It’s only Week 2 in the NFL, but this game already feels important. The Jacksonville Jaguars head to Mile High Stadium to take on the Denver Broncos. The Jaguars just dropped 34 on the Browns and looked very good. However, it was against the Browns. The Broncos just got run out of Arrowhead, 31-10. Last December, these same Jags walked into Empower Field and snapped Denver’s 11-game winning streak. The number we’re getting needs a better alibi than home-field advantage. Let’s take a look at the Jaguars-Broncos preview, picks, and best bets!
Jaguars VS. Broncos Preview, Picks, and Best Bets
Location: Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, CO
Date: Sunday, September 20th, 2026 at 1:05 PT, 4:05 ET
Broadcast: CBS
Spread: Jaguars +2.5 (-102) | Broncos -2.5 (-118)
Total: Over 45.5 (-108) | Under 45.5 (-111)
Moneyline: Jaguars (+125) | Broncos (-148)
Why Jacksonville Could Cover (+2.5)
The Jaguars can cover this number just by being themselves. That’s by being the team that showed up against Cleveland and the version of the team that already beat the Broncos on this same field. Trevor Lawrence went 18 for 23 for 234 yards and four touchdowns in Week 1. He also had zero interceptions. The offense converted half of its third downs, scored on every red-zone trip, and never handed the Browns a short field. Is that because it was the Browns? Maybe. However, it has more to do with Liam Coen’s offense.
The other half of the cover is the Jacksonville front. They had five sacks in Week 1. Again, I get it, it was against the Browns. However, Denver’s offensive line just allowed four sacks and three Bo Nix fumbles in Kansas City. If Travon Walker and company get Nix into second-and-long, the Broncos are in trouble. They only converted a little over 16% of their third downs against Kansas City.
Jacksonville doesn’t need to win 34-10 like they did last week. They just need a couple of explosive plays from guys like Parker Washington and a defense that keeps Denver in the 17- to 20-point range. Getting 2.5 points feels too easy, and the moneyline could be live if the Jags show up.
Why Denver Could Cover (-2.5)
We can’t give a full Jaguars-Broncos preview and bets without exploring each side. For the Broncos to cover, this has to be a team that comes out fired up for their home opener. They can’t repeat Monday night. Bo Nix is 14-1 in his last 15 home starts, including the playoffs. The only loss in that stretch was to the aforementioned Jaguars team. Payton will spend the week reminding everyone of that. He’ll remind them that this is their house.
The path to covering is in the run game. Get the run game going, and Nix will have more flexibility in his plays. J.K. Dobbins and RJ Harvey combined for almost nothing of consequence in KC. Now Harvey may be out due to hamstring strain. However, they need to get the ball rolling on the ground. If Denver can stay out of obvious passing downs, Nix won’t have to push the ball into intermediate windows. One red-zone trip that actually finishes, one Jags penalty cluster, and 2.5 points is there.
Denver also has a strong defense. Surtain will look to quiet the passing attack down. The offense has a lot to fix from Monday night’s game, and frankly, so does the defense. However, this is still the Broncos team that finished 14-3 last year.
Game Total: Over/Under 45.5
The public is on the Over in this game. That’s telling to me. Jacksonville can score, sure. However, Denver just put up 10 points against Kansas City. Nix averaged 4.7 yards per attempt, 3.8 air yards per throw, and turned it over multiple times. Ask yourself one question. Does this feel more like the Jags-Browns game, or the Chiefs-Broncos game? In my opinion, it feels more like the Chiefs-Broncos game.
Denver’s pass defense has been really good at home. This won’t be like playing the Browns. This feels like a 24-17 game, and I think the under is going to hit. I’m taking the under 45.5.
Trevor Lawrence Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
Lawrence threw for four touchdowns last week. He had three against the Broncos last year. His current line is over/under 1.5 passing touchdowns. We don’t need him to score four, or even three. He just needs to finish in the red zone against a defense that missed tackles at a historic rate in Kansas City.
Parker Washington already has a touchdown this season and roasted this secondary for 145 yards and a score in December. Jakobi Meyers is a safety valve. Engram looked better in Week 1 than he did last year, and Brian Thomas Jr. still has a lot of talent. Even if Surtain takes one side away, Lawrence has enough options to clear 1.5 without this being a shootout. I’m taking the over.
Jaguars-Broncos Pick
This number feels off to me. Sure, the Broncos are the home team. However, that didn’t affect December’s matchup. Why are they a 2.5-point favorite after generating only 176 yards in the air and being so inefficient on third downs? They also missed a ton of tackles. Jacksonville is 1-0, and even though it was against the Browns, it’s not like this team was a bad team last year.
The market is selling you the altitude, Payton’s home record, and the idea that Monday was a fluke. Maybe it was. But I’m not buying what they’re selling. The Jaguars have covered the last six games, and Lawrence is playing the best football of his career. Meanwhile, Nix is coming off the worst start of his.
Take the points with Jacksonville. If you want a little extra, I also like the moneyline. The Jaguars are going to walk into Mile High and steal this one, leaving the Broncos 0-2 and looking lost.
