While the UFC continues to be the king when it comes to MMA and gambling, there is more MMA than ever to bet on now. Promotions all over the world as well as domestic ones are showing up in sportsbooks. The advantage here is that the data is usually quite a bit less sharp than when you’re making MMA predictions for the UFC. So we’ve decided to dig into some each week to get you started on your regional MMA journey. This week we head overseas for LFA 209 from Cuiaba, Mato Grosso, Brazil for our regional MMA pick.
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MMA Regional Pick of the Week: LFA 209
LFA Welterweight Fight: Joseilton Santos vs Carlos Petruzzella
Card Start Time: Saturday (5/24), 5:00pm EST (UFC Fight Pass)
Perhaps my favorite line of the whole week comes to us from Brazil. Joseilton Santos opened as a +185 underdog and the public smartly got all over it. He’s down to just being a slight underdog, but I still think there’s tons of value on him there.
Carlos Petruzzella comes to the promotion by way of Samurai Fight House in Argentina. That smaller promotion put him in a number of mismatches that has made him look like a world beater. However, if you watch those fights, you can see a number of weaknesses. He leaves himself open to big counters and I’m not sold on his wrestling.
Meanwhile, if there’s someone who could exploit those weaknesses, it’s Santos. He throws bombs, particularly on the counters. It’ll probably only take one big one to end this fight.
LFA 209 Pick: Joseilton Santos ML (+115)
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If you’d like even more info to help make your MMA and UFC picks and predictions for LFA 209, check out the MMA Gambling Podcast. They’re dropping episodes five days a week to make you the smartest guy/gal at the bar.
