Shinnecock Hills played a touch easier during Round 2, but despite slightly more favorable scoring conditions, the field still averaged over par. That alone should tell you everything you need to know about the challenge facing players this week.
Naturally, there has been plenty of criticism directed toward the USGA and the setup. Every U.S. Open seems to generate debate, and this year has been no different. But much of the criticism misses the point entirely.
This is not Oakmont.
It was never going to be Oakmont.
US Open Round 3 Bets
Shinnecock Hills is a completely different golf course that presents a different style of challenge. Oakmont’s defense comes primarily from its architecture and impossible greens. Shinnecock, on the other hand, is heavily dependent on weather conditions—particularly the wind.
And the wind has absolutely shown up this week.
If the USGA had not watered the greens before Thursday’s opening round, there is a legitimate chance that nobody in the field would have broken 80. The history of this venue proves just how quickly conditions can get out of hand. There is a reason Phil Mickelson famously hit a moving ball during the 2018 U.S. Open and why Zach Johnson’s comments about the setup became so memorable.
The margin between challenging and unplayable at Shinnecock is incredibly small.
In my opinion, the USGA has done a very good job this week. The course is holding up beautifully, the scoring is difficult without being unfair, and the weekend promises to provide exactly the type of test that a U.S. Open should.
With the winds expected to remain a major factor, I continue to believe that short-game skill will become increasingly important over the final two rounds.
Players are going to miss greens.
The question is who can recover when they do.
Sahith Theegala Top 10
Sahith Theegala has always been a player who lives and dies with his short game.
Fortunately for him, that is exactly the type of skill set that can thrive at Shinnecock Hills.
Theegala enters the weekend playing some very solid golf, and more importantly, he is currently gaining strokes around the greens. That may not seem flashy compared to some of the ball-striking numbers being posted by the leaders, but it becomes incredibly valuable on a golf course where scrambling is unavoidable.
The ability to turn bogeys into pars over the course of 72 holes can be the difference between a top-10 finish and a missed opportunity.
If Sahith continues to lean on his creativity and touch around the greens, I believe he has a great chance to climb further up the leaderboard over the weekend.
This setup rewards his greatest strength, and that is exactly the type of profile I want to back.
Aaron Rai Top 10
Nobody would be surprised if the defending PGA Champion followed up his recent major success with another top-10 finish.
Aaron Rai put together an excellent second round and worked himself right back into contention heading into the weekend.
What stands out most about Rai is how perfectly his game fits the current conditions.
He is one of the most accurate drivers in professional golf and should continue to play from the fairway at an extremely high rate. Around Shinnecock, that is a massive advantage.
Beyond that, Rai’s ability to flight the golf ball and control trajectory is tailor-made for windy conditions. His background and comfort in links-style golf have always been strengths, and those skills become increasingly valuable when the wind begins to blow.
Look for Rai to continue the strong play on Saturday and remain firmly in the mix for another major championship top 10.
