NASCAR heads to the Irish Hills of Michigan this weekend for the FireKeepers Casino 400 at Michigan International Speedway. One of the fastest tracks on NASCAR’s circuit, this 2-mile D-shaped oval is set to bring some exciting racing, and hopefully cash some bets! Let’s dive in and take a look at this week’s NASCAR picks, odds, and best bets for the FireKeepers Casino 400 at Michigan International Speedway.
Denny Hamlin was victorious last season at Michigan, and he also picked up the win last weekend at Nashville Superspeedway. A win this weekend would tie him on the all-time Cup Series wins list with Kyle Busch. To no surprise, Hamlin is the odds-on favorite to repeat this week. Austin Hill remains in the #33 car this weekend.
Odds to Win FireKeepers Casino 400
Denny Hamlin +450
Christopher Bell +600
Tyler Reddick +700
Kyle Larson +700
Ryan Blaney +1000
Chase Briscoe +1200
Ty Gibbs +1200
William Byron +1400
Chris Buscher +1400
Chase Elliott +1400
Carson Hocevar +2000
Shane Van Gisbergen +2000
Bubba Wallace +2500
Joey Logano +2500
Ross Chastain +2800
Brad Keselowski +4000
Austin Cindric +6500
Erik Jones +6500
Daniel Suarez +6500
Alex Bowman +7000
Ryan Preece +9000
Zane Smith +10000
Michael McDowell +13000
Austin Dillon +15000
Connor Zilisch +15000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr +15000
Josh Berry +20000
AJ Allmendinger +20000
Riley Herbst +20000
Austin Hill +25000
John Hunter Nemechek +30000
Todd Gilliland +30000
Noah Gragson +40000
Ty Dillon +50000
Cole Custer +50000
Cody Ware +100000
Chad Finchum +100000
NASCAR Picks, Odds, and Best Bets: FireKeepers Casino 400 at Michigan International Speedway
Tyler Reddick Over Kyle Larson (-130)
When you think of Michigan, Kyle Larson often comes to mind. Three wins in a row in the Chip Ganassi #42 car were impressive stuff. But it’s not 2017 anymore. In the NextGen era, including Reddick’s 2022 season in the #8 car, Reddick leads Larson in true performance rank on Win The Race, and he’s run more laps in the top three. Reddick won here in 2024, and when you compare the 2026 seasons, Reddick is dominating Larson.
Over on Win The Race, Reddick leads all drivers in wins, average starting position, average finish, driver rating, true performance rank, fastest lap %, top three, top five, and top 10 finishes. He’s eight spots higher than Larson in speed ranking. When you filter by 1.5-mile tracks we’ve been to this year, he leads Larson in average finish by 5.25 positions, average running position, driver rating, true performance, and speed ranking. Using the head-to-head tool at Win The Race, Reddick wins the head-to-head matchup 61% of the time in their 200k simulations, making him fair value at -156.
Best drivers since the Easter Break via average finish (Last six races) …
1) Reddick – 5.3
2) Hamlin – 8.2
3) Suaerz – 10.5
4) Buescher – 12.0
5) Hocevar – 13.7
6) Gibbs – 14.8
7) Blaney – 15.2
8) Elliott – 16.0
9) Preece / Cindric / Briscoe – 16.3— Ryan (@ifantasyrace) May 29, 2026
Chris Buescher Top 10 (-105)
Someone who loves this track and has done well on the comparable 1.5-mile tracks this season is Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing’s Chris Buescher. The pilot of the #17 car has finished in the top 10 at Michigan in three straight races. Buescher has had his ups and downs this year, but on the intermediate tracks, it’s been almost all ups. Outside of a 30th-place finish at Charlotte, he’s recorded finishes of fifth at Texas, 10th at Kansas, sixth at Las Vegas, and ninth at Darlington. Going back to my data friends at Win The Race, they have Buescher finishing inside of the top 10 70.8% of the time. Putting his fair market value at -242. It’s insane DraftKings is laying this at -105 for us!
BACK-TO-BACK! REPOST TO CONGRATULATE CHRIS BUESCHER ON HIS MONDAY WIN AT MICHIGAN. pic.twitter.com/uN2zUEBlmk
— FOX: NASCAR (@NASCARONFOX) August 7, 2023
Tyler Reddick to Win (+700)
Tyler Reddick was the first driver I circled when I flipped my calendar to Michigan this week. I wanted to go all in on the driver of Michael Jordan’s #45 car, and that’s what I’m doing. The Toyotas clearly have the best cars right now, especially when we open up the speed on these big tracks. Reddick won two years ago, and Hamlin won in a Toyota here last year. Tyler didn’t have the fastest car at Kansas, but put himself in position late to win, and that’s what he did. This track suits his style particularly well, driving all out and on edge.
TYLER REDDICK WINS IN MICHIGAN! #NASCAR pic.twitter.com/2KpBIn3h5w
— FOX: NASCAR (@NASCARONFOX) August 19, 2024
Luckily for me, it’s three-for-three with agreement from Win The Race’s data to back up my best bets this week. In their 200k simulations, only Denny Hamlin wins this race more times than Tyler Reddick, who wins it 19.2% of the time, leaving his fair market value at +420. Sure makes 7/1 feel like a steal. He’s won five times this season already. What’s stopping him from making it six?
Fueled by WIN THE RACE‘s Professional NASCAR Strategy Platform
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