And then there were only four left. The college hoops season is down to its Final Four teams in the NCAA tournament. Fewer games to bet on just means we’ll have to make more bets. You can stick with the moneylines, point spreads, and game totals, but we’re digging a little deeper to find action on Saturday’s games. We’ve gone through the metrics, reviewed the available lines, and found a few extra college basketball picks and props that you’ll want to lock up. Let’s get into it.
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2026 NCAA Tournament: Final Four Props Preview, Predictions, and Best Bets
Illinois (3) at UConn (2)
Date and Start Time: April 4, 6:09 PM EST
These two teams actually met all the way back in November. UConn won by 13 and scored 74 points in that matchup. The Huskies average 77.1 points per game this year and have scored at least 70 points in 28 out of 38 games played. UConn has also gone higher than 69.5 in three out of four tournament games.
Illinois only averages 65.5 points per game allowed. However, they’ve allowed 70 points in 16 out of 36 games played. The only team to hit 70 points against the Fighting Illini in the NCAA tournament was Penn, and they scored exactly 70 points. However, they’ve played Iowa, Houston, and VCU in their three other games played. Of the three, only VCU has what could be described as a high-powered offense, but the Rams clearly struggled with Illinois’ size. UConn isn’t as big as the Fighting Illini, but they have power conference athletes and bigs that have faced tall, athletic teams this year and shown they could score. Let’s lock up UConn to do enough to go higher than 69.5 points in this matchup.
Our player prop piggybacks off the UConn team total. UConn big man Alex Karaban scored 12 points in the first matchup against Illinois in November. He comes into this game averaging 13.2 points per game. There’s a non-zero chance that Karaban plays close to 40 minutes in this game, and he should compile his way to at least 14 points.
Karaban shoots over 80% from the free-throw line and has sunk at least three three-pointers in three of the four tournament games he’s played in this year. He went 2-for-4 against Illinois from deep back in November. He also tends to stay out of foul trouble. UConn lets Tarris Reed and Jayden Ross pick up fouls in the post. Karaban usually stays out of the fray and sinks jumpers. Lock up Alex Karaban to score at least 14 points in what could be his final game in a UConn uniform.
Best Team Prop: UConn Over 69.5 Total Points
Best Player Prop: Alex Karaban Over 13.5 Points
Michigan (1) at Arizona (1)
Date and Start Time: April 4, 8:49 PM EST
SGPN is known for first-half unders, but we usually only bet all of them in the first round. The first half under may seem counterintuitive here, but it’s the right play.
First, the situation. These teams are playing in the late game on national television in a football stadium. These teams have played in big spots this year, but this is the biggest game that either team has played in, and they’ve had almost six days off since they last played. Also, these football stadiums tend to have odd sight lines and lighting.
On the metrics side, Michigan averages 43.9 points per game in the first half, while Arizona allows only 33.0. Arizona averages 42.0 points per game in the first half, but Michigan only allows 34.0 points per game in the first half. If both teams play to their averages, that’s roughly 76 first-half points between the two teams. If that’s the case, this line is about three points too low. It’s low because the books know that it’s a goofy spot with the two best defensive teams in the nation. Neither team will want this game to get away from them early, so we could see tougher looks and a slower pace. Lock up the first half under.
We’re going contrarian on our player prop for this matchup. Arizona guard Brayden Burries has drained at least three three-pointers in three out of four tournament games. Burries also shoots over 40% from deep, and his workload has increased in the past month. He’s likely to play more than 35 minutes, and he’s not afraid to let fly from beyond the arc.
Michigan is awesome defensively, but they are susceptible on the perimeter, and Fletcher Loyer went 3-for-4 in the Big Ten championship game. They’ve given up at least three three-pointers to a player in all four NCAA tournament games. Burries will have the green light and should hit at least three from deep if Arizona is going to hang with the Wolverines. Lock up Brayden Burries to go over 2.5 made three-pointers.
Best Team Prop: 1st Half Total Under 73.5
Best Player Prop: Brayden Burries Over 2.5 Made 3’s
The College Basketball Experience
For more analysis of every college basketball game in the 2025-26 season, tune in to The College Basketball Experience. Colby Dant, Moneyline Mac, and Noah Bieniek talk about each game on the entire slate. Listen for input on ATS and moneyline college basketball picks every night!
