Everything is bigger in Texas! This week, that’s where you’ll find all three of NASCAR’s top series. It’s not their only trip to the Lone Star State, but it is the only visit to Texas Motor Speedway. It is the third time this year the Cup Series has visited a 1.5-mile track, giving us a good baseline for current form. Let’s take a look at this week’s NASCAR picks, odds, and best bets for the Würth 400 at Texas Motor Speedway.
Carson Hocevar picked up his first career win last weekend at Talladega in a huge day for this article, which called him out at 25/1! For betting on Texas this week, be careful just looking at last year’s results. The race went to overtime, and the results don’t tell the whole story of who was good in the race.
Odds to Win Würth 400
Denny Hamlin +500
Tyler Reddick +600
Kyle Larson +650
Ryan Blaney +900
Christopher Bell +1000
William Byron +1100
Chase Elliott +1400
Chase Briscoe +1400
Carson Hocevar +1600
Bubba Wallace +1800
Ty Gibbs +1900
Chris Buescher +2200
Joey Logano +2700
Brad Keselowski +3000
Ross Chastain +4000
Ryan Preece +5000
Austin Cindric +5000
Alex Bowman +5000
Daniel Suarez +6000
Corey Heim +7000
Kyle Busch +8000
Erik Jones +10000
Josh Berry +10000
Michael McDowell +10000
Zane Smith +12500
Austin Dillon +12500
Ricky Stenhouse Jr +17500
Connor Zilisch +20000
AJ Allmendinger +20000
Noah Gragson +25000
John Hunter Nemechek +25000
Riley Herbst +25000
Shane Van Gisbergen +25000
Todd Gilliland +30000
Chad Finchum +50000
Ty Dillon +50000
Cole Custer +50000
Cody Ware +50000
NASCAR Picks, Odds, and Best Bets: Würth 400 at Texas Motor Speedway
Daniel Suarez Over Ross Chastain (+115)
I couldn’t race to the window fast enough to place this bet. This matchup is set simply based on name recognition and Chastain’s history at Texas. Makes it easy for us to swoop in and bet on the plus money side of things. Ross Chastain has been good here at Texas. With two second-place finishes in the last three races. Granted, that was accompanied by a 32nd place finish, and he wasn’t running top 10 a majority of last year before overtime. Lately, Trackhouse has been called “Tractorhouse,” “Trashouse,” and a few other names because they haven’t looked good. Outside of drafting tracks, Chastain hasn’t finished better than 16th all season. He ran 26th at the 1.5-mile Kansas Speedway.
Suarez, on the other hand, has four finishes all inside of the top 12 in the NextGen era at Texas, splitting head-to-head matchups with Chastain. He’s seemingly gotten the better deal by leaving Trackhouse to head to Spire Motorsports, who have shown a ton of speed. Looking at intermediates, Suarez has gotten the better of Chastain at Kansas and Darlington, and finished one spot behind in Vegas. Suarez has won the head-to-head in four of the last five races and has all the momentum. Add in that fact he’s at a better price, I love this matchup!
Ty Gibbs Top 10 (-110)
Sometimes I feel like the bookmakers don’t actually watch or pay attention to the races. Personally, I’m happy for it. Ty Gibbs history at Texas is spotty. There’s no two ways about it. But that was the old Ty. The new Ty, the 2026 version, the race winner version. It’s a brand new Ty Gibbs. Outside of drafting tracks with their chaos, Gibbs has yet to finish outside of the top 10 in a single race this season. He has the speed, the team, the car, and the hottest manufacturer right now. Combine all that with his new confidence and swagger. At this price, Ty Gibbs is an absolute steal.
Denny Hamlin to Win (+500)
He’s the chalky favorite this week, but I don’t think you can leave Denny Hamlin off your card at Texas. He’s clearly been one of, if not the fastest, cars this season. Hamlin has dominated both comparison tracks. Leading 134 laps at Las Vegas and winning. He followed it up by leading 131 laps at Kansas and was just over a lap away from winning before the late caution put him in victory lane as a car owner only.
The results in Texas for Hamlin are misleading. Last year, he blew a motor. In 2024, he was on his way to a win before late race shenanigans once again cost him a potential victory and left him with a poor finish. He’s been the guy on the 1.5’s this year, and there is no reason to think that changes now. In wintherace.info’s 200 thousand simulations, Hamlin wins this race 17.6% of the time, leading all drivers and putting his fair market odds at +468.
Fueled by WIN THE RACE‘s Professional NASCAR Strategy Platform
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