Five weeks of NFL action are in the books, and we’ve learned a lot about these teams and what we think they are in 2026. Lines continue to shift each week, and they’ve shifted a lot from back in May when the schedule was released. Last week, they overcorrected a little too much. Will that be the case again in Week 6? Let’s take a look at the biggest line moves for NFL Week 6, why they moved, and what we should be betting on.
Last week we saw the Dallas Cowboys line swing 6.5 points from -3.5 favorites to -10 point favorites entering the week. Tampa not looking good on top of Jalon Daniels starting the game, was the reason, but Tampa was able to win the game outright. In London, the Jaguars went from +2.5, across zero, all the way to -4.5. They did win, but didn’t cover the game. Denver was the sole game of the three we covered last week that moved the correct way, going from +2.5 to -3.5. They covered, sending the Chargers to 0-5. This week we have three more games to highlight, two of which jumped across zero and the favorite flopped from May.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+1.5) to (-3)
Jacksonville makes the list for a second week in a row from London. Last week they went from +2.5 to -4.5. The books got it right in the fact that they won outright, and honestly, watching the game, I feel like they should have covered. Now, for a second straight week, it’s the same story again. In London, they go from projected underdogs to favorites. This time it’s against the Houston Texans, a division rival. Jacksonville has the advantage of having been in London already.
Jacksonville has looked great this year, going 4-1, with their only loss to a strong Broncos team. Houston is just 1-4, but all of their losses have come to good teams. Houston has hung in close. The teams are 5-5 ATS each over the last 10 games against each other, and the game has been within seven points in five straight matchups.
This is one of the toughest games on the board to pick. As the team with the better record, the “home field” advantage of London, and having an extra week there are all enough to warrant the move to a favorite. However, Houston has won outright in three of the last four matchups, and getting points is too good to pass. Simply because this should be a close game, I’ll take the new underdogs.
Pick: Fade the Movement – Houston -3
Pittsburgh Steelers (+1.5) to (-3)
It’s a similar swing for the Pittsburgh Steelers as they head to Tampa Bay, where they are projected to be 1.5-point underdogs. They now find themselves as the favorites in this game. Aaron Rodgers has found some of his youthfulness again, and Pittsburgh is 3-2 on the season. Tampa Bay finally picked up their first win last Thursday night in an upset against the Dallas Cowboys. Jalon Daniels looked impressive filling in for Baker Mayfield, but can he do the same against a tough Steelers defense?
Tampa hadn’t looked good the first four weeks of the year. But in Week 5, on a short week against the Dallas Cowboys on the road, they caught lightning in a bottle. Can they duplicate that this week is the question. I agree with the line movement here, seeing as Baker is still out, and Rodgers has looked as good as he has the last few weeks. At this point, I’ll take the grizzled veteran head coach and quarterback over the young rookie. All they have to do is win by a field goal.
Pick: Follow the Movement – Steelers -3
Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5) to (-8)
Chiefs and Chargers. Two teams that couldn’t be much further apart right now. The 0-5 start for Los Angeles has everyone scratching their heads. Kansas City looks like their old dominant self, off to a 4-0 start and getting an early rest with a Week 5 bye. Kansas City hasn’t been blowing out all their opponents, however. Denver took a Week 1 lashing, and Miami is a very bad team. The Colts and Raiders both took them to the wire.
Los Angeles just looks lost. The new offense is clicking, and injuries are piling up. Maybe Madison Beer has taken away Justin Herbert’s focus; hard to blame him for that one. However, be it via the back door or just keeping the game close, they’ve held the score to within eight points in their last three games. Those three games were against elite teams: the Bills, Seahawks, and Broncos. I get the number moving through two key numbers of three & seven, but is eight too many points? The Chiefs are elite off the bye and will win again, but give me LA to just keep it close enough to cover.
Pick: Fade the Movement – Chargers +8
