Every NFL season brings a familiar MVP debate, often centered around a shortlist of elite quarterbacks. But betting markets and sharp fans know the real intrigue lies a tier lower, where longshots live.
These are the names buried deeper in the odds board, outside the +3,000 mark, but not outside the conversation. With the right mix of health, momentum, and team trajectory, they can deliver breakout seasons that rewrite expectations.
This year’s longshot field features former Pro Bowlers, gifted rookies, and comeback stories all vying for recognition. They aren’t the obvious picks, and that’s the point, they offer rare upside with the tools to surprise.
Jared Goff Has the Setup to Surprise
Few quarterbacks are as stable and sharp as Jared Goff right now. In 2024, he produced career-best numbers across multiple categories: 4,629 passing yards, 37 touchdowns, and a passer rating near the top of the league. Contributing to his stellar performance is the fact that he operated behind one of the NFL’s most disciplined offensive lines and under a coaching staff that let him play to his strengths.
Detroit’s offense is balanced, explosive, and built around quick decisions and controlled tempo. Goff excels in rhythm. He’s not flashy, but he’s ruthlessly efficient when the scheme fits. With continuity in both coordinator and personnel, another big season feels likely. If the Lions start hot and finish among the NFC’s best, Goff could move from safe veteran to MVP contender quickly.
Matthew Stafford Remains a Threat
Matthew Stafford continues to remind the league he’s far from done. In 2024, he passed for over 3,700 yards and led the Rams to the postseason courtesy of a string of high-pressure wins. At age 37, he still delivers deep strikes with ease and showcases the composure expected from a former Super Bowl champion.
The Rams have quietly built a roster around him again. An emerging ground game, paired with receivers like Puka Nacua and a reinforced offensive line, gives Stafford time and targets. While durability is always a question, the arm talent is still there. If Los Angeles puts together a 10+ win season and Stafford posts shoot-the-lights-out numbers, voters won’t ignore a proven winner performing at a high level again.
Bo Nix Already Has Command
Bo Nix played through pain, pressure, and skepticism in 2024, and still delivered a standout rookie season. He threw for over 3,700 yards, added nearly 30 touchdowns, and rushed for over 400 more. Even more impressively, he did it with three fractures in his back during the final stretch of the year.
Now fully healthy and entering his second season with the Broncos, Nix has everything trending up. The coaching staff trusts him to deliver. His upside isn’t just drawing attention from analysts, it’s also generating early buzz in NFL betting online, where bettors seek rising quarterbacks capable of outperforming expectations. With better protection and more vertical options, Nix could become one of the most impactful second-year players in the league.
Dak Prescott Is Still a Game-Changer
Dak Prescott had his 2024 campaign cut short by a hamstring injury, but when healthy, he remained a strong leader and capable producer. Before the injury, he tallied nearly 2,000 yards and threw 11 touchdowns in just eight games. His accuracy dipped, but he showed flashes of his usual command and timing, especially in the red zone.
Entering 2025, Prescott is fully healthy and reportedly in the best shape of his career. The Cowboys have undergone offensive shifts, but the core weapons remain. If he starts fast and keeps turnovers down, he has both the market size and historical production to push into the MVP conversation. A healthy season combined with double-digit wins puts him squarely back in the spotlight.
Caleb Williams Could Make the Leap
Rookie years are never easy, but Caleb Williams handled the spotlight with calm and control. He finished his first season with over 3,500 yards, 20 passing touchdowns, and only six interceptions, respectable numbers for a Chicago Bears team still building its identity. His poise, pocket awareness, and creative playmaking often flashed, even when the team’s overall performance didn’t match his individual promise.
Now entering Year 2, Williams has improved protection, more pass-catching weapons, and a better grasp of NFL speed. He’s been a regular subject in the latest NFL news as analysts track how quickly he’s adjusting to the league.
The Bears are designing the offense around his strengths, rolling pockets, tempo passing, and occasional quarterback runs. If Chicago becomes a playoff-caliber team and Williams continues to evolve into the dynamic player scouts projected, he could vault into the MVP picture.
Betting Tips for NFL MVP Longshots
Longshot MVP bets require a different mindset than picking favorites. These wagers live in the margins, built on potential, timing, and shifting narratives.
Prioritize Quarterbacks in Stable Systems
Voters rarely reward chaos. Longshots on teams with returning head coaches, offensive coordinators, and familiar weapons have a better chance of starting fast. That early momentum matters, especially if it creates a “breakout” narrative by midseason. Players like Jared Goff benefit from this kind of continuity, making them more attractive options than those still adjusting to new playbooks.
Look Beyond Pure Stats
MVP isn’t always a numbers game. Voters are swayed by storylines: comeback arcs, rookie phenoms, or late-season heroics. Bo Nix playing through a fractured back while leading Denver to competitiveness turned heads. Sometimes, 4,000 yards in a tough division means more than 4,800 in a high-scoring offense. Context matters as much as totals.
Don’t Ignore Schedule and Win Totals
No MVP comes from a six-win team. Look closely at the first eight weeks of the season. Is the schedule favorable? Does the team have a shot at 11 or more wins? Players like Dak Prescott need both individual success and team momentum to climb the board. A good opening stretch against beatable defenses can fuel a quick rise.
This Group Can Shift the Narrative
Each of these longshots enters the 2025 season with different challenges but a common thread, proven or emerging talent paired with the right team context. Whether it’s a veteran chasing one more shot or a young star rising quickly, the MVP race isn’t closed after the first five names. It rarely is.
While most conversations will center on familiar faces, sharp fans, and analysts know that breakout years can come from anywhere. These five quarterbacks aren’t just depth chart staples, they’re one great stretch away from owning the narrative.
