U.S. Open Preview and Picks: Surviving Shinnecock Hills
It is hard to believe that we are already at the third major championship of the season. It always seems like we spend months building toward major season, only for it to fly by in the blink of an eye.
This week, the golf world heads back to one of the most iconic venues in the United States: Shinnecock Hills Golf Club.
The par-70 layout will stretch to approximately 7,400 yards over the course of the championship and promises to provide one of the sternest tests of golf that players will face all season. Major championships are designed to identify the best all-around players in the world, and Shinnecock does exactly that.
2026 U.S. Open Preview and Picks: Surviving Shinnecock Hills
A True U.S. Open Test
It is not often that we enter a tournament expecting an over-par winning score, but that may very well be the case this week.
Brooks Koepka is the defending champion at Shinnecock Hills, having conquered the course back in 2018 with a winning total of 1-over par across 72 holes. That score alone tells you everything you need to know about the challenge that awaits this field.
Shinnecock is difficult under normal circumstances, but this year’s weather forecast only adds another layer of complexity. Winds are expected to howl throughout the week, amplifying the challenge of an already demanding golf course.
Players will be forced to think their way around the property, controlling trajectory and accepting that bogeys will inevitably happen.
The Statistical Profile
From a handicapping perspective, two areas stand out this week:
- Driving distance
- Short game
That combination may seem unusual, but these are unusual conditions.
Outside of J.J. Spaun’s surprise U.S. Open victory last season, recent champions have largely been among the longest hitters in the game. More importantly, they have been elite total drivers of the golf ball.
Shinnecock’s driving corridors are not necessarily narrow, but the penalty for missing them is severe. The rough is punishing, and recovering from poor positions becomes increasingly difficult when combined with heavy winds.
Because of that, I believe the longer hitters will still have opportunities to be aggressive off the tee.
The short game component is equally important.
Similar to Pinehurst, no matter how well players strike their irons, holding these plateaued and undulating greens consistently will be a major challenge. Players are going to miss greens. The ability to recover and save pars around Shinnecock will ultimately determine who remains in contention.
The Northeast Advantage
Two players immediately stand out this week: Cameron Young and Chris Gotterup.
Both possess elite driving distance and excellent short-game ability. More importantly, both have shown an affinity for difficult, wind-affected conditions.
These are about as close to Open Championship conditions as we see in the United States.
Gotterup finished third at last year’s Open Championship after winning the Scottish Open the week before. Young owns a runner-up finish at The Open Championship and has repeatedly demonstrated his ability to handle links-style setups.
Both players have also enjoyed successful 2026 campaigns and have worked their way into the winner’s circle.
From a tee-to-green perspective, they profile as two of the strongest fits in the field. I would be surprised if both do not produce excellent ball-striking performances this week.
The concern, as always, lies on the greens. Both players have historically preferred Bermuda putting surfaces, and Shinnecock presents a completely different challenge.
Still, there is something to be said for feeling comfortable in your surroundings.
Young was born and raised in New York, while Gotterup grew up just a few hours away along the Jersey Shore. Few players in this field should feel more at home.
I am not entirely convinced either possesses the winning form required to lift the trophy on Sunday evening, but a top-10 finish from one of these two feels well within reach.
The Picks
Cameron Young Top 10 (+180)
Young’s combination of distance, creativity, and comfort in difficult conditions makes him an excellent fit for Shinnecock Hills.
Chris Gotterup Top 10 (+380)
Gotterup has already proven he can thrive in windy, major-style setups. His power and short game should translate beautifully this week.
