With the end of the season just over a month away, now is the best time to get down with the MLB awards market. The data is all laid out in front, but we’re far enough away that there is still some value to be found in the lines. While the NL Cy Young and AL MVP are pretty much all decided, there are plenty of awards that are not.
Come check out what we cooked up for some MLB awards market plays and come tail along.
MLB End of Season Awards Markets – August 22nd
NL MVP Winner?
The NL MVP award has been one of the most hotly contested awards this year. Shohei Ohtani and Pete Crow-Armstrong have been dueling for the spot at the top all season. At first, the pitching prowess of Ohtani had him the driver’s seat. However, the plug was pulled on his season on the bump back in the beginning of July after posting a 4.38 ERA in his last four starts. With his pitching value put in the rearview mirror, this one comes down to simply a battle at the plate, which is a much more even fight.
When comparing their hitting, Ohtani leads in average with Crow-Armstrong ahead in the home run race. While those two are both close, Crow-Armstrong separates himself with the baserunning and the defense. Crow-Armstrong holds a 31-8 advantage in stolen bases and is worth 14 defensive runs saved. That makes him the 11th most valuable defender, while Shohei Ohtani has yet to log a game in the field. That combination, along with Crow-Armstrong being a fresh name in the race, should be enough to clinch the award for him.
Best Bet: Pete Crow-Armstrong (-185)
NL Rookie of the Year Winner?
I’m not even sure why the odds are currently listed the way they are for this award. While JJ Wetherholt has been the favorite for the entire year, the stats clearly lean in favor of Sal Stewart. Stewart leads Wetherholt in batting average (by 0.18), in home runs (by 11), and in RBIs (by 50). In fact, Stewart heading into the weekend, Stewart is tied with Jordan Walker for the lead in runs batted in for the entire major leagues. It’s hard to imagine someone leading the league in RBI, or at least coming close, and not winning a Rookie of the Year award.
In addition to that, the momentum is all in Stewart’s favor. Stewart has had a hit in all but three of the games he’s played in August and slugged .447 in the process. His August total for hits sits at 21 with four dingers. Meanwhile, Wetherholt is hitting .181 in the month and is slugging just .236. Wetherholt would need a huge turnaround in order for this thing to stay in his favor and that’s not something I’m counting on.
Best Bet: Sal Stewart (+145)
AL Cy Young Winner?
The AL Cy Young is another of the awards that has gone back and forth. It’s pretty much narrowed down to Dylan Cease and Cam Schlittler for the hardware. Cease continues to put on pressure with the amount of strikeouts he’s racked up. He currently leads the American League with 201 strikeouts. However, I don’t think that’s enough to stay in front of Cam Schlittler, who is just eight strikeouts behind.
There are two main reasons why the strikeouts alone won’t be enough. The first is that he has the lead in most of the other major categories. He leads in wins, ERA, WHIP and WAR. In addition, the sheer volume for Schlittler should tip the scale in his favor. He’s thrown 21 more innings than Cease and with the Yankees in the hunt, I can see that lead expanding.
Best Bet: Cam Schlittler (-190)
If you’d like even more picks and predictions that you can use the MLB awards market, be sure to check out the Sports Gambling Podcast. The guys are dropping plenty of episodes to make you the smartest guy/gal at the bar.
