It’s that time of year Degen Nation. Preseason football is back, and another National Football League season is getting closer by the day. Now is the time to scout players, monitor trends, and knock the rust off the old gambling muscles. There is no better test of your true Degenerateness than if you are betting preseason football, and thankfully, SGPN is! We’re kicking off our preseason betting coverage by looking at head coach against the spread records and trends in preseason action.
NFL Preseason Betting Trends: Every Head Coach’s Against the Spread Record
Preseason football is a coaching game. Starters sit, and game plans stay vanilla. The coach who treats a Week 2 exhibition like it matters is usually the one who wins it. That makes head coach history one of the sharpest angles for NFL preseason betting. However, there is no strong correlation between regular season and preseason success, so do not look too closely at this for your in-season betting. This is strictly for use in betting the preseason only.
We pulled five years of preseason results, 2021 through 2025, for every coach on an NFL sideline in 2026. Here is who to back, who to fade, and the full record for all 32 head coaches as it currently stands. All of this information is locked and loaded in our models, and our team of Degen handicappers is ready to help you cash in and win big against corporate gambling all preseason long.
The Sports Gambling Podcast has put out free NFL picks since 2011, every preseason game and every regular season week. Get this year’s against-the-spread plays, best bets, and survivor picks on our NFL Picks page.
NFL Preseason Betting: 5 Coaches to Back
When you’re looking at preseason lines and who to bet on, each coach’s against the spread record is one of the most consistent and sticky NFL preseason betting trends. Some guys just want to try harder than others, and having their second and third stringers win meaningless games matters more to football guys. It should be no surprise that guys like Mike Vrabel, Robert Saleh, and Sean Payton are all among the top five in pre-season ATS records.
Here are the top five coaches, ranked by their preseason cover rate over the past five seasons. As with any data or statistical samples, sample size matters, so we noted it where it runs thin for some coaches.
- Mike Macdonald, Seattle (5-1 ATS, 83.3%). The best cover rate in the league, though on a short six-game book.
- Mike Vrabel, New England (7-3-2 ATS, 70.0%). Twelve preseason games of steady covering.
- Robert Saleh, Tennessee (9-4 ATS, 69.2%). He carries a strong Jets preseason record to his new job.
- Sean Payton, Denver (7-4 ATS, 63.6%). A reliable August number over eleven games.
- DeMeco Ryans, Houston (6-4 ATS, 60.0%). Covers three of every five preseason games.
Each of these coaches should be trusted to cover the spread in preseason, in the regular season? Not so much.
5 Coaches to Fade in the Preseason
Some of the guys on this list are a little surprising to see. They are not bad coaches. Liam Coen stands out like a sore thumb especially as he led the Jags to a playoff appearance in 2025. He is the number one example of not using this trend to influence regular season results. With that being said, all of these coaches are good regular season coaches and you would be hard pressed to bet against them consistently in-season. Preseason though? Cannot trust em.
- Liam Coen, Jacksonville (0-3 ATS, 0.0%). He has never covered a preseason game as a head coach.
- Dan Quinn, Washington (1-5 ATS, 16.7%). One cover in six tries.
- Mike McCarthy, Pittsburgh (4-9 ATS, 30.8%). A losing August habit across thirteen games with Green Bay and Dallas.
- Kevin O’Connell, Minnesota (4-8 ATS, 33.3%). Covers a third of the time over twelve games.
- Dan Campbell, Detroit (6-10 ATS, 37.5%). Sixteen preseason games under water.
The worst preseason coaches are not just kind of bad, they are atrocious. All of them, except Dan Campbell stand out with a two to one loss to win ratio. Campbell is only slightly better though, you should still not trust him in the preseason like you do in the regular season. Kneecap biting must only be a regular season skill for Campbell.
No Track Record Yet
Outside of the top and bottom the list, there are six coaches that took their first NFL head job in 2026. As a result the following coaches carry no preseason betting history: Mike LaFleur (Arizona), Jesse Minter (Baltimore), Joe Brady (Buffalo), Todd Monken (Cleveland), Klint Kubiak (Las Vegas), and Jeff Hafley (Miami). A handful of others bring records from previous stops, marked with an asterisk in the table below. It remains to be seen how these new caches will do, but after the Hall of Fame Game, Mike LaFleur may be someone who will find himself on the top of the list.
Every 2026 NFL Head Coach: Preseason SU and ATS record (2021-2025)
Without any further ado, here is the against the spread record for every single NFL coach from 2021 to 2025 in the preseason. Records for this key NFL preseason betting trend are listed alphabetically in the table below and should help you take on corporate gambling during the 2026 preseason!
| Team | Head Coach | SU Record | SU % | ATS Record | ATS % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARZ | Mike LaFleur | 0-0 | N/A | 0-0 | N/A |
| ATL | Kevin Stefanski* | 8-7-1 | 53.3% | 8-8 | 50.0% |
| BAL | Jesse Minter | 0-0 | N/A | 0-0 | N/A |
| BUF | Joe Brady | 0-0 | N/A | 0-0 | N/A |
| CAR | Dave Canales | 1-5 | 16.7% | 2-4 | 33.3% |
| CHI | Ben Johnson | 2-0-1 | 100.0% | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| CIN | Zac Taylor | 3-11-1 | 21.4% | 7-8 | 46.7% |
| CLE | Todd Monken | 0-0 | N/A | 0-0 | N/A |
| DAL | Brian Schottenheimer | 1-2 | 33.3% | 1-2 | 33.3% |
| DEN | Sean Payton | 8-3 | 72.7% | 7-4 | 63.6% |
| DET | Dan Campbell | 6-10 | 37.5% | 6-10 | 37.5% |
| GB | Matt LaFleur | 7-8 | 46.7% | 7-8 | 46.7% |
| HOU | DeMeco Ryans | 7-3 | 70.0% | 6-4 | 60.0% |
| IND | Shane Steichen | 5-4 | 55.6% | 5-4 | 55.6% |
| JAX | Liam Coen | 0-2-1 | 0.0% | 0-3 | 0.0% |
| KC | Andy Reid | 7-8 | 46.7% | 7-8 | 46.7% |
| LAC | Jim Harbaugh | 3-4 | 42.9% | 3-4 | 42.9% |
| LAR | Sean McVay | 5-10 | 33.3% | 9-6 | 60.0% |
| LV | Klint Kubiak | 0-0 | N/A | 0-0 | N/A |
| MIA | Jeff Hafley | 0-0 | N/A | 0-0 | N/A |
| MIN | Kevin O’Connell | 4-8 | 33.3% | 4-8 | 33.3% |
| NE | Mike Vrabel | 8-4 | 66.7% | 7-3-2 | 70.0% |
| NO | Kellen Moore | 0-2-1 | 0.0% | 1-2 | 33.3% |
| NYG | John Harbaugh* | 11-4 | 73.3% | 8-7 | 53.3% |
| NYJ | Aaron Glenn | 1-2 | 33.3% | 1-2 | 33.3% |
| PHI | Nick Sirianni | 5-8-2 | 38.5% | 6-9 | 40.0% |
| PIT | Mike McCarthy* | 4-9 | 30.8% | 4-9 | 30.8% |
| SEA | Mike Macdonald | 3-2-1 | 60.0% | 5-1 | 83.3% |
| SF | Kyle Shanahan | 8-6-1 | 57.1% | 8-6-1 | 57.1% |
| TB | Todd Bowles | 6-6 | 50.0% | 5-7 | 41.7% |
| TEN | Robert Saleh* | 10-2-1 | 83.3% | 9-4 | 69.2% |
| WAS | Dan Quinn | 1-5 | 16.7% | 1-5 | 16.7% |
* Record carried from a previous team: Kevin Stefanski (CLE), John Harbaugh (BAL), Mike McCarthy (GB, DAL), Robert Saleh (NYJ).
A note on reading the table: records cover preseason games only, 2021 through 2025. Coaches who switched teams bring their record with them, and an asterisk marks where it came from. Small samples move fast, so weigh a 2-0 mark differently than a 15-game body of work.
So what are you waiting for? Get on out there and get in on the action this preseason. Make sure to tune in to the Sports Gambling Podcast this preseason and all NFL season long for more betting trends like this.
