Some people like to sweat out a bet for 9 hard innings – others like immediate satisfaction. Count us as being in the latter, which is why we like to get down with MLB NRFI and YRFI picks. And we’ve decided to pass that knowledge on to you with our NRFI bets for July 3.
Of course, there are plenty out there taking blind guesses at this stuff. It’s easy to pick the best-hitting team or look at what happened in the last game. However, we spent the time pouring through the analytics to make sure that we give you the best odds to stay in the green on these NRFI and YRFI props for July 3. Come check out what we have cooked up for this slate of games.
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MLB NRFI and YRFI Picks – July 3
Los angeles Angels vs. Atlanta Braves
First Pitch – 7:15 pm EST
Truist Park – Atlanta, GA
Broadcast –MLB TV
The top of the first might be the biggest sweat we have in either of our Thursday NRFI plays. The Braves send out Bryce Elder to the mound and he’s coming off the worst outing of his life. He allowed 10 runs, nine of which were earned against the Phillies. However, it’s not like the Angels have had all that much firepower as of late. They’ve scored just 11 runs over their last three games (3.67 per game), and only managed to put up a pair against a 20-year old rookie last game. Add in that they are seeing a huge uptick in their strikeouts and Elder should have things handled.
The Braves busted out of a big slump with eight runs on Wednesday. However, the vast majority of that came in a seven-run 6th inning. If you ignore that one inning, they have just two total runs in their last 25 innings. Jose Soriano should be able to bring their bats back to their quiet state. He’s carrying at 3.99 ERA and has been mostly sharp lately. While the Nationals did hit him around last start, his prior three starts had been near flawless. That stretch saw him go 20.2 innings with just two earned runs and 28 strikeouts.
NRFI/YRFI Bet for July 3: No (-105)
Kansas City Royals vs. Seattle Mariners
First Pitch – 10:10 pm EST
T-Mobile Park – Seattle, WA
Broadcast –MLB TV
While our first NRFI selection is a game where we’re looking for pitchers to have bouncebacks, this game will need no such thing. This matchup is definitely the best pitching matchup you’ll see on the day and perhaps the best you’ll see all week.
Hitting the mound first is Bryan Woo, who has been anchoring down this Seattle rotation. He has a 2.93 ERA and has been putting up much better strikeout numbers than at any point during his career. He has back-to-back nine strikeout games – only throwing 6.0 innings in both of those contests. Now he’ll face the Royals who rank dead last in runs scored in MLB.
The bottom half of the inning sees a pitcher with an even lower ERA. Seth Lugo gets the ball for the Royals. He’s allowed just two earned runs in his last three starts (18.0 innings). He’s also fanned 24 in that span, which brings him up to 76 on the season. The Mariners have been in the middle of the pack in terms of run scoring this year, which makes me feel that Lugo can get us at least a clean frame.
NRFI/YRFI Bet for July 3: No (-150)
If you’d like even more info to help make your NRFI and YRFI picks for July 3, check out the MLB Gambling Podcast. They’re dropping episodes five days a week to make you the smartest guy/gal at the bar with their MLB picks today.
