UFC 316 comes to us this weekend from Newark, New Jersey. Headlining the card is a pair of bantamweight title fight – one on the men’s side and one on the women’s. First, we’ll see Julianna Pena look to hold off the two-time Olympic champion Kayla Harrison. Then we’ll get the second installment of Merab Dvalishvili versus Sean O’Malley.
There’s plenty of other fights to like on this card, so we’ll hit that fight and dig through the rest of the card to give you our UFC 316 best bets. Come check out these UFC 316 picks for Saturday.
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UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs O’Malley – Predictions & Best Bets
Quillan Salkilld – Wins Inside the Distance (+160)
One of my favorite prop plays for the weekend comes early on Saturday’s card. Quillan Salkilld is as hot as fresh prospects come right now. After getting his contract on Dana White’s Contender Series, he won his UFC with a 19 second knockout of Anshul Jubli. The thing is that he actually is much better on the ground than he is with his hands. He should have advantages over Yanal Ashmouz with both in this one.
Serghei Spivac ML (-140) vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta
If we’re sticking with straight moneylines, there is no place I would rather be than a play on Serghei Spivac. The Maldovan fighter is excellent on the ground. And that’s not just with his takedowns, but the big man has an excellent submission game. Most importantly, he’s smart in the way that he gameplans. Up against a pure striker with a questionable ground game, I love Spivac here.
Merab Dvalishvili – Wins via Decision (-150)
In the main event, I’m siding with the champion, Merab Dvalishvili. The main reason is that I just can’t see O’Malley making enough adjustments to keep the wrestling and cario of Merab at bay and off the scorecards. However, rather than paying a huge -270 pricetag for the champ in what should be a much closer fight, we’ll look to the decision prop. It comes in closer to the line I like and is likely the only way that Merab wins anyways.
Joe Pyfer – Wins via (T)KO (+280)
We’re getting a big number on Joe Pyfer’s KO prop. I think the reason has to be the durability of Kelvin Gastelum. However, it’s been a minute since Gastelum has faced a middleweight with the heft in his hands that Pyfer has. In that time, he’s taken a bit of damage. This play is using the assumption that the damage may have finally started to add up.
Andreas Gustafsson ML (+160) vs Khaos Williams
Another straight moneyline I like is the newcomer Andreas Gustafsson. Both of these guys like to swing them, but I like the way that Gustafsson brings the fight a bit better. He loves to press his opponents against the cage and wear on them. In the meantime, he does a lot of damage in the clinch. Williams much prefers to be at distance and to look to land straight shots. The crowding should not only take away the shots he likes, but should also zap the power for later in the fight.
Kayla Harrison – Wins via (T)KO (+300)
The big swing I’m taking this week is the challenger Kayla Harrison by (T)KO. I think her grappling is much better than that of Julianna Pena’s and assume she’ll wind up in a lot of top positions here. Additionally, I know that Pena has a strong jiu jitsu game and may just avoid all the submissions. Finally, it’s also possible that we get the TKO here because Harrison would love nothing more than to inflict pain following all Pena’s trash talk this week.
If you’d like even more UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs O’Malley bets, be sure to check out the MMA Gambling Podcast. The guys are dropping weekly episodes to make you the smartest guy at the bar.
