With the NFL season quickly approaching, we will soon see a bunch of college athletes try to start their careers on the professional level. However, which of these guys will succeed the most is yet to be seen. Two of them will be named the NFL Rookie of the Year. One on offense and one on defense. Let’s look at the odds, and who I think is the best bet for this year’s rookie class!
Offensive NFL Rookie Of The Year
Ashton Jeanty (+275)
The current offensive NFL rookie of the year favorite is Ashton Jeanty. The former Boise State Bronco was selected in the sixth round by the Las Vegas Raiders. The Raiders’ new head coach, Pete Carroll, is notorious for running the ball early and often, and Jeanty fits right into his plan.
Jeanty finished his collegiate career with 4,769 rushing yards, 50 rushing touchdowns, 862 receiving yards, and six receiving touchdowns. However, of his rushing yards, 2,601 yards came last year, with 29 touchdowns. It was a breakout season for Jeanty, and he earned his spot in the top ten draft picks.
The only downfall for Jeanty is that he’s carried the ball 594 times over the last two years, including 374 last year. That’s a lot of mileage to put on the legs of any back in a season. For comparison, only six running backs had over 300 carries last year. Saquon Barkley led the list with 345.
Jeanty averaged seven yards a carry last year. Whether he can keep that pace in the NFL will have to be seen. However, he’s the favorite to win for a reason. He’s the right back in the right offense and should be leaned on. It’ll be up to Carroll and Geno Smith to make sure the defense doesn’t have to solely focus on Jeanty.
Cam Ward (+350)
Four of the last six NFL offensive rookie of the year awards have been quarterbacks. It’s a recent trend, as only 12 quarterbacks have won rookie of the year since 1967. The top quarterback candidate to win this year is the number one pick, Cam Ward.
Ward is probably the least talked-about number one-picked quarterback that we’ve seen in a long time. So much news swirled around Shedeur Sanders and his slide that it seems the media almost glossed over Ward. He was selected by the Tennessee Titans, who have officially given up on Will Levis.
Ward is the only quarterback with a clear path to start all year, which, to me, automatically makes him the favorite. It’s easier to define a quarterback’s success in the NFL. It may be unfortunate, but the proof is there in recent history. With C.J. Stroud winning over Puka Nacua and Jayden Daniels winning over Brock Bowers. Voters love a good quarterback story.
Ward threw for 4,313 yards and 39 touchdowns last year for Miami. Prior to that, he had two seasons over 3,000 yards at Washington State. 2021 was his only season with double-digit interceptions. The only setback to Ward is his weapons. He has veterans Calvin Ridley and Tyler Lockett. Beyond that, the Titans will hope that rookies Chimere Dike, Xavier Restrepo, and Elic Ayomanor can help.
However, expectations are low in Tennessee. Their win total is currently only 5.5. If Ward can lead them to even a seven or eight-win season and put up good stats, he’ll be a lock for the NFL rookie of the year.
Omarian Hampton (+850)
Next on the list is Omarian Hampton. The North Carolina product is coming off back-to-back seasons of over 1500 rushing yards. He also ran for over 15 touchdowns in each. Hampton can catch out of the backfield as well, having 38 receptions for 373 yards last year.
Hampton has the speed and vision to take a small screen to the house. He also has a really good landing spot on the Chargers. Coach Jim Harbaugh likes to call a run-heavy offense, which will benefit Hampton. He’ll be looking to get more out of his new running backs after not having a 1,000-yard back last year. J.K. Dobbins led the team with 905 yards.
Dobbins is no longer part of the Chargers, which is good for Hampton. However, they did bring in former Pittsburgh Steelers running back Najee Harris. In four years with the Steelers, Harris went over 1,000 yards in all four seasons. His presence will affect how many carries Hampton gets. This will make it difficult for Hampton to put up enough stats to get the top votes for NFL Rookie of the Year.
Other Candidates
There are a few other candidates among the NFL offensive rookie of the year players. While they would be a good payout, I just don’t see a clear path for them to get crowned. Travis Hunter is +1000. It’s hard to trust what impact he’ll have until we see exactly how his offensive vs. defensive snaps are broken down. While he wants to continue to play 100% of all snaps like he did in college, I don’t think it’s sustainable in the NFL. I would expect him to play more defense than offense.
Tyler Shough is another +1000 rookie of the year candidate. However, I’m not even sure he’ll get the start to begin the season. Spencer Rattler is familiar with the team, and while Kellen Moore brings in a new regime, early reports are leaning Rattler’s way. While that may not last all season, it would put Shough behind in the running.
Another player is Tet McMillan, the rookie wide receiver for the Panthers. The Panthers obviously loved McMillan, drafting him in the first round. However, they do have a lot of receiving options, including last year’s rookie Xavier Legette and veteran Adam Thielen. You also have to wonder if Bryce Young can support enough wide receivers to help McMillan get stats worthy of OROY.
The best bet, in my opinion, is Cam Ward. +350 may not be the biggest payout. However, it feels like the one that’s most of a lock. You could always throw some down on both Jeanty and Ward, and still come out with a profit.
Defensive NFL Rookie Of The Year
AbDul Carter (+250)
The NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year award is a whole other beast. It’s harder to see a full impact from defensive players, even if they are wreaking havoc on the field. Take Maxx Crosby, for example. He’s been a nightmare for opposing offenses. However, his impact on the field is hard to measure if you look at the Raiders’ overall success.
This year’s favorite as of right now is Abdul Carter. He’ll likely play an edge rusher/linebacker hybrid role for the New York Giants. It’s easy to see why he’s the favorite. Outside of his talent, he joins a defense that already has guys like Brian Burns, Dexter Lawrence, and Bobby Okereke wreaking havoc. This’ll open one more concern for offenses, and more potential impact for Carter on the field.
Carter finished last year at Penn State with 12 sacks and two forced fumbles. He also had four pass deflections. I am a fan of Carter, and I think he’ll make this Giants defense better. However, I also have concerns that there are so many playmakers on the defense, the wealth of sacks and big plays will be shared.
Jalon Walker (+750)
The next player in the NFL defensive rookie of the year odds is Jalon Walker. Walker was drafted by the Falcons to help give them a pass rush that’s worth talking about. Falcons have their future quarterback in Michael Penix. Now they just need a supporting defense.
Walker played in all fifteen games at Georgia in his true freshman season in 2022. Which is impressive given how good the Georgia defense is and how well they recruit. Last season, Walker had 11 tackles for losses, 6.5 sacks, two fumble recoveries, and two pass deflections.
Abdul Carter is a much better player than Jalon Walker. However, Walker has a better opportunity to win the rookie of the year award, in my opinion. The reasoning is that the Falcons don’t have a lot of impact players on defense. Therefore, it should be easier for Walker to stand out.
However, a lot of his stats in his three years at Georgia didn’t reflect the player he was. If you looked at his total of 89 tackles, 19 tackles for loss, and 12.5 sacks, you wouldn’t think of a player who is being drafted in the first round. He’s a good leader and a good player. However, I’m not sold on the impact he makes being one who wins awards right away.
Mason Graham +900
Another first-round draft pick is defensive tackle Mason Graham. The last player to win the Defensive Rookie of the Year award from the defensive tackle position was Sheldon Richardson, back in 2013. That year, Richardson had 12 tackles for loss, eight quarterback hits, and 78 combined tackles. He also had one forced fumble and a pass deflection.
Those aren’t impossible numbers to mimic. Graham should also be on the field often if the Browns’ offense isn’t efficient like last year. The more a defender is on the field, the more opportunity he has to both pad stats and show people what he’s made of.
It’s hard to see Graham making that kind of impact, though. I have my doubts about placing money on him. Despite the payout of +900 being a good one, I don’t believe it’ll be a profitable one.
Mykel Williams (+1000)
You may be thinking I don’t like any of the defensive players. While that’s not true, it’s just harder to find success and value in some of the favorites. Will Abdul Carter win it? He has the best odds. However, he also has a lot of competition on his own team. Not to mention the competition against other players in the league.
That brings me to Mykel Williams, the newest defensive lineman for the San Francisco 49ers. Another player whose stats didn’t jump off the page, with only five sacks and 21 tackles last year. However, now he joins a 49ers team that is looking for a playmaker.
When Joey Bosa is healthy, Mykel Williams will play opposite him. With the caliber of player Bosa is, this should give Williams a lot of one-on-one opportunities. Defensive coordinator Robert Saleh gets the most out of his players. I know they brought in Bryce Huff as well, however, I still think Williams will get solid playing time. Abdul Carter and Mykel Williams are my two picks when it comes to the NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year.
Travis Hunter (+1100)
Mentioning Hutner again, as he’s got +1100 odds to win Defensive Rookie of the Year as well. I already know some bettors have thought it was cute to parlay him winning both. I just don’t see him making enough impact to win either. His offensive-defensive split isn’t going to be the same as it was in college.
This will lead to less time on any given side of the field, which will lead to fewer impact plays. Save your money.
