aaron Glenn is now 0-8 against the AFC East, and the Dolphins are on a 17-4 run against New York. Garrett Wilson was even caught yelling at Geno Smith. So the Chargers are officially the last winless team, and a buddy of the show pointed out that market opened at 100-1 at the Circa to start the season, which makes a nice little cash for anyone holding it.
Browns Rally, Falcons Pounce And Baltimore Melts Down
The Browns won and covered 27-24 against the Titans, and Sean Green locked them up on the Circa card, which looked like a mistake when Tennessee jumped out 14-0. Then Cleveland started throwing it all over the yard. Deshaun Watson threw for 300 yards after an early interception, and Quinshon Judkins ran for two touchdowns and 96 yards, which opened up everything else. Tennessee wasted a monster day from Tony Pollard, who went for 25 carries, 129 yards and three touchdowns. Cam Ward still doesn’t look like an NFL quarterback, and when you blow a 14-point home lead, the guys put that on the coaching staff first.
Atlanta went into San Francisco’s game as three-point dogs and won outright 29-20. Christian McCaffrey pulled a hamstring, which also killed a fun degen parlay that needed nine catches from him and 81 receiving yards from Bijan Robinson, who stalled at 59. Michael Penix Jr. threw for 213 yards and three touchdowns, and Brock Purdy had probably his worst game of the year. So the Bears, Niners and Falcons division parlay that Ryan Kramer is holding is still alive. Elsewhere, the Colts covered the six and a half in a 16-10 loss to the Vikings, with Daniel Jones getting lit up by Brian Flores blitzes all afternoon.
The Ravens found a new way to break their fans. Baltimore led the Bengals 13-0 at halftime and lost 35-13, and per ESPN research they are only the third team in NFL history to lose by 20 or more after leading by 13 at the half, joining teams from 1950 and 1941. Sean Green was on Cincinnati for an easy cash. Tee Higgins went six for 148, and Derrick Henry managed 45 yards on 17 carries. Big Cat called in from a golf course and announced the whole team is going in the paddy wagon, with Jesse Minter going in headfirst. The good news is that he tailed the ladders, took the Bijan ladder to the top and hit the Mason Taylor yards.
Broncos Roll, Rams Handle Vegas And Seattle Pays Out
The Broncos won and covered 30-16 over the Cardinals, and both hosts had Denver locked. It started slow with field goals on both sides, but then Bo Nix ripped off a 62-yard run, and the offense opened up from there. Trey McBride went 10 for 111 in the loss. Jacoby Brissett is who the guys thought he was, so the next question is Carson Beck. Arizona plays Dallas next week and doesn’t have its bye until Week 14, and the call from Sean Green was simple: just throw him in against Dallas and see what you have. The same people appalled at McCarthy starting against the Texans should take note.
The Rams won 35-21 on the road against the Raiders, who almost backdoored it in garbage time with Kirk Cousins, and Davis Allen was the Rams tight end who scored twice on National Tight End Day. Since Las Vegas started 3-0, the Raiders have lost four straight. Then the Chiefs got worked 20-3 in Seattle. Harrison Butker missed field goals, including one before halftime that could have made it a one-score game, and Seattle kept converting long third downs. But that was the last leg home for Ryan Kramer on the tale of the tape, a 25-1 cash after a sweaty afternoon with the Colts, Browns and Falcons all needing to come through.
The Monday Night Football Props Card For Eagles-Cowboys
The card writes itself, and it starts with Tanner McKee passing yards against this Dallas defense. Ryan Kramer grabbed 200-plus yards at +100 on Kalshi, because McKee went over that number in his start last week and in meaningless season-ending starts in each of the last two years. Dallas is always a great matchup for passing yards. Also, the guy who invented the defense the Cowboys are running poorly is Vic Fangio, the Eagles’ defensive coordinator, so the offense might have some tips. Sean Green ran it through the Clutch Parlays numbers and landed on the same play, McKee over 199 and a half, because plenty of game scripts get him home.
Next up is Dak Prescott throwing an interception, and the price is a gift. Ryan Kramer priced it at -155, Sean Green had -210 as the fair number, and Kalshi was dealing it at -115, so both hosts are on it. Then there’s Dallas Goedert over 41 and a half receiving yards with DeVonta Smith and Dontayvion Wicks out. Goedert went for 77, 38 and 61 in his three healthy games, and the 61 came with McKee last week. To round it out, Ryan Kramer added Eagles over one and a half team field goals at -105, because the ball should move but the red zone may not be crisp, and the team market protects you if the kicker gets hurt.
The touchdown markets are where the fun is. Sean Green likes Elijah Moore anytime at 12-1, figuring he gets the third receiver reps over Hollywood Brown, who has no catches this season, while Moore saw two targets and a catch last week. The first touchdown card from Sean Green is McKee at 40-1 as a tush push dart throw, Moore at 65-1 and Darius Cooper at 19-1. Ryan Kramer switched in Moore at 65-1 too, plus the Philly defense at 35-1, Cooper at 19.50 on Kalshi and McKee at 47-1 after some line shopping. And no Cowboys made either card, if you were wondering.
Then the long shots. The degen play from Sean Green is a McKee touchdown, a Moore touchdown and the Eagles moneyline, priced at 227-1 on Novig. Ryan Kramer built a nastier combo on Kalshi: Dak throws a pick, the Eagles defense or special teams scores a touchdown and Dallas never reaches the end zone at all, which came back at 128-1. Basically, that’s a pick six and a Cowboys shutout from the end zone. Both of them will sweat these live at the Monday night watch along, with the Discord line open for any Cowboys fan brave enough to call in early.
Podcast Chapters
0:00 Download the SGPN App Today!
0:47 Giants Upset the Texans
10:55 Cheddar Watch Party
11:51 Bears Beat the Patriots
14:57 Jackson Calls In on Lions and Refs
19:23 Lions Edge Packers 20-17
25:19 Dick Puncher Voicemail
28:00 Steelers Beat Saints in Paris
31:56 Bucs Destroyed Panthers
33:33 Dolphins Win Outright Against Jets
35:50 Browns, Titans & Deshaun Watson Burner
38:42 Niners, Falcons, Colts & Vikings
41:53 Bengals, Ravens & Big Cat
49:39 Broncos, Cardinals & Carson Beck
52:57 Rams, Raiders & Chiefs in Seattle
59:08 Tanner McKee Passing Yards
1:00:46 Dak Prescott Interception
1:01:55 Dallas Goedert Receiving Yards
1:03:50 Jake Elliott Field Goals
1:08:14 First Touchdown Card
1:12:13 Tanner McKee, Elijah Moore & Pick Six Combo
1:13:31 Monday Night Watch Along
1:15:26 Thank You for Participating in the Sports Gambling Podcast
