NFL Prop Bets Week 5 Recap
Sean Green (@SeanTGreen) and Ryan Kramer (@KramerCentric) welcome CJ Sullivan of Bottom Line Bombs for NFL prop bets Week 5. Quarterback rushing props are all over this one, from Ryan Kramer backing Brock Purdy on the ground to Sean Green fading Daniel Jones.
Tomlin’s Minecraft Era And A Quarterback Rushing Grudge
Tomlin’s 20-minute Minecraft video gets the show rolling, and the best part, as CJ Sullivan (@CJSullivan_) points out, is that it says Part One. So there’s more coming. Then the talk turns to Jason Garrett. CJ Sullivan was stunned to learn Garrett coached the Cowboys for 10 years, and Ryan Kramer has a simple theory for why he lasted: he was a made guy, and he must be really good at talking to his boss.
The props talk starts with a grudge. Sean Green went 4-1 on his main props last week. Meanwhile Ryan Kramer spent the week reading mean comments telling him to stop giving out quarterback rushing props after he went one right and one wrong. His answer was to give out more of them. So the card leans hard on quarterback legs, with four rushing props at the position, plus another quarterback rushing play teased for the Monday night props show. That one stays under wraps until then.
Quarterback Legs Lead The NFL Prop Bets Week 5 Card
Sean Green opens with Daniel Jones under 10.5 rushing yards, and the case against Jones is ugly. He hasn’t gone over this number all season. Ten yards is his single-game high, and his longest run so far is five yards. Last week he ran four times for two yards. Now he gets a well-rested Steelers defense that held Deshaun Watson to his season low in Cleveland, with a travel and rest disparity on top of it. Jones looks hesitant to run, and when he does go, it hasn’t worked, so the under is the play.
CJ Sullivan flips to the over with Drake Maye over 31.5 rushing yards. Yes, it’s a high number. But Maye ran for 54 last week against Buffalo after opening the season with seven carries for 47, and he finally seems to get that his legs have to carry this offense. The Raiders are getting pressure from the whole defensive line now, not only from Maxx Crosby. That pressure against a shaky New England line should push Maye out of the pocket. Las Vegas also gives up the seventh-most rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks. And for the record, the guys agree he doesn’t scamper. He strides.
Ryan Kramer’s favorite play of the night might be Brock Purdy over 19.5 rushing yards, a prop Purdy has gone over in all four games this season. The Seahawks already let Justin Herbert run six times for 40 and Drake Maye go seven for 47. Sean Green adds that Seattle allows the fourth-most rushing yards to quarterbacks in the league. Purdy also hasn’t been sacked once going into his fifth game, which says he’s getting out of trouble with his feet. The number looked so low that Ryan Kramer did a double take, and he plans to go heavier on it with a paper ticket.
Then there’s Jayden Daniels under 31.5 rushing yards. Ryan Kramer notes that no quarterback has had more than four rushing attempts against the Giants this season. That sample (Dak Prescott, Matthew Stafford, Cam Ward and Jacoby Brissett) isn’t full of runners, but this Giants defense also has the speed to contain him. Daniels is wearing a brace that works almost like a cast. The last time he dislocated that elbow, he missed five weeks, came back in Week 14, ran four times and got knocked out again. The guys passed on the 6.5 attempts number because a kneel down makes attempts too random, so it’s the yards under.
The Pass Catchers Worth Backing And Fading
Sean Green cashed Brenton Strange over 33.5 receiving yards last week when Strange caught seven for 95 against Cincinnati. So he’s going right back to the well with Greg Dulcich over 24.5 receiving yards. Last year the Bengals gave up touchdowns to tight ends. This year it’s yards, and he thinks that continues. Dulcich didn’t get involved against the Vikings last week, but he went for 55 at home the game before. CJ Sullivan loves it too, and he points out an easy step ladder to 40 yards sits at plus 223.
Ryan Kramer is back on Tyler Warren longest reception under 18.5 yards, and he can’t believe the number didn’t move. Warren’s longest catch was 13 last week. Before that it was 15, eight and nine, yet the book hung 18.5 again. Daniel Jones is playing scared, the Steelers should get pressure, and Patrick Graham’s defense wants offenses to settle into the underneath zones. That adds up to short check downs to Warren, not shots down the field, so he’s taking the under again.
Ryan Kramer also likes Vale over 37.5 receiving yards for the Saints, another player who has cleared his number in every game. He had 54 against the Falcons, 39 against the Raiders, 64 against the Ravens and 69 against the Lions. Minnesota should take Olave out of the game, and Vale is out there for all the snaps. Tyler Shuck also keeps taking chances into the blitz, which means big plays. CJ Sullivan adds that the Saints barely run, with Shuck throwing 56, 34, 42 and 48 times. He has a new nickname now, too: White Jameis.
CJ Sullivan hit a Roman Wilson ladder last week and comes back with Roman Wilson over 40.5 receiving yards. The Colts allow the seventh-most receiving yards to wide receivers. Wilson also ranks sixth in the league in targets of 20-plus air yards, and last week he had a 38-yard touchdown and a 49-yard catch. His longest reception was sitting at 19.5. But Sean Green gave out a 20-yard catch at plus 220 last time, and the books seem to be adjusting, so the guys went with the yards.
Sean Green fades a tight end he usually likes with Hunter Henry under 3.5 receptions. Henry has gone over this only once this season, the five catches against the Bills last game, and he sits 3-1 to the under. He thinks a lot of that Bills game came down to the matchup. The Raiders have good linebackers and a front seven that should keep Drake Maye from completing a ton of passes. So the number looks low, but four catches is a real ask here.
Ryan Kramer goes back to the Giants game for rookie Malachi Fields over 27.5 receiving yards. Fields averages just short of 70 air yards a game with an 18.4 average depth of target, so one deep catch could nearly get there by itself. The Commanders struggle once the ball goes more than five yards downfield. CJ Sullivan backs it up, too, because Washington ranks 21st in EPA per pass and allows 7.44 yards per attempt. Throwing it deep to the outside is what this Giants offense does best.
CJ Sullivan closes his card with Will Shipley over 14.5 receiving yards. Jacksonville gives up the second-most receiving yards to running backs in the NFL. The Eagles are a mess at receiver after another hamstring injury, and Shipley should be the RB1, though not a bell cow with Damien Pierce around. He should still catch a lot. And if you want to get greedy, his receiving yards ladder climbs all the way to 70 yards at 36 to 1.
Passing And Rushing Totals Around The League
CJ Sullivan starts what he calls a season-long tradition: back whoever plays the Detroit Lions. This week that’s Jacoby Brissett over 269.5 passing yards. Detroit is giving up 330 passing yards a game, plus the most passing yards and passing touchdowns to quarterbacks by far. If you’d played whoever faced the Lions every week in fantasy, you’d have the number two quarterback behind Josh Allen. Game script helps, because this matchup carries the highest total on the board. Arizona’s banged-up offensive line is the worry, but he expects a shootout.
Sean Green likes Mike Washington over 23.5 rushing yards for the Raiders against New England. Backup running backs have found room against the Patriots, with Chris Rodriguez running for 37 in Week 3 and George Holani going for 29 in Week 1. New England’s run defense has been bad all year. He also doesn’t trust Jeanty’s efficiency, and Washington is good for one long run a game. He had nine carries last week, and the Raiders should be happy to pound the rock, so the over it is.
CJ Sullivan hit the JK Dobbins rushing under last week but missed on Tony Pollard, and he’s going right back to Tony Pollard under 49.5 rushing yards. This time the opponent is Houston. The Texans allow only 3.5 yards per carry and held Jonathan Taylor and James Cook under 70 yards each. Tennessee’s offensive line is bad, and Pollard doesn’t factor into the passing game. Then there’s Sean Green’s theory that DeMeco Ryans has taken over the play calling, which only makes this matchup tougher for Tennessee.
Sean Green also stays on his Kyler Murray fade with under 214.5 passing yards against the Saints. He knows the Saints have issues and that this game is in a dome. He also knows Murray went over this number last week. But he expects a bounce back from New Orleans and figures they’ll attack on the ground, whether or not Justin Jefferson plays. His reasoning is blunt: he needs more Kyler Murray unders because he doesn’t believe in him at all as a quarterback.
The Underdog Entry And Ladder Time
The Underdog entry has three legs: Greg Dulcich higher 24.5 receiving yards, Jayden Daniels lower 29.5 rushing yards and Fairbairn higher 1.5 field goals made. Ryan Kramer took the Daniels leg at the lower number, since the attempts line was the same. CJ Sullivan brought the Fairbairn leg, noting Tennessee allows the fifth-most field goals. With the 40% Move the Chains boost, a $50 entry returns $334.
CJ Sullivan brought his own ladder this week, a real one from an estate sale, and his pick comes from the 49ers and Seahawks game. San Francisco gives up the most receptions and targets to running backs, so he’s laddering George Kittle receptions. The lowest rung is 1.5. Then three catches pay plus 175, four pay plus 438 and five pay plus 980. If you climb all the way to six catches, it’s 20 to 1, and he thinks this is exactly how you attack San Francisco.
Sean Green had nearly the same idea and stuck with it anyway, laddering Emanuel Wilson receiving yards. His bet is less about volume and more about Wilson breaking one after a 23-yard catch last week. The rungs are 25 yards at plus 390, 30 at plus 550, 40 at plus 920 and 50 at plus 1260. Sixty yards pays 20 to 1, which Wilson could reach on three or four catches. CJ Sullivan likes treating the two as a ladder race, since both can get there.
Ryan Kramer went to Dolphins at Bengals, where Cincinnati has quietly leaked receiving yards to running backs. Bucky Irving had a big game through the air in Week 1. Then Woody Marks caught five for 27 in Week 2, and Jaylen Warren caught three for 49 in Week 3. Ollie Gordon’s number sits at just 10.5 receiving yards. So the ladder jumps straight to 15 yards at plus 142, then 20 at plus 225, 25 at plus 350 and 30 at 5 to 1. Fifty yards pays 15 to 1 if you’re into that.
Three Guys, Two Guys And A Pile Of Interceptions
Sean Green’s degen parlay is three guys getting some yards. Greg Dulcich needs 50 receiving yards, and he had a 55-yard game the last time Miami was at home. Mike Washington needs 40-plus rushing yards, which he’s already done twice this season. Emanuel Wilson needs 30 receiving yards after his 23-yard catch last week. Together it pays 179 to 1, though he rounds up to 180. It’s a small zip code, but every leg has a game this season that says it can hit.
Ryan Kramer went smaller with two guys in a Bears and Packers game he sees as a sneaky shootout. Luther Burden started coming alive last week and is being used differently with Bagent than he was with Keenum. With Edrin Cooper gone, Burden should have space in the middle of the field, so he’s taking him to have a 100-yard game at 7 to 1. The Bears secondary has issues too, and if they focus on Watson, Golden should find room. Pair both 100-yard games and it’s 35 to 1.
CJ Sullivan pulled his parlay back, sort of. The base version is two quarterbacks throwing two interceptions each in the Jets and Browns game: Geno Smith at plus 322 and Deshaun Watson at plus 466, about 26 to 1 together. The Jets got their first pick last week, and he figures they come in bunches. Then he adds Bagent at plus 453, because Ben Johnson wants him more aggressive, and Jordan Love at plus 351. All four quarterbacks throwing two picks each pays 729 to 1, and as the guys put it, there’s no law here.
Podcast Chapters
0:00 Download the SGPN App Today!
0:44 Tomlin Minecraft & Jason Garrett
8:10 Daniel Jones Under Rush Yards
11:46 Drake Maye Over Rushing Yards
13:41 Brock Purdy Over Rushing Yards
16:12 Greg Dulcich Over Receiving Yards
17:33 Tyler Warren Under Longest Reception
19:48 Jacoby Brissett Over Passing Yards
25:25 Mike Washington Over Rush Yards
26:38 Jayden Daniels Under Rushing Yards
30:15 Tony Pollard Under Rushing Yards
36:00 Kyler Murray Under Passing Yards
36:53 Vale Over Receiving Yards
43:10 Roman Wilson Receiving Yards
45:46 Hunter Henry Under Receptions
46:56 Malachi Fields Over Receiving Yards
50:38 Will Shipley Receiving Yards
52:03 Underdog Entry
55:51 Ladder Time
1:03:54 Three Guys & Two Guys Parlays
1:08:50 Two Interceptions Parlay
1:12:32 Thank You for Participating in the Sports Gambling Podcast
