Another major is here, the PGA season keeps running along, and the profits keep stacking higher. Why would you roll with anyone else for your US Open picks, predictions, analysis, and more? SGPN dives deep into the rough, something that no one else is ready to do here at Oakmont. So see who to tail and who to bet on to win big as the pros whack and hack all weekend long.
After Walking Oakmont, One Thing Is Clear: It’s a Beast
After three long days on the grounds at Oakmont, I can confidently say—it’s exactly as advertised. This course is relentless. Long, punishing holes. Thick, penal rough. Glassy greens. And no breathers. Even the so-called “easy” holes would be nightmares on a normal PGA Tour track. If you’re betting this week, the key to survival—and success—is one word: patience.
The Formula to Win at Oakmont: Bomb & Scramble
We’ll keep this simple: the winner will be one of the best scramblers among the bombers. I know that sounds contradictory—but hear me out.
• If you don’t have elite distance, you’re out. The early rain has made this already long course even longer.
• But even the bombers won’t consistently hit fairways. That rough? It’s historic.
• So, the bombers who can find some fairways and scramble like demons are the ones who can separate.
Forget short hitters this week. They simply won’t be able to hold greens with long irons often enough. The missed fairway penalty here may go down as the worst in major championship history.
Target Elite Wedge Players and Dogs
The deeper I got into the week, the more I leaned into elite wedge players—especially those with grit. The script here is brutal: guys will miss fairways, gouge it out, and be left with 80–120 yard up-and-downs. It’s less about how close you can drive it, and more about how often you can convert those par saves.
So my lean is this:
• Bombers with elite short game, OR
• Alpha ball strikers who can hold greens at a higher rate with mid-to-long irons.
U.S. Open Picks to Watch
Rory McIlroy (+1800 Outright)
This could be the moment Rory steps further into the legacy tier. Oakmont sets up beautifully for him—one of the few who can keep up off the tee and scramble when needed.
Driving? As good as it gets.
Wedges? Quietly improved in 2025.
Mental game? Seems locked in after the Masters letdown.
He was striping it in the practice rounds and clearly has this one circled.
Justin Thomas (Top 5 +600)
JT might not win, but this number is flat-out disrespectful. He leads the Tour in proximity from 50–125 yards—exactly the type of shots we expect this week. That up-and-down grind fits JT’s profile perfectly.
If he finds a few fairways, he’ll spike. I trust him more than almost anyone from 100 yards and in, and his form is trending.
Viktor Hovland (Top 10 +450)
Hovland’s ball-striking has quietly rounded into form, and Oakmont suits his long iron precision and mental toughness.
He isn’t elite from 125 and in, which may matter. But if he continues to hit it this well off the tee, he’ll have plenty of mid-iron looks to separate. Think Oak Hill, Muirfield Village, Olympia Fields. This is that kind of test.
Final Thought: This One Will Get Ugly—Bet the Guys Who Love That
You can’t fake it at Oakmont. If your guy doesn’t have Dog in him, he’s toast. Between the fairway bunkers, ankle-deep rough, and lightning-fast greens, this will reward the sickos who grind through bogeys and save par from impossible spots.
This isn’t about who looks the part—it’s about who can embrace the chaos and find ways to stay in the mix. And when it gets late Sunday? The cream will rise and the best US Open picks from these predictions will cash and help you win big. So, LET IT RIDE!
