October is here… well, kind of. The first round of the MLB Playoff starts on Tuesday and we’re, of course, digging into the NRFI market. We have some NRFI bets for September 27.
All four of the Wild Card Series get started on Sunday with the action kicking off at 2pm EST. Come check out what we have cooked up for this slate of games.
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MLB NRFI and YRFI Picks – September 29
Chicago White Sox vs. Houston Astros
First Pitch – 5:00 pm EST
Daikin Park – Houston, TX
Broadcast – Peacock
It’s not often we cover situations where we like the YRFI in a game. It’s even less common that we like the YRFI in a playoff game – and a Game 1 to boot – but here we are. A lot of the cause for confidence comes from this pitching matchup. AJ Blubaugh will be the first to the bump serving as an opener. He’s only thrown 11.2 innings this month, but has still managed to give up 10 earned runs in the process and walked eight. Hagen Smith starts for Chicago and has definitely been better, but he also has given up three runs in his last five appearances (6.1 innings). That’s still an ERA over 4.00 with nearly as many walks as innings pitched.
One more reason to love the YRFI here is how these teams hit. Nobody in the majors was as good at scoring in the first inning as the White Sox were. Their 0.66 first inning runs per game topped everyone by a wide margin. They were also a top five offense over the course of the season. The Astros weren’t quite that good, but also were well above average in both scoring and first inning scoring. They also scored 9.00 runs per game over their last three games, so they enter this series hot.
NRFI/YRFI Bet for September 29: Yes (-115)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees
First Pitch – 8:00 pm EST
Yankee Stadium – Bronx, NY
Broadcast – NBC
The evening game brings us back to a place of sanity with what a playoff series should look like. Presumed AL Cy Young winner, Cam Schlittler toes the rubber first. He closes the season second in terms of ERA (1.95), third in strikeouts (239) and fourth in WHIP (0.92). He also had good history with the Red Sox, who he held scoreless over 5.2 innings late in August. Even if he isn’t able to put together another long gem like that, the first inning should be easy enough. The Red Sox ranked 29th in first inning scoring – only ahead of the Padres.
The Yankees are obviously a more formidable offense to deal with. While they rank above the average in scoring, they do not in first inning scoring. That’s one of the few offensive categories that have them ranking in the bottom third of the league. It’ll be Payton Tolle who is charged with keeping that going. The Red Sox rookie earned the Game 1 start over Sonny Gray (who’ll throw game two), and he did it with a 3.03 ERA. He’s been even better down the stretch. In the month of September, he’s put up a 1.53 ERA and should be able to find us three quick outs here – especially with the current status of Aaron Judge.
NRFI/YRFI Bet for September 29: No (-165)
Bonus Pick: Cubs/Padres NRFI (-140)
Looking to put together a three-pick parlay? This extra play may just be the piece that you’re looking for. Throw it together with the other two to net a three-pick parlay for +414.
If you’d like even more info to help make your NRFI and YRFI picks for September 29, check out the MLB Gambling Podcast. They’re dropping episodes five days a week to make you the smartest guy/gal at the bar with their MLB picks today.
